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Hmmm... Three big matches this weekend could go a long way toward sorting out the finals jigsaw puzzle.
FRIDAY JULY 11 ACST
Adelaide vs Essendon
AAMI Stadium 7:40 PM ACST
The first of the major games for the weekend pits a revived Bombers outfit against an Adelaide side desperate to maintain its spot in the four. Essendon has looked surprisingly good over the last fortnight, but hasn't travelled well over the past couple of years and should find this game beyond them. A loss here would have serious consequences for the home side, which has possibly the toughest run home of any side in the competition. Even when Essendon has been an elite side it has found the going tough in the City of Churches and given the likelihood of being belted in the middle, its difficult to see the red & blacks winning enough quality ball to threaten the Crows defence... Crows by 36 pts
SATURDAY JULY 12 AEST
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Melbourne Cricket Ground 2:10 PM AEST
The second of the big three... Freo was great in dispensing of the Premiers at home last weekend, but will find the going even tougher here. Collingwood has endured an emotional week with club great, Bob Rose, passing away (a big loss to the footballing world). In light of this, it is almost impossible to see them losing here. Still, if Rocca plays one of his patented flat games then Freo will be in with a big show. Freo is the more talented side, but Collingwood is still harder at it and should be too steady in Melbourne... Magpies by 24 pts
Richmond vs Geelong
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
Form says Geelong here, with the Cats turning in a huge performance to upset the flag favourites at home last weekend. The Cats have a solid vein of young talent at the club, but it is still so raw that the club will struggle to beat any oposition if its workrate is anything less than 110%. In many ways they are like the poor man's Collingwood, but lacking the Magpies steadiness and experience in key areas. Richmond has been its usual dismal self this season and its little wonder that membership levels remain so subpar at the club when the team is synonymous with insipid performances. That being said, I have a sneaking feeling that the Tigers will break their long slump here and keep the club's slim finals hopes alive. Geelong has the greater heart and potential, but Richmond should have enough wise heads to get over the line with its season the line... Tigers by 18 pts
Sydney vs St Kilda
Sydney Cricket Ground 7:10 PM AEST
How bad were the Saints last weekend? The guts is quickly falling out of their season and Cornflakes Thomas is again under the pump with the side absolutely no chance of making the finals, despite promising much earlier in the year. They'll fancy their chances here, as every side should against Sydney, although the Swans have developed a sense of belief that defies the limited talent on show and that'll be enough to get them home here. The red & whites have a Collingwoodesque resolve that when coupled with a neat overall pace level is winning them games they have no right to be winning. I suspect they'll get smacked-up big time in the Finals, but at least they'll be there... Swans by 26 pts
West Coast vs Carlton
Subiaco 5:40 PM AWST
YAAAWN! Games don't come any less exciting than this one with the Eagles set to demolish the battling Blues at Fortress Subi. I suspect the Eagles are facing the same sad finals fate as Sydney, as they look well equipped to negotiate a home & away campaign okay (particularly with such a massive home ground advantage), but the side structure hardly inspires. The Eagles midfield is solid, but not sensational and the forward line lacks depth and potency. It matters little here, as the blue & gold's could play cardboard cutouts across half back and still restrict Carlton to a losing score. The summer nonsense talk of Carlton still having enough top-end talent to make the eight has been exposed as fantasy stuff and the club has long years of rebuilding ahead of it. On most occasions the Blues have been able to grind it out for three quarters of a game, but I sense a hiding of epic proportions could be on the cards... Eagles by 80 pts
SUNDAY JULY 13 AEST
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn
Gabba 1:10 PM AEST
The last of the big three games for the weekend. Brisbane has destroyed Hawthorn and everything it ever loved on the last two Hawk visits to the northern capital, but I sense a change of fortune is on the wind. The Brisbane players are looking akin to the fattened Roman Senators before the Barbarians tore their playhouse down, and will also be the latest side to face the dreaded Subi curse. Sure the Lions look strong on paper, but does the side still have what it takes to roll talented and hungry opposition? The Hawks are rapidly regaining form and confidence to the point of resembling the side that was rudely robbed of a GF berth in 2001. The team is fitter than the Lions, faster than the Lions and will win the air battle comfortably. Its the little matters of skill and strength that complicate the equation here, but the Hawks have been the best tackling side all season and have been in the top three of every major category over the past month. Hawk fans haven't dared bandy around the F word for fear of jinxing the team, but I suspect they'll be letting loose with it come 4pm Sunday arvo... Hawks by 19 pts
Kangaroos vs Melbourne
Melbourne Cricket Ground 2:10 PM AEST
I don't mind the Roos and I admire their spirit, but I've been deathriding the club all year (they're just not a particularly good side) and it was only a matter of time before they proved me correct. They're gone the blue & whites, as brave as they have been, because in the end talent will win out every time and the club just doesn't have enough of it. The Pie massacre will have sorely dented confidence at the club and the loss of key man Harvey to suspension will screw with the players' heads even further. Melbourne are hardly a super side and was very fortunate to get over a painfully weak Carlton outfit last week. They'll have too much on the day for the Roos though and I suspect Neitz could just about win it off his own boot if he comes to play... Demons by 20 pts
Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
Hmmm, this game hardly whets the appetite and could be memorable only for the sight of Port wearing the black & white "prison bar" strip in the AFL for a very rare time. Port will be champing at the bit to get back on the paddock after getting upset big time by the lowly Cats last week and will belt the Dogs all over the Park. The Bulldogs were embarrasing last week and should have been beaten by a triple figure margin. In fairness to the Hounds, they lack the tall timber and strong bodies to be seriously competitive in the competition, but even allowing for that their lack of accountability was unforgivable against the Hawks. Even more worrying for the Dogs was the fact that their key handful of players got heaps of the ball and yet the side never looked threatening. The club will win the wooden spoon this season, but with talk rife of several key players leaving and debts building-up the future looks gloomy for the battlers from the western suburbs. They'll be hard pressed winning another game all year and will be looking to keep the margin respectable here... Power by 62 pts
CyberKev
FRIDAY JULY 11 ACST
Adelaide vs Essendon
AAMI Stadium 7:40 PM ACST
The first of the major games for the weekend pits a revived Bombers outfit against an Adelaide side desperate to maintain its spot in the four. Essendon has looked surprisingly good over the last fortnight, but hasn't travelled well over the past couple of years and should find this game beyond them. A loss here would have serious consequences for the home side, which has possibly the toughest run home of any side in the competition. Even when Essendon has been an elite side it has found the going tough in the City of Churches and given the likelihood of being belted in the middle, its difficult to see the red & blacks winning enough quality ball to threaten the Crows defence... Crows by 36 pts
SATURDAY JULY 12 AEST
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Melbourne Cricket Ground 2:10 PM AEST
The second of the big three... Freo was great in dispensing of the Premiers at home last weekend, but will find the going even tougher here. Collingwood has endured an emotional week with club great, Bob Rose, passing away (a big loss to the footballing world). In light of this, it is almost impossible to see them losing here. Still, if Rocca plays one of his patented flat games then Freo will be in with a big show. Freo is the more talented side, but Collingwood is still harder at it and should be too steady in Melbourne... Magpies by 24 pts
Richmond vs Geelong
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
Form says Geelong here, with the Cats turning in a huge performance to upset the flag favourites at home last weekend. The Cats have a solid vein of young talent at the club, but it is still so raw that the club will struggle to beat any oposition if its workrate is anything less than 110%. In many ways they are like the poor man's Collingwood, but lacking the Magpies steadiness and experience in key areas. Richmond has been its usual dismal self this season and its little wonder that membership levels remain so subpar at the club when the team is synonymous with insipid performances. That being said, I have a sneaking feeling that the Tigers will break their long slump here and keep the club's slim finals hopes alive. Geelong has the greater heart and potential, but Richmond should have enough wise heads to get over the line with its season the line... Tigers by 18 pts
Sydney vs St Kilda
Sydney Cricket Ground 7:10 PM AEST
How bad were the Saints last weekend? The guts is quickly falling out of their season and Cornflakes Thomas is again under the pump with the side absolutely no chance of making the finals, despite promising much earlier in the year. They'll fancy their chances here, as every side should against Sydney, although the Swans have developed a sense of belief that defies the limited talent on show and that'll be enough to get them home here. The red & whites have a Collingwoodesque resolve that when coupled with a neat overall pace level is winning them games they have no right to be winning. I suspect they'll get smacked-up big time in the Finals, but at least they'll be there... Swans by 26 pts
West Coast vs Carlton
Subiaco 5:40 PM AWST
YAAAWN! Games don't come any less exciting than this one with the Eagles set to demolish the battling Blues at Fortress Subi. I suspect the Eagles are facing the same sad finals fate as Sydney, as they look well equipped to negotiate a home & away campaign okay (particularly with such a massive home ground advantage), but the side structure hardly inspires. The Eagles midfield is solid, but not sensational and the forward line lacks depth and potency. It matters little here, as the blue & gold's could play cardboard cutouts across half back and still restrict Carlton to a losing score. The summer nonsense talk of Carlton still having enough top-end talent to make the eight has been exposed as fantasy stuff and the club has long years of rebuilding ahead of it. On most occasions the Blues have been able to grind it out for three quarters of a game, but I sense a hiding of epic proportions could be on the cards... Eagles by 80 pts
SUNDAY JULY 13 AEST
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn
Gabba 1:10 PM AEST
The last of the big three games for the weekend. Brisbane has destroyed Hawthorn and everything it ever loved on the last two Hawk visits to the northern capital, but I sense a change of fortune is on the wind. The Brisbane players are looking akin to the fattened Roman Senators before the Barbarians tore their playhouse down, and will also be the latest side to face the dreaded Subi curse. Sure the Lions look strong on paper, but does the side still have what it takes to roll talented and hungry opposition? The Hawks are rapidly regaining form and confidence to the point of resembling the side that was rudely robbed of a GF berth in 2001. The team is fitter than the Lions, faster than the Lions and will win the air battle comfortably. Its the little matters of skill and strength that complicate the equation here, but the Hawks have been the best tackling side all season and have been in the top three of every major category over the past month. Hawk fans haven't dared bandy around the F word for fear of jinxing the team, but I suspect they'll be letting loose with it come 4pm Sunday arvo... Hawks by 19 pts
Kangaroos vs Melbourne
Melbourne Cricket Ground 2:10 PM AEST
I don't mind the Roos and I admire their spirit, but I've been deathriding the club all year (they're just not a particularly good side) and it was only a matter of time before they proved me correct. They're gone the blue & whites, as brave as they have been, because in the end talent will win out every time and the club just doesn't have enough of it. The Pie massacre will have sorely dented confidence at the club and the loss of key man Harvey to suspension will screw with the players' heads even further. Melbourne are hardly a super side and was very fortunate to get over a painfully weak Carlton outfit last week. They'll have too much on the day for the Roos though and I suspect Neitz could just about win it off his own boot if he comes to play... Demons by 20 pts
Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST
Hmmm, this game hardly whets the appetite and could be memorable only for the sight of Port wearing the black & white "prison bar" strip in the AFL for a very rare time. Port will be champing at the bit to get back on the paddock after getting upset big time by the lowly Cats last week and will belt the Dogs all over the Park. The Bulldogs were embarrasing last week and should have been beaten by a triple figure margin. In fairness to the Hounds, they lack the tall timber and strong bodies to be seriously competitive in the competition, but even allowing for that their lack of accountability was unforgivable against the Hawks. Even more worrying for the Dogs was the fact that their key handful of players got heaps of the ball and yet the side never looked threatening. The club will win the wooden spoon this season, but with talk rife of several key players leaving and debts building-up the future looks gloomy for the battlers from the western suburbs. They'll be hard pressed winning another game all year and will be looking to keep the margin respectable here... Power by 62 pts
CyberKev
