This year is officially a 2 horse race.

[Loudstrat]

Yes. Form never changes, and players never get injured.

And OP is an idiot. But a genius compared to Bunniesman. Souffs top 3 :lol::lol::lol:

 

[Elektrik Shock]

Origin will rob both teams of quality and disrupt them for 6-8 weeks, if they are still 1st & 2nd after that, shut the gate and just skip ahead and play the GF. I think they meet in Round 12, will be a belter.

 

[lockyno1]

Such a thing won't exist for a while.

You come 5th or 6th you get a home final at Brookie or SFS, you are the one team I worry about especially if Foran, Stewart (X2) and TRex are fit.

 

[wibble]

Broncos and Storm are certainly looking good to make the top 8. A few more wins and missing the top 4 would be unlikely.

But great as they are going, once you are in the top 4 you need 2 wins to make the GF and 3 to win the premiership, likely all against other teams in good form. That is tough to do, and accounts for the variety of premiership winners we have seen over the last decade or so, and the lack of back to back winners, even when a team dominates the regular season for a few years.

Lets say you rate the Storm an 75% probability to win each of their finals games (a very high probability vs other good teams in knock out pressure- very few teams win 75% of their finals over a couple of years period, even when doing well in the season), that would still mean they are less than an even chance to win the premiership (75% x 75% x 75% = (just over) 42% ).

And obviously that would mean you don't rate the Broncos such a high % to win all 3.

And if you rated Broncos a 75% probability to win their games up to the GF, when they don't play the Storm, and have the Storm and Broncos 1 and 2 on the ladder, they still have only about a 30% probability of meeting in the GF. It is the nature of tough knockout competition- it is difficult to be certain of results even if a team is in good form and winning most of its games.

 

[blaza88z]

don't give me that mathematics garbage ever again

 

[broncos70]

melbourne and manly and then daylight then the broncos and then daylight..and then more daylight..then others

 

[wibble]

don't give me that mathematics garbage ever again

Why not?

What is garbage about it?

Are you one of the willfully ignorant who is "proud" to be innumerate?
I even know teachers, who should know better, who say out loud how "bad" they are at mathematics, proudly displaying their ignorance in front of children. I hope if you are trying to sound tough by talking down your understanding of the world that you don't do that in front of your own children (if you have any).


If not, I'd recommend trying some remedial courses at TAFE or community college. You can probably gain a better understanding of rugby league with a little help with your numbers, but more importantly you will be better at managing finances, understanding basic economic arguments, planning building projects and many other essential and empowering activities. I can help you get started if you'd like?

 

[The Engineers Room]

It is way too early. They are the best two at the moment but that could change. There are some teams that are extremely unlikely to make it but I'd say 5 or 6 are still well in the hunt.

 

[anjado]

Melbourne and Manly are the best two sides in the competition. Brisbane i think are 3rd but they might lack the spark in the halves to go all the way. Cowboys are the team that really has the tools to challenge but lack the consistency.

 

[StormHi]

Still not sold on the donkeys but they did rise to the occasion the bumbling green monster showed is ugly head...... I think the warriors will come good and Manly is a threat for sure.

 

[Eels Dude]

If it's a two horse race it should be between the Broncos and the Cowboys.

 

[Usain Bolt]

The thing about the Broncos is their forward rotation is the best in the comp so they can hang in games even if they arent performing too well. Storm are more of a "If the big 3 fire" then the Storm will win. Its more likely the Storm will fall over in the finals than the Broncos. But its far from being a 2 horse race

 

[Evenflow]

Geez these threads really shit me to tears. While I'm more than happy with how my team is traveling at the moment there's a long long way to go before we can narrow it to only 2 teams.

We're not even a third of the way through the season and while there might only be a couple teams going very well right now you can bet your arse that a few of the teams that are under achieving atm will start to come good at the business end. As always it'll still be much more open come finals time than it is in round 7 every single year.

 

[jbl31649]

Similar thread was made last year. Didn't really pan out.

Dido!

Dumb dumb thread.
Simple question..
Are premierships won in March/April?

Again Dido!

So true, this time last season the Dragons looked unbeatable, come September they caused very little waves. On the other hands the Warriors started the season with a loss to a woeful Parramatta and ended kicking the minor premiers out of the finals.

That said the Sea Eagles despite being marred by injury in the early round of last season, looked pretty promising early.

Manly at full strength

Shoosh about Manly. Let us quitely go about our business like last year. Not favourites...but we got the kitty in the end! Remember Tigers came out of no where to win a GF.

f**k the Donkeys and the Drizzle. Yes, they're clearly the best 2 teams in the comp, but f**k 'em both anyway.

Broncs have always been there as contenders and always will. Still think Sharks are the Dark Horse though. Some thing about Captain Gal having a hard - on for a quality 5/8 - as long as Carney stays of the piss.

Origin will rob both teams of quality and disrupt them for 6-8 weeks, if they are still 1st & 2nd after that, shut the gate and just skip ahead and play the GF. I think they meet in Round 12, will be a belter.

Was the best period for Manly last year. We won many of games cause the Bronc's, Cow Girls were low on numbers.

You come 5th or 6th you get a home final at Brookie or SFS, you are the one team I worry about especially if Foran, Stewart (X2) and TRex are fit.

3/6 only had RD 1 with full strength. Same spot position last year. However Bunnies do concern me. Fat boy Inglis going to the back has changed that side.....for the better!

Melbourne and Manly are the best two sides in the competition. Brisbane i think are 3rd but they might lack the spark in the halves to go all the way. Cowboys are the team that really has the tools to challenge but lack the consistency.

Would say Storm is the best by far at the moment. No other team is even close at this early stage. But SOO will effect things!

 

[oval]

The 2 News Ltd clubs on top, who'd a thunk it! Both with a whole lotta cash at their disposal, a potential fan base of 5 million or so people, and the rub of the green.

I hope and pray that the mighty Sea Eagles DESTROY them. Again.

 

[miccle]

We're close to equal with Melbourne on the table in stats alone. Anyone who thinks we've been close to them on form/performance is kidding themselves.

Brisbane have played ordinary football but have ground out some close, and ugly, wins. Precisely what you should be doing at this point in the season. Plenty of other teams have looked far better than us in patches throughout the opening rounds, despite not being as consistent.

 

[carcharias]

It is not a 2 horse race. Way too early to make that call.

Souths are making our charge up the ladder. I could see us easily finishing 3rd after 26 rounds.

It might be a 3 horse race then, but it's certainly not a 2 horse race now.

I'd like to think that was a joke.

Sadly though ... Well.

 

[Bretto]

Broncos have not been great this season. As miccle said, they've ground out a few ugly wins, but wins all the same. They've got a lot of work to do to compete with Melbourne.

I think Manly, Cowboys on their day, Warriors on their day, Tigers on their day, Sharks - are all chances of doing well, but they've just gotta put together a few consistent games. Sharks are starting to now and are looking good.

What do you think happens to Melbournes' form if Billy Slater does his ACL this weekend and is out for the season?

 

[pennywisealfie]

If its Billy, it won't hurt them too bad, but if Cronk or Smith go down, Storm are getting beat by 30+ every week.

 

[Bretto]

If its Billy, it won't hurt them too bad, but if Cronk or Smith go down, Storm are getting beat by 30+ every week.

You reckon? I reckon Slater has a lot to do with their defensive positional play, calling from the back. I think they lose a lot of their defensive structure, which is the backbone of their entire game. I could be wrong.