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Who is/isn't finals bound.

_Johnsy

Referee
Messages
28,106
Who is finals bound ??????
Let me begin by saying that the list below, the 2 points from the bye this round has already been awarded. Away games in red. Some of the games are held at ANZ (eg. Tigers V Bulldogs), I was not 100% sure if that was an away game or not, TBH, I don’t think it makes that much of a difference whose home game those particular ones are.

I have assumed that each side needs to 28 points to qualify for the finals.

Roosters 26 points, need one win from 9 games – certainty to qualify
Titans, RAIDERS, Manly, COWBOYS, Eels, STORM, SHARKS, Souths, Dragons
Sharks 26 points, need 2 wins from 9 games - certainty to qualify
Manly, Knights, BRONCOS, Dragons, Souths, WARRIORS, Roosters, TIGERS, Cowboys
Manly 24 points, need 2 wins from 10 games – certainty to qualify
TITANS, SHARKS, Eels, ROOSTERS, Panthers, Storm, Souths, Tigers, Titans, Panthers
Melbourne 22 points, need 3 wins from 10 games - certainty to qualify
Raiders, TIGERS, Dragons, WARRIORS, Titans, MANLY, Roosters, PANTHERS, KNIGHTS, Souths
Broncos 21 points need 4 wins from 9 games – should qualify
Bulldogs, COWBOYS, Sharks, Raiders, WARRIORS, Dragons, Titans, BULLDOGS, Knights
Dragons 20 points, need 4 wins from 10 games – should qualify
KNIGHTS, Raiders, STORM, Bulldogs, SHARKS, Tigers, BRONCOS, Warriors, Eels, ROOSTERS
Titans 20 points, need 4 wins from 10 games – should qualify
Manly, ROOSTERS, Panthers, RAIDERS, STORM, Knights, COWBOYS, BRONCOS, MANLY, Tigers
Eels 18 points, need 5 wins from 9 games – fighting for a spot.
Panthers, SOUTHS, Cowboys, KNIGHTS, ROOSTERS, Tigers, BULLDOGS, DRAGONS, Warriors
Tigers 18 points, need 5 wins from 9 games - fighting for a spot
Storm, SOUTHS, PANTHERS, Bulldogs, DRAGONS, EELS, Manly, Sharks, TITANS
Panthers 17 points, need 6 wins from 10 games – in danger
EELS, Knights, TITANS, Tigers, MANLY, RAIDERS, Bulldogs, Storm, WARRIORS, Manly
Raiders 16 points, need 6 wins from 10 games - in danger
STORM, DRAGONS, Roosters, Titans, BRONCOS, Panthers, Knights, SOUTHS, COWBOYS, Bulldogs
Knights 16 points, need 6 wins from 10 games - in danger
Dragons, PANTHERS, SHARKS, Souths, Eels, TITANS, RAIDERS, Cowboys, Storm, BRONCOS
Warriors 16 points, need 6 wins from 9 games – in danger
Cowboys, BULLDOGS, Storm, SOUTHS, Broncos, Sharks, DRAGONS, Panthers, EELS
Rabbitohs 12 points, need 8 wins from 10 games - Will not to qualify
Bulldogs, Eels, Tigers, KNIGHTS, Warriors, SHARKS, Manly, Raiders, ROOSTERS, STORM
Bulldogs 12 points, need 8 wins from 9 games - Will not to qualify
SOUTHS, BRONCOS, Dragons, Tigers, COWBOYS, PANTHERS, Eels, Broncos, RAIDERS
Cowboys 10 points, need 9 wins from 9 games - start planning end of season trip
WARRIORS, Broncos, EELS, Roosters, Bulldogs, Titans, KNIGHTS, Raiders, SHARKS.
In my illinformed, uneducated opinion, this is something what we will see at the end of the last round.

TOP 4 in no order
Roosters
Manly
Sharks
Storm
TEAMS 5-7 in no order
Dragons
Titans
Broncos
Realistically fighting for spot 8. (My choice if any of these 3 to qualify - Eels)
Eels – Tigers – Panthers
Slight chance (I dont think any of these 4 can make it, However I cant split any of these sides when choosing a roughy to qualify)
Panthers – Raiders – Knights – Warriors
The rest
Rabbitohs – Bulldogs - Cowboys
 
Last edited:

Raider_69

Post Whore
Messages
61,174
Canberra need 6 wins to make it
17 Storm (A) - Lose
18 Dragons (A) - Lose
19 Roosters (H) - 50/50
20 Titans (H) - WIN (titans are sh*te away from home)
21 Broncos (A) - Lose
22 Panthers (H) - WIN (at home against a side we've had the number of recently)
23 Knights (H) - WIN (tough game and could reaslistically decide one teams fate, at home we should win imo)
24 Rabbitohs (A) - WIN (Rabbits will be out of the running by then, we have a good record at telstra, i think we can do them)
25 Cowboys (A) - WIN (the cowboys are rubbish this year)
26 Bulldogs (H) - WIN (At home, we should win this one too)
 

Bicey_18

Bench
Messages
3,021
Realistically I think the only ones that cant make it from here are Bulldogs, cowboys and Souths.. the others are all still in contention.
 

_Johnsy

Referee
Messages
28,106
FMD

I did not take p/d into account this many weeks out. There are a few teams who already have been given the 2 points from this weeks bye.

I did not think it was that hard to understand.
 

mxlegend99

Referee
Messages
23,275
Panthers aren't in danger. We're outright f*cked. Our easiest run of the season was the last 5 games... we got a win and a draw in that period.

I say we will struggle to win 3 of our remaining games, letalone 5 or 6 of them.
 

adamkungl

Immortal
Messages
42,955
imo...the top 7 looks about locked up, though we all know everything can change betwween now and september. For 8th spot:
Eels - inconsistent and lucky to be where they are. Showing some signs of form in the last few weeks but were sh*t against Melbourne U20s. Not the hardest draw, good chance.
Tigers - A constant disappointment, should be winning games with Head and Benji in the halves but aren't. Unlikely.
Panthers - Can play good football but a hard draw will probably see them lack enough wins.
Raiders - Inconsistent, especially away from home, but there are enough winnable games in their draw to sneak in.
Knights - Imo a better side than their position on the table indicates. Inconsistent though, and a tricky draw.
Warriors - Another inconsistent side. Should win most of their home games, but probably won't get enough to get in.

My tip - Eels, with Raiders a dark horse.
 

mxlegend99

Referee
Messages
23,275
Our run home:
Eels - Away 40/60
Knights - Home 40/60
Titans - Away 30/70
Tigers - Home 55/45
Manly - Away 40/60
Raiders - Away 40/60
Bulldogs - Home 60/40
Storm - Home 1/99
Warriors - Away 50/50
Manly - Home 40/60

We travel better during Away games, but al our away games are against sides which are really good at home. Tigers, Bulldogs and Warriors are teams we seem to manage to beat even when we suck. Best case scenario is we win those 3 games and scrape in 2 others.
 

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