What stats are most important to a position

[Lambretta]

I think Stats such as "(insert player's name) just became the first person to score in the left hand side of the field from a second cross field kick after the half back almost dropped the ball but didn't cos his name wasn't Ben who then grubbered, recovered, saw someone called Daniel in the stands eating an overpriced slice of pizza and then got cleaned up after the kick by a forward called Dorothy on a slightly overcast Thursday evening in Queensland" are super important

Especially one I've finished all the beer in the fridge and have turned to the bottle of the green stuff I found in the hard liquor cupboard.

 

[Frank Discussion]

The stats that the coaching staff of a club use and the stats that we see on TV are vastly different.

Clubs employ analysts and they have stats for everything. These analysts would be able to tell you for example where Jonathan Thurstons lowest effective tackle percentage is on the body (outside shoulder, left side, ball carrier right hand) off the top of their head.

Middle players for example are large scrutinised on their ability to hit and stick and not concede meters after contact in D. There are detailed stats and players live and die by their performance against those indicators but you will never see them.

 

[T-Boon]

Minimal penalties against is the most important stat. Lower the better.

There is some truth tho this and it is not great for the game as it means the referees interpretation of things is more important and influential than the playmaking. This is one of the reasons that everyone ends up blaming the referee for the outcome of the game.
Solution: Weighted penalties. You shouldn't always get both a kick for touch and a restart to the tackle count.

 

[nick87]

The stats that the coaching staff of a club use and the stats that we see on TV are vastly different.

Clubs employ analysts and they have stats for everything. These analysts would be able to tell you for example where Jonathan Thurstons lowest effective tackle percentage is on the body (outside shoulder, left side, ball carrier right hand) off the top of their head.

Middle players for example are large scrutinised on their ability to hit and stick and not concede meters after contact in D. There are detailed stats and players live and die by their performance against those indicators but you will never see them.

I've heard this from good sources and have no reason to doubt it, by why the f**k aren't fox or nine paying to get these stats? And be able to present them to their viewers the way American sports do?

 

[Russell Crowe's Band]

cos we can't have nice things nick

 

[T-Boon]

I've heard this from good sources and have no reason to doubt it, by why the f**k aren't fox or nine paying to get these stats? And be able to present them to their viewers the way American sports do?

Exactly, you should be able to look at an NRL box score and have a good idea of who had an excellent game as you do in American sport.
I mean how lame is the 'tackles' stat in league. Surely we can do better than that. All it tells you is what position a guy played.

 

[DiegoNT]

Exactly, you should be able to look at an NRL box score and have a good idea of who had an excellent game as you do in American sport.
I mean how lame is the 'tackles' stat in league. Surely we can do better than that. All it tells you is what position a guy played.

The biggest thing i hate about american sports is the over emphasis on stats. You cant break down who had a great game due to stats.
Think back to the sharks v cowboys semi. Gallen in the first half ran continously at scott and/or taumololo on every hit up he took. He seeked them out. He tired those 2 guys out so Cowboys go forward was stunted. What stats can show gallen dominating 2 opposing middle forwards, and the fact that these are 2 of the best middle forwards you'd ever see in our game. Stats cant quantify something like that. What about sam burgess in the 14 gf. What stats can quantify the effect of him playing on with an obvious serious injury, and how that spurred on his teammates especially his brothers (who statistically had better games). What stats can quantify the effect that had on the opposition. That a rough guy like graham can use all his dark arts to take out a key player yet it didn't work and had no effect on sams game? There's a lot of stats in rugby league but there's so much that can't be quantified into stats

 

[T-Boon]

The biggest thing i hate about american sports is the over emphasis on stats. You cant break down who had a great game due to stats.
Think back to the sharks v cowboys semi. Gallen in the first half ran continously at scott and/or taumololo on every hit up he took. He seeked them out. He tired those 2 guys out so Cowboys go forward was stunted. What stats can show gallen dominating 2 opposing middle forwards, and the fact that these are 2 of the best middle forwards you'd ever see in our game. Stats cant quantify something like that.

The effect of Gallen targeting them would show up in their stats with reduced hit ups or average metres per hit up in comparison to their normal statistical form.
But you are right in stating that statistics don't tell the whole story. For example Lebron James influence on the game doesn't always show up in the stats. And in the NBA if a player scores less than he ordinarily averages it hardly ever shows up in terms of the stats of the guy defending against him.
What should be the goal is to present the best stats you can to show the influence an individual has had on the game and the best team stats. I think the current NRL stats could be improved in this regard.

 

[nick87]

The biggest thing i hate about american sports is the over emphasis on stats. You cant break down who had a great game due to stats.
Think back to the sharks v cowboys semi. Gallen in the first half ran continously at scott and/or taumololo on every hit up he took. He seeked them out. He tired those 2 guys out so Cowboys go forward was stunted. What stats can show gallen dominating 2 opposing middle forwards, and the fact that these are 2 of the best middle forwards you'd ever see in our game. Stats cant quantify something like that. What about sam burgess in the 14 gf. What stats can quantify the effect of him playing on with an obvious serious injury, and how that spurred on his teammates especially his brothers (who statistically had better games). What stats can quantify the effect that had on the opposition. That a rough guy like graham can use all his dark arts to take out a key player yet it didn't work and had no effect on sams game? There's a lot of stats in rugby league but there's so much that can't be quantified into stats

If you don't think stats would be able to show what Gallen did that game, you are sadly misinformed about how advanced analytics works

If applied correctly you could easily identify how many times gallen ran at them, how many metres after contact he made doing so and then highlight the decrease in effectiveness on both sides of the ball those players had in the second half to highlight how effective the tactic was

That kind of scenario is exactly what advanced stats aims to achieve. A greater understanding of how, what, when and why of sports.

 

[Russell Crowe's Band]

yeah that would be heaps handy.

 

[DiegoNT]

If you don't think stats would be able to show what Gallen did that game, you are sadly misinformed about how advanced analytics works

If applied correctly you could easily identify how many times gallen ran at them, how many metres after contact he made doing so and then highlight the decrease in effectiveness on both sides of the ball those players had in the second half to highlight how effective the tactic was

That kind of scenario is exactly what advanced stats aims to achieve. A greater understanding of how, what, when and why of sports.

Would it though? Because gallen ran deliberately at scott and taumololo, both great middle defenders, would his metres after contact or fast play the ball stats have been as high as say a matt prior who would of took a more traditional aim at little man role? Does it cover the effect this has on his fellow forwards seeing gallen aim at taumololo ( just as lolo was recieving various player of the year awards) and get over the top off them. While I'm sure theres stats that could illustrate many things, simply looking at a performance is still the best way to judge a player, whether that's picking him for first grade/rep football, when negotiating how much he is worth for a contract, whether he needs to ne dropped etc. Stats will never beat simply watching a player in action

 

[nick87]

[

Would it though? Because gallen ran deliberately at scott and taumololo, both great middle defenders, would his metres after contact or fast play the ball stats have been as high as say a matt prior who would of took a more traditional aim at little man role? Does it cover the effect this has on his fellow forwards seeing gallen aim at taumololo ( just as lolo was recieving various player of the year awards) and get over the top off them. While I'm sure theres stats that could illustrate many things, simply looking at a performance is still the best way to judge a player, whether that's picking him for first grade/rep football, when negotiating how much he is worth for a contract, whether he needs to ne dropped etc. Stats will never beat simply watching a player in action

Yes, it would. As said, that's the entire point of advanced analytics.

No one is saying that you can just stop watching the games and just look at stats. That's some strawman, Charles Barkley bullshit right there. All stats aim to do is help provide physical evidence to support OR oppose a POV. They aren't designed to eliminate watching the game, they are designed to help players, coaches, media, fans understand what they are watching/seeing.

There isn't a better sports writer in the world than Zach Lowe and all he does is explain basketball in a more nuanced way using advanced analytics and explaining how those stats translate to what people see on he court. The NBA fan base is smarter and more knowledgeable because of him.

The simple reality is the war is already over here. This eye test v stat nerds stuff is stupid. And if it wasnt, the stat nerds gave the old timers a good ol flogging.

Advanced analytics won, as stated by a number of people in this thread the clubs HAVE this information now and use it to win and lose on Sundays. All that remains is for the media to shell out so that that level of analysis can be provided to the consumer for them to better understand the game and their players.

How can better educating the fan base of our code about who and what really matters and what really impacts the results in a RL game be a bad thing?

 

[nick87]

I mean, just as you keep harping on about this Gallen v Lolo thing.
As said, that's exactly what advanced stats do. With access to the advanced stats, you could look at Lolo's 2nd half output over the course of the season, then look at his output in the 2nd half after Gallen targetted him. Then you run his output against players throughout the season who had made "efforts" on Gallen to see if there is a trend... and maybe you find out that players who had to tackle Gallen more than 10, or 8, or 3 or whatever times in the first half had a 20% or 50% or 60% or whatever decrease in their average productivity in the second half,. and maybe you find out that the more times they have to tackle him, the more metres after contact HE makes

And then you can reasonably draw a conclusion that says, evidence clearly shows that Paul Gallen is able to wear out explosive middle forwards and here is the impact being forced to make tackle after tackle on Paul Gallen actually has on a player... extrapolate that out and you start figuring out how that impacts Wins and Loses. which is how the NBA and MLB for example can give you an EWA stat ( Estimated Wins Added), which basically tells you Paul Gallen gives a team an EWA of 3 or 4 or 5 of whatever estimated wins added per season.

the NRL is so far behind on this stuff at least in terms of what it gives to the consumer that it's down right embarrassing.

 

[DiegoNT]

I mean, just as you keep harping on about this Gallen v Lolo thing.
As said, that's exactly what advanced stats do. With access to the advanced stats, you could look at Lolo's 2nd half output over the course of the season, then look at his output in the 2nd half after Gallen targetted him. Then you run his output against players throughout the season who had made "efforts" on Gallen to see if there is a trend... and maybe you find out that players who had to tackle Gallen more than 10, or 8, or 3 or whatever times in the first half had a 20% or 50% or 60% or whatever decrease in their average productivity in the second half,. and maybe you find out that the more times they have to tackle him, the more metres after contact HE makes

And then you can reasonably draw a conclusion that says, evidence clearly shows that Paul Gallen is able to wear out explosive middle forwards and here is the impact being forced to make tackle after tackle on Paul Gallen actually has on a player... extrapolate that out and you start figuring out how that impacts Wins and Loses. which is how the NBA and MLB for example can give you an EWA stat ( Estimated Wins Added), which basically tells you Paul Gallen gives a team an EWA of 3 or 4 or 5 of whatever estimated wins added per season.

the NRL is so far behind on this stuff at least in terms of what it gives to the consumer that it's down right embarrassing.

So if i had a phd in advanced mathematics, access to hundreds of data points, hundreds of man hours to process said data, I'd get to the conclusion that Gallen targetting his main opposite rival will tire him out and reduce his impact. Amazing that coaches haven't called for half time to be extended by an hour so the mathematicians can process the data and tell them how to proceed in the 2nd half.

 

[T-Boon]

I mean, just as you keep harping on about this Gallen v Lolo thing.
As said, that's exactly what advanced stats do. With access to the advanced stats, you could look at Lolo's 2nd half output over the course of the season, then look at his output in the 2nd half after Gallen targetted him. Then you run his output against players throughout the season who had made "efforts" on Gallen to see if there is a trend... and maybe you find out that players who had to tackle Gallen more than 10, or 8, or 3 or whatever times in the first half had a 20% or 50% or 60% or whatever decrease in their average productivity in the second half,. and maybe you find out that the more times they have to tackle him, the more metres after contact HE makes

And then you can reasonably draw a conclusion that says, evidence clearly shows that Paul Gallen is able to wear out explosive middle forwards and here is the impact being forced to make tackle after tackle on Paul Gallen actually has on a player... extrapolate that out and you start figuring out how that impacts Wins and Loses. which is how the NBA and MLB for example can give you an EWA stat ( Estimated Wins Added), which basically tells you Paul Gallen gives a team an EWA of 3 or 4 or 5 of whatever estimated wins added per season.

the NRL is so far behind on this stuff at least in terms of what it gives to the consumer that it's down right embarrassing.

This is the sort of shit commentators should be talking about rather than how bad the referees were. Educate the commentators. Then the fans. It builds the game up.

 

[POPEYE]

In a game as simple as RL stats are nothing but bling, opportunities created and taken are all that matter. If all players had good or bad games on the same day stats might make a difference, as it is they're as relevant as MOM awards and just about as f**king fickle

Watch a game live for the entertainment and record/watch a replay like the players do to see what really won or lost the day . . . hindsight is a great thing if all you care about is the result

 

[ed-grimley]

In a game as simple as RL stats are nothing but bling, opportunities created and taken are all that matter. If all players had good or bad games on the same day stats might make a difference, as it is they're as relevant as MOM awards and just about as f**king fickle

Watch a game live for the entertainment and record/watch a replay like the players do to see what really won or lost the day . . . hindsight is a great thing if all you care about is the result

Isn't this what every fan wants ultimately - to see their team win on the day?
If a player misses five tackles in a game and his team loses he may get dropped next week. If he scores the winning try all is forgiven and the guy's a f**king hero.
In a GF only one stat may relevant - ask Scott Sattler or Ben Hunt.

 

[DiegoNT]

This is the sort of shit commentators should be talking about rather than how bad the referees were. Educate the commentators. Then the fans. It builds the game up.

Jesus Christ i hope you never gain any influence on the running of rugby league.
While the droning on about refs can be annoying, at the end of the day it's all about the emotion and drama, a big reason why we watch sport. I'd much rather commentators get caught up in that then drone on endlessly about stats.
The day a commentator says 'gallen has run at taumololo 10 times in the first half reducing taumololo's offensive output by 50%. When gallen usually runs at his opposite number more then 10 times it reduces their effectiveness by 30%, and when taumololo has to tackle his opposite numbers more then 10 times it usually reduces his effectiveness by 25% so what we are seeing today is quite remarkable' over a simple 'gallen has taken it to taumololo all game and the big guy is gassed' is the day we've really lost the plot

 

[nick87]

So if i had a phd in advanced mathematics, access to hundreds of data points, hundreds of man hours to process said data, I'd get to the conclusion that Gallen targetting his main opposite rival will tire him out and reduce his impact. Amazing that coaches haven't called for half time to be extended by an hour so the mathematicians can process the data and tell them how to proceed in the 2nd half.

Haha. May I ask how old you are? I'm setting the overs/unders on 65

 

[DiegoNT]

Haha. May I ask how old you are? I'm setting the overs/unders on 65

And you'd be way off.
Maybe if you compiled all the data from all my post's, check the post's which talk about whichever player's i liked as kid etc and cross referenced all that data you might get a bit closer to my age