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Unlucky?

Hindmarshisgod2

Juniors
Messages
1,427
What percentages of luck, resources, talent and coaching do you need to build a team to win a premiership???

I reckon
50% talent
20% coaching
20% resources
10% luck
 

Twizzle

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
153,342
What percentages of luck, resources, talent and coaching do you need to build a team to win a premiership???

I reckon
50% talent
20% coaching
20% resources
10% luck

interresting, lets look at the chooks

they get plenty of talent
terrible coach for mine but some here think he'd be an upgrade on BA
they are the most heavily resourced club in the NRL
luck ? maybe
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,379
Bennett lost Inglis and Burgess in his first season from memory as well.

GI pulled the pin in like Round 6 and Sam Burgess was medically retired with a busted shoulder.
Would’ve freed up plenty of cap space, which is the real currency, not star players. It’s easy to buy/keep players if you’ve got cap space. Look at the annual recruitment by the likes of Canterbury and Wests.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,379
What percentages of luck, resources, talent and coaching do you need to build a team to win a premiership???

I reckon
50% talent
20% coaching
20% resources
10% luck
Resources aren’t separate from playing talent or coaching. Resources are how you get those things. The salary cap at least provides the majority of currency for accumulating player talent, so resources outside the cap provide an advantage on top of that. How much depends on the club. Some clubs have more access to intangibles like investment opportunities, accommodation or jobs for family members that directly circumvent the cap. Others have far more resources devoted to staff (i.e. salaries and ‘consultancy fees’) to help recruit the best juniors in Australia and New Zealand. These players get paid so little (outside the NRL salary cap) that employment and housing benefits make a huge difference to which players a club gains or keeps in the face of rival offers. It’s the same with NRLW players.
 

lucablight

First Grade
Messages
6,522
I’m not trying to show Bennett isn’t a good coach, I’m trying to show you how the arbitrary standards you apply to Brad Arthur are meaningless, because when applied to Bennett they don’t show anything. Obviously Bennett is a great coach. I also think Brad Arthur is a good one.

No coach developed that system. It is a whole club effort, requiring massive resources. Cleary’s career prior to returning to Penrith compared to the last four years is chalk and cheese. Much like Bennett’s first stint at Brisbane (5 from 5 grand final wins) compared to his career since (1 from 3). It shows the club is a much bigger factor than the coach, but merkins refuse to recognise it, because of what it says about our club.
I’d say if you’re a first grade NRL coach it’s up to you to maximise the potential of the playing squad you have. You also need to surround yourself with the right people to be able to do that. It’s every NRL clubs aspiration to try and build towards a premiership. How long do you think a first grade coach should be given before you see if you can find someone who can do those things better than what you have now?
Your argument about it entirely coming down to resources is self defeating. I reject the premise that any coach will do as good a job as another if given the same amount of resources. If coaches aren’t an important factor in how the resources are utilised why haven’t Brisbane won a competition since Bennett left? Why did Fittler get a spoon with the Roosters? Why did the Panthers meander for 17 years before finally getting their act together? Yes the club as a whole matters but so does the coaching.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,379
I’d say if you’re a first grade NRL coach it’s up to you to maximise the potential of the playing squad you have.
Sure but for an outside observer how do you determine the potential of the playing squad?
You also need to surround yourself with the right people to be able to do that.
There is huge demand for the 'right people', so they cost a lot more than the 'wrong people'.
It’s every NRL clubs aspiration to try and build towards a premiership. How long do you think a first grade coach should be given before you see if you can find someone who can do those things better than what you have now?
Is it possible to maximise the squad's potential every year and still fail to win premierships because other squads with more potential are being maximised? Bennet's premiership drought is longer than Brad Arthur's entire career. Does Bennett move on because those clubs think he failed? I'm certain he moves on because he knows the premiership window closed and he doesn't want to waste his time at a club without a realistic chance of winning.
Your argument about it entirely coming down to resources is self defeating.
You say that because you continually misrepresent my argument. We could've won a premiership under Arthur just as Newcastle and Souths could have won under Bennett. What was lacking during those premiership windows was luck.
I reject the premise that any coach will do as good a job as another if given the same amount of resources.
Well that's good because it's not my assertion. Some coaches are obviously better than others. But every coach has different amounts of luck in a given year.
If coaches aren’t an important factor in how the resources are utilised why haven’t Brisbane won a competition since Bennett left?
Why hasn't Bennett won a premiership since 2010?
Why did Fittler get a spoon with the Roosters?
Same reason Robinson only won six games in 2016.
Why did the Panthers meander for 17 years before finally getting their act together?
Honestly, I think they got a massive boost in resources in 2012. A club's level of resourcing isn't static. Look at the Eels under Arthur pre-2019 compared to our performance since.
Yes the club as a whole matters but so does the coaching.
Agreed. But a feature of the best coaches is that they only go to clubs (or remain there) when they have a realistic chance at winning. This is why Bennett would be willing to leave the Dolphins, because they are still a few years away. It's why I'd be surprised if he came to Parra before 2026, if at all. It's why Cleary was willing to go to a club like the Tigers when he hadn't won anything. It's why Maguire went there after the 2014 gloss wore off. It's why Ricky Stuart went to Parra and then Canberra, because he didn't have better options. And it's why Arthur is happy to remain at Parra with our premiership window closed. Because his alternatives will be clubs like Newcastle or Souths.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,379
You appreciate how incredibly dumb that post was though, right?
I often overestimate you merkins' ability to comprehend. I now believe you read it to mean I think star players don't matter. My point is that if you lose star players you likely have the cap space to sign new ones or retain emerging talents, which was the case with Souths after 2019. Souths had a great crop of juniors coming through and Bennett was able to retain them plus bring in Latrell Mitchell. Don't forget Souths were strong enough for Seibold to get them into the preliminary final in 2018. But by 2019 Burgess, Inglis and Sutton were in their thirties. They were on the decline anyway, and Bennett would've loved being able to clear them off the cap. This let him keep or acquire all the merkins that played in the 2021 grand final. There was some quality in that squad who wouldn't have been if Burgess (33 in 2021) and Inglis (34 in 2021) were still there:

Arrow
Turgess
Cook
Gagai
Graham
Johnston
Koloamatangi
Mitchell
Murray
Reynolds
Su'a
Tatola
Walker

So my point is that losing expensive players just means you can afford to buy new ones. I'm sorry I didn't spell it out for you the first time.
 

DaveMc

Juniors
Messages
1,251
I often overestimate you merkins' ability to comprehend. I now believe you read it to mean I think star players don't matter.
So my point is that losing expensive players just means you can afford to buy new ones. I'm sorry I didn't spell it out for you the first time.
No, you’re right, that’s my bad. Easy for you to think that using the exact words “Would’ve freed up plenty of cap space, which is the real currency, not star players”, and using Wests and Canterbury as examples for the point, should’ve been interpreted to mean something entirely different to what you said.

For a bloke who rates his own intellect highly, you are extremely f**king poor at getting a point across. I guess I overestimated your ability to make a point clearly.
 
Last edited:

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,379
No, you’re right, that’s my bad. Easy for you to think that using the exact words “Would’ve freed up plenty of cap space, which is the real currency, not star players”, and using Wests and Canterbury as examples for the point, to mean something entirely different to what you said.
It means exactly what I said. Wests and Canterbury buy a lot of players because their existing players weren't worth keeping. Clubs with high squad turnover always recruit more quality than teams with stable squads.

For big clubs, losing a star means they have room to buy another one. Souths lost Inglis and brought in Mitchell. The Roosters were able to spend big on Smith, Young and Leniu because they have other big names clearing the decks. We will be able to recruit heavily for 2026 because the likes of Gutherson, RCG, Hopgood and Ofahengaue will be off the books, while Sivo and Lane will either be gone or staying on much cheaper mutual options.

The individual players themselves don't really matter because they are replaceable.
For a bloke who rates his own intellect highly, you are extremely f**king poor at getting a point across. I guess I overestimated your ability to make a point clearly.
This is definitely my weak point. I write for the smarter posters around here and get frustrated when you dumber ones draw the wrong conclusions.
 

DaveMc

Juniors
Messages
1,251
It means exactly what I said. Wests and Canterbury buy a lot of players because their existing players weren't worth keeping. Clubs with high squad turnover always recruit more quality than teams with stable squads.

For big clubs, losing a star means they have room to buy another one. Souths lost Inglis and brought in Mitchell. The Roosters were able to spend big on Smith, Young and Leniu because they have other big names clearing the decks. We will be able to recruit heavily for 2026 because the likes of Gutherson, RCG, Hopgood and Ofahengaue will be off the books, while Sivo and Lane will either be gone or staying on much cheaper mutual options.

The individual players themselves don't really matter because they are replaceable.

This is definitely my weak point. I write for the smarter posters around here and get frustrated when you dumber ones draw the wrong conclusions.
This point is so stupid that I am wondering if you’re just trolling now? Because your constant references to your high intelligence are incompatible with the point you make here.

Wests and Canterbury have not played finals football in their collective past 19 seasons. In that time, each club has turned over their entire squads, perhaps multiple times. How has having a lot of cap space worked well for them?

Compare it to the clubs that have had and maintained star players over the same period. Do you think the Storm administration ever said “gee, I wish we didn’t have Cameron Smith and Billy Slater because we would’ve been much better off with their salaries as spare cap to spend on some replacements”?

I can comprehend your point. It’s just f**king stupid.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
91,379
This point is so stupid that I am wondering if you’re just trolling now? Because your constant references to your high intelligence are incompatible with the point you make here.
The references to high intelligence are self-deprecating humour. What kind of deadshit brags about being smart on a footy forum ffs
Wests and Canterbury have not played finals football in their collective past 19 seasons. In that time, each club has turned over their entire squads, perhaps multiple times. How has having a lot of cap space worked well for them?
It shows that replacing an overpaid star or two each year doesn't help if the squad isn't strong. Which is a point I've made repeatedly on this forum.
Compare it to the clubs that have had and maintained star players over the same period. Do you think the Storm administration ever said “gee, I wish we didn’t have Cameron Smith and Billy Slater because we would’ve been much better off with their salaries as spare cap to spend on some replacements”?
They have definitely let some quality players go to focus on keeping others. They are strong every year because they don't overpay top 30 players and because they spend so much on junior recruitment. So whenever they lose a star they're either (rarely) bringing in an established player (e.g. Coates) or more often upgrading a junior star they poached into their pathways (e.g. Grant, Papenhuyzen, Munster, Welch).
I can comprehend your point. It’s just f**king stupid.
Yeah must be me
 

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