Unlucky?

[Poupou Escobar]

Since 1986 there have been 38 grand finals, including the Super League one in '97. These have been contested by 15 clubs, who all still exist today (I am including the merged Dragons and Tigers clubs with their predecessors, which is easy since the Magpies and Steelers appeared in no deciders since '86).

Here's how the results look per team, ranked by appearances:

Club	Appearances since 1986	Wins	Win rate
Storm	10	6	60%
Broncos	8	6	75%
Seagulls	8	4	50%
Chooks	8	4	50%
Bulldogs	7	3	43%
Panthers	7	5	71%
Raiders	6	3	50%
Dragons	5	1	20%
Cowboys	3	1	33%
Eels	3	0	0%
Tigers	3	1	33%
Knights	2	2	100%
Bunnies	2	1	50%
Sharks	2	1	50%
Warriors	2	0	0%

Five of these clubs won exactly 50% of their appearances in that time. Another six won half of their grand finals plus or minus one win. That leaves four clubs with significantly more or less than 50% win rate:

Broncos 75% (6/8)
Panthers 71% (5/7)
Dragons 20% (1/5)
Eels 0% (0/3)

How lucky (Broncos and Panthers) or unlucky (Dragons and Eels) are these four clubs. And if not luck, what is the reason for the discrepancy?

 

[lucablight]

It’s interesting how the Dragons were in a similar spot to us in the mid to late 2000s (promising roster, choker tag) but then they hired one of the best coaches in Bennett and won a competition and then haven’t done anything since.
Similarly the Broncos haven’t won a competition either since Bennett left despite having access to the best resources. It’s almost as if coaching and decision making is an important part of success and so is how you manage the resources you have.
Penrith obviously didn’t magically find a pot of gold after 2019. They changed their approach on how they were managing their resources in a way that set them up for success. This is what fans want to see from our club.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Stormz's should be 60%.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Stormz's should be 60%.

ffs Excel!!!!

 

[T-Boon]

He made a lot of names up as well. This is gasfarting.

 

[T-Boon]

The is no luck involved in the broncos and panthers %. They both had easily the best teams in their strong eras due to crazy good Jnr bases.
The Eels and Dragons had the worst teams in each of the their GFs bar the 2001 - which was the only choke.

 

[hindy111]

Since 1986 there have been 38 grand finals, including the Super League one in '97. These have been contested by 15 clubs, who all still exist today (I am including the merged Dragons and Tigers clubs with their predecessors, which is easy since the Magpies and Steelers appeared in no deciders since '86).

Here's how the results look per team, ranked by appearances:

Club	Appearances since 1986	Wins	Win rate
Storm	10	6	60%
Broncos	8	6	75%
Seagulls	8	4	50%
Chooks	8	4	50%
Bulldogs	7	3	43%
Panthers	7	5	71%
Raiders	6	3	50%
Dragons	5	1	20%
Cowboys	3	1	33%
Eels	3	0	0%
Tigers	3	1	33%
Knights	2	2	100%
Bunnies	2	1	50%
Sharks	2	1	50%
Warriors	2	0	0%

Five of these clubs won exactly 50% of their appearances in that time. Another six won half of their grand finals plus or minus one win. That leaves four clubs with significantly more or less than 50% win rate:

Broncos 75% (6/8)
Panthers 71% (5/7)
Dragons 20% (1/5)
Eels 0% (0/3)

How lucky (Broncos and Panthers) or unlucky (Dragons and Eels) are these four clubs. And if not luck, what is the reason for the discrepancy?

Penrith where dominant all season and finished minor premiers. Probably a better indicator then one game.

Two of our grand finals we finished 4th with the 7th best differential and 8th. Id suggest we where lucky to make the finals. In saying that 2009 we where unlucky to play a team rorting the cap. 2001 we choked. We probably should of had 2 Grand final wins.

 

[hindy111]

2005 and 1998 where two years we should of probably won the comp also. For me 2005 was a huge missed opportunity.

 

[T-Boon]

Going off that study the coaches that would definitely be an upgrade would be: Bellamy, Bennett, Robinson, Cleary, Toovey, Madge, Flanagan…etc. conclusion, punt Arthur.

 

[the phantom menace]

Isn't there already a Stats thread...

How lucky (Broncos and Panthers) or unlucky (Dragons and Eels) are these four clubs. And if not luck, what is the reason for the discrepancy?

Did you watch any of those grand finals? The clubs with "luckier" win percentages played better on the day and won more of their matches. The one with "unluckier" win percentages player worse on the day and lost - like us.

Playing better comes from better coaching, better tactics, and getting the best individual performances from available players on the day. It's not rocket science to understand it's not the troll's excuse of "luck".

 

[the phantom menace]

And did you take the Storm's asterisk (*) year wins out of their percentage?

 

[King-Gutho94]

Be nice to make a GF and not be playing a future Immortal.

Johns, Smith/Slater, Cleary.

 

[lucablight]

Be nice to make a GF and not be playing a future Immortal.

Johns, Smith/Slater, Cleary.

Even those future immortals (aside from Johns) played in grand finals that they lost.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Be nice to make a GF and not be playing a future Immortal.

Johns, Smith/Slater, Cleary.

Would be even better to have a future immortal at some stage.

 

[emjaycee]

Would be even better to have a future immortal at some stage.

MArthur is coming.

 

[T-Boon]

Would be even better to have a future immortal at some stage.

He is in gaol

 

[Poupou Escobar]

It’s interesting how the Dragons were in a similar spot to us in the mid to late 2000s (promising roster, choker tag) but then they hired one of the best coaches in Bennett and won a competition and then haven’t done anything since.

They were good enough to make four grand finals between ‘86 and ‘10 though. But lost all of them.

Newcastle also hired Bennett and made zero grand finals, despite being 2 from 2 since ‘86.

Then Souths hired Bennett and went 0 from 1 in a grand final. Seven years earlier they were 1 from 1 with Maguire. Is hiring Bennett really the silver bullet?

Similarly the Broncos haven’t won a competition either since Bennett left despite having access to the best resources. It’s almost as if coaching and decision making is an important part of success and so is how you manage the resources you have.

Souths haven't won a premiership since Maguire left. Were they wrong to hire Bennett? He couldn't get it done unfortunately. He just didn't have what it takes.

Penrith obviously didn’t magically find a pot of gold after 2019. They changed their approach on how they were managing their resources in a way that set them up for success. This is what fans want to see from our club.

I think they did find a pot of gold, but they did it in 2012. It just wasn't until 2020 that it showed on the field. Michael Maguire or even Brad Arthur could've won with that squad. Maybe even Wayne Bennett.

 

[lucablight]

They were good enough to make four grand finals between ‘86 and ‘10 though. But lost all of them.

Newcastle also hired Bennett and made zero grand finals, despite being 2 from 2 since ‘86.

Then Souths hired Bennett and went 0 from 1 in a grand final. Seven years earlier they were 1 from 1 with Maguire. Is hiring Bennett really the silver bullet?

Souths haven't won a premiership since Maguire left. Were they wrong to hire Bennett? He couldn't get it done unfortunately. He just didn't have what it takes.

I think they did find a pot of gold, but they did it in 2012. It just wasn't until 2020 that it showed on the field. Michael Maguire or even Brad Arthur could've won with that squad. Maybe even Wayne Bennett.

Bennett did a great job to get that South Sydney side to the grand final. They did it without their marquee player as well. How are we going without ours? During his time at Newcastle he also made it to week 3 in his second year. How many times have we made it to week 3 during Arthur’s tenure? It’s baffling that you’re trying to cherry pick data to show that Bennett isn’t a good coach.
Bennett had 3 attempts to win a premiership at the Rabbitohs. How many has Arthur had? Your comparisons aren’t like for like.
I think Ivan Cleary deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done at the Panthers. It’s overly simplistic to say anyone could have won with that side. How well do their marquee players go at origin level? How many quality players have they lost and still managed to win three in a row? As I said it’s about utilising the resources you have at your disposal effectively. I don’t agree that anyone could have done that. I still maintain the Panthers team is greater than the sum of its parts. They’re a system team and it’s presumptuous to say any coach could have developed that system.

 

[King-Gutho94]

Bennett did a great job to get that South Sydney side to the grand final. They did it without their marquee player as well. How are we going without ours? During his time at Newcastle he also made it to week 3 in his second year. How many times have we made it to week 3 during Arthur’s tenure? It’s baffling that you’re trying to cherry pick data to show that Bennett isn’t a good coach.
Bennett had 3 attempts to win a premiership at the Rabbitohs. How many has Arthur had? Your comparisons aren’t like for like.
I think Ivan Cleary deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done at the Panthers. It’s overly simplistic to say anyone could have won with that side. How well do their marquee players go at origin level? How many quality players have they lost and still managed to win three in a row? As I said it’s about utilising the resources you have at your disposal effectively. I don’t agree that anyone could have done that. I still maintain the Panthers team is greater than the sum of its parts. They’re a system team and it’s presumptuous to say any coach could have developed that system.

Bennett lost Inglis and Burgess in his first season from memory as well.

GI pulled the pin in like Round 6 and Sam Burgess was medically retired with a busted shoulder.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Bennett did a great job to get that South Sydney side to the grand final. They did it without their marquee player as well. How are we going without ours? During his time at Newcastle he also made it to week 3 in his second year. How many times have we made it to week 3 during Arthur’s tenure? It’s baffling that you’re trying to cherry pick data to show that Bennett isn’t a good coach.

I’m not trying to show Bennett isn’t a good coach, I’m trying to show you how the arbitrary standards you apply to Brad Arthur are meaningless, because when applied to Bennett they don’t show anything. Obviously Bennett is a great coach. I also think Brad Arthur is a good one.

Bennett had 3 attempts to win a premiership at the Rabbitohs. How many has Arthur had? Your comparisons aren’t like for like.
I think Ivan Cleary deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done at the Panthers. It’s overly simplistic to say anyone could have won with that side. How well do their marquee players go at origin level? How many quality players have they lost and still managed to win three in a row? As I said it’s about utilising the resources you have at your disposal effectively. I don’t agree that anyone could have done that. I still maintain the Panthers team is greater than the sum of its parts. They’re a system team and it’s presumptuous to say any coach could have developed that system.

No coach developed that system. It is a whole club effort, requiring massive resources. Cleary’s career prior to returning to Penrith compared to the last four years is chalk and cheese. Much like Bennett’s first stint at Brisbane (5 from 5 grand final wins) compared to his career since (1 from 3). It shows the club is a much bigger factor than the coach, but merkins refuse to recognise it, because of what it says about our club.