Where to from here?

[franklin2323]

Your optimism is admirable.

Bump...

Blake and Kikau together are unstoppable.

 

[tripster]

Looking at the ladder, if we can beat the Sharks that will put a two wins between us and them, and likely help ensure that they don't jump us later in the season into the top 4.

We have a significantly better F/A than the Sharks as well, which will mean if we can beat them, it'll be like a 3 win gap.

We also now have a 1 win gap against the Warriors, with the Warriors also having shocking F/A (making it effectively a two win gap).

Lot's hope that the Gold Coast can pull off some magic against the Roosters next weekend.

 

[tripster]

After the Manly game it looked likely that we would lose both the Warriors and Sharks games, and the Brisbane game was always 50/50 (see the original analysis at the start of the thread). Funnily enough, despite the Brisbane game being terrible for our for and against, we at least won the Warriors game against all expectation.

What do we think of the remaining games? I think it now looks like:

- rd 20: Manly @ Manly - we should win this one, although Manly showed against the Storm that it won't be easy. Hook will presumably put a rocket up the team after last week and I expect we will come out firing. Manly are now hope of making the finals so will only be playing for pride (and may stop putting in if it gets too tough).

- rd 21: Raiders @ Penrith - Raiders' final chances are finished. Question is whether they also play for pride or try to make a statement. With Hodgson back steering them around Raiders are looking like a completely different (and very dangerous) side. It’ll be a very different game to when we played them in Canberra. I think we still have to say this game is 50/50.

- rd 22: Titans @ Gold Coast. We should win this one.

- rd 23: Knights @ Penrith: We should win this one - it is our last home game of the season.

- rd 24: Warriors @ NZ: This is going to be tough. Warriors might be fighting for a top 4 spot. They will also be keen to take it to us after we toweled them up earlier in the year. However hopefully we have RCG back and no more injuries. Let’s say this is 50/50.

- rd 25: Storm @ Melbourne. We will have to break a very long hoodoo to be able to win down there, and Storm are again looking like genuine contenders. We lose this one.

You'd have to think we will therefore get at least 3 more wins this season. I'd say that is the worst case.

I'd say the likely case, assuming we win either of the Raiders or Warriors games but not both, and assuming the other 3 wins, is that we win 4 more games this year, and finish on 15 wins.

 

[TheFrog]

- rd 20: Manly @ Manly - we should win this one, although Manly showed against the Storm that it won't be easy. Hook will presumably put a rocket up the team after last week and I expect we will come out firing. Manly are now hope of making the finals so will only be playing for pride (and may stop putting in if it gets too tough).

I don't think Hook needs make any Churchillian speeches, just address what went wrong last game. Which was quite a lot. Back three out of position led to three tries. Intercepts two more. Poor defence close to the line, we had our starters on both times this happened. Crichton might have done his dash otherwise he needs to know when to drop back. Milford had a picnic with the gaps behing the first line and DCE will have taken notes.

 

[tripster]

Not a single result has gone our way this weekend.

Raiders would have got the Sharks if not for an absolutely shocking refereeing performance, but Sharks got the win.

Cowboys came out firing against the Dragons but weren’t good enough over 80 mins.

Storm beat the Warriors, and Roosters are handing out a hammering to Manly.

 

[franklin2323]

Not a single result has gone our way this weekend.

Raiders would have got the Sharks if not for an absolutely shocking refereeing performance, but Sharks got the win.

Cowboys came out firing against the Dragons but weren’t good enough over 80 mins.

Storm beat the Warriors, and Roosters are handing out a hammering to Manly.

No. Still 4 points off 1st so who knows how it ends. Still plenty to go in this season

 

[OldPanther]

No. Still 4 points off 1st so who knows how it ends. Still plenty to go in this season

Sounds like what happened with the Broncos. They'll come out firing next week.

 

[franklin2323]

Sounds like what happened with the Broncos. They'll come out firing next week.

On the Broncos. They play Sharks this week. We have a better F/A then both. If the Broncs win. Then we win we jump to 5th.

Souffs after Parra. Play Broncs. Roosters and Storm. Still have another v their bogey team WT's still.

Dragons play Roosters. Storm play Sharks still. So anyone in the 8 can finish from 1st-8th. Good finish coming up

 

[OldPanther]

On the Broncos. They play Sharks this week. We have a better F/A then both. If the Broncs win. Then we win we jump to 5th.

Souffs after Parra. Play Broncs. Roosters and Storm. Still have another v their bogey team WT's still.

Dragons play Roosters. Storm play Sharks still. So anyone in the 8 can finish from 1st-8th. Good finish coming up

This is going to be a crazy month of footy.

 

[tripster]

No. Still 4 points off 1st so who knows how it ends. Still plenty to go in this season

Plenty to go but we only make top 4 if we win all of our games and other results go our way. Winning all our games is no longer enough.

 

[Blade23]

We will finish where we deserve too without relying on other results.
If we are good enough we will finish top 4.

 

[OldPanther]

We will finish where we deserve too without relying on other results.
If we are good enough we will finish top 4.

We certainly have the potential talent.

 

[franklin2323]

We will finish where we deserve too without relying on other results.
If we are good enough we will finish top 4.

Exactly we lost to Cowboys and Bulldogs before Origin started. So that is why we are here now

 

[franklin2323]

Plenty to go but we only make top 4 if we win all of our games and other results go our way. Winning all our games is no longer enough.

The teams all above us have enough games v each other to drop one but no more then that

 

[TheFrog]

Exactly we lost to Cowboys and Bulldogs before Origin started. So that is why we are here now

Three losses to bottom 4 sides, so far. A chance to improve on that number next week.

 

[franklin2323]

Three losses to bottom 4 sides, so far. A chance to improve on that number next week.

That is the sort of stuff that affects where you finish. That side of things was getting better. Was too be expected given the changes we had. No more injures and DWZ and RCG back and we can still give the comp a shake

 

[Kilkenny]

That is the sort of stuff that affects where you finish. That side of things was getting better. Was too be expected given the changes we had. No more injures and DWZ and RCG back and we can still give the comp a shake

Our expectations have never been realistic and as I have always said we are still at least one or two real quality players away from being a premiership contender. Given our current roster, fully fit if you added the likes of a Latrell Michell and Marty Taupau (you can substitute other quality players as you please) then we may have every reason to expect to be a serious premiership threat.

 

[franklin2323]

Our expectations have never been realistic and as I have always said we are still at least one or two real quality players away from being a premiership contender. Given our current roster, fully fit if you added the likes of a Latrell Michell and Marty Taupau (you can substitute other quality players as you please) then we may have every reason to expect to be a serious premiership threat.

A fully fit Edwards developing some attack. Blake not missing 1/3 of the season and didn't know where we'd end up