Geelong are going well, but have had a fab injury run and have been going at 100%.
Will finish top two with 1-2 losses (West Coast and Collingwood in round 24, assuming the Pies aren't just easing through that round), but unlike their key rivals, do not have any lift in them for the finals. May not need it, if they stay healthy and their opponents lose key personnel. Better hope that Ottens stays fit for the campaign though, as they can't afford to be without him in cauldron games.
Collingwood remains the best side in the competition, despite affording itself the luxury of some experimentation. Unlike Geelong, the Magpies have another gear to go up come finals time. Worst case scenario would appear to be a two loss H&A season, should they go down to Geelong again in round 24. Will hope that Jolly can come up when it matters and wouldn't want to take too many personnel hits down back, but look good things for back-to-back.
Carlton have been better than I was expecting. Have come on well since the loss to Collingwood and were very stiff against Geelong. Unlike the Cats, the Blues still have upside, but whether they have enough in them this year will have to wait until finals time to be decided. I'm not sure they do, but a good finals hit out would have them well positioned for 2012.
Hawthorn are off the pace of the others, but are also undergoing the most marked change. Mass infusion of younger types may begin to tell as the season winds down and have already exceeded their quota of key personnel hits. Will be hoping to squeeze into fourth for a finals campaign, which will be beyond their current capabilities, but much like Carlton, will augur well for 2012.
West Coast is the only side I can see breaking into the top four. I expect they'll lose to Carlton this weekend, which will see them 2 games and percentage out of fourth, but they should finish out the year well. Will be a big challenger in 2012, but probably a year too soon at the moment.
