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What are our chances?

Pro Dragons

Juniors
Messages
395
I for one are very excited about the up coming season. With the inclusion of James Graham and Ben Hunt you would think we have an excellent chance of making the Finals. But when I looked at the TAB betting there are 9 teams with shorter odds to make the top 8. I thought surely we are a much better chance than that or am I being over optimistic about our chances in 2018?
 

Alec's-saints

Juniors
Messages
1,049
top 4 side without a doubt. i think we will finish 5th or 6th with supercoach at the helm. if we don't make the 8 with one of the best foward packs in the competition and easily top 3 halves combination something is seriously wrong. 38 sleeps until our beloved saints are playing! guna be a big year i can feel it. :dragon::dragon:
 

grouch

First Grade
Messages
8,393
I really like the squad, but I understand those ratings. James Graham isn't getting any younger, and had surgery on a neck injury last year, and neck injuries can be troublesome. They can send players into retirement. As for Ben Hunt, he just spent a year playing hooker.

And of course, we have an utterly horrendous coach.

Sack McGregor
 

possm

Coach
Messages
15,591
We definitely have a top 4 squad however, it will depend on which 17 and which game plan Mary runs with. For season 2018, the best chance we have is for Mary to do his usual and select the likes of Aitken, Macdonald and Nightingale in our top 17. If he goes for safety and does select the above players over the first few rounds, we are likely to lose those games and maybe Mary lose his job.

From that point on it will depend who replaces Mary; a top grade coach or another one of the old boys. If the Board finally bites the bullet and hires a top coach, we have every chance in the world of landing in the top 4.
 

muzby

Village Idiot
Staff member
Messages
45,712
I for one are very excited about the up coming season. With the inclusion of James Graham and Ben Hunt you would think we have an excellent chance of making the Finals. But when I looked at the TAB betting there are 9 teams with shorter odds to make the top 8. I thought surely we are a much better chance than that or am I being over optimistic about our chances in 2018?

Simple answer:

Our chance of making the 8 is 1:2.

Our chance of winning the comp (at this stage) is 1:16.. if we make the 8 that halves to 1:8.

The probability of how we go is a different kettle of fish all together..
 

dragonssamy61

First Grade
Messages
5,549
I really hope that Saints are tipped to finish top 8 as that is what the board looks at judging by the past. They had Saints at last second last last year and all Mary had to do was finish above that to get an upgrade. No excuse if they set top 8 as the bar. Then they can bring a real coach in like Maguire. He would be ideal.

Slippery
Agree but I would say anything less than top 6 is a failure.
And deep into the finals.

We have the players.
I rate our forward in the top 4 packs
Our halves in the top 3 combos
Our backs in 6th
Our game plans bottom 3.
I hope Mary proves me wrong.
But if he doesn't then see you later
 

Gareth67

First Grade
Messages
8,411
As much as I want the Dragons to be a top - 4 side , I really can't see them getting ahead of the usual candidates . Cowboys , Roosters , Storm and Brisbane and one or two other teams that could make up the 4 .

As others have said we will have a good chance of forcing our way into the final 8 , but that's in a perfect world . Unfortunately we must take into account the 5 x 5 day turn around matches we have , the traveling involved , the refs calls that don't go our way ( which did cost us a couple of wins in 2017 ) and any number of incidentals .

Of course our biggest problem will be whether or not the coach can actually get his act together this season ? Then we must also take into account that Ben Hunt and Gareth Widdop will need time to form a slick working combination .

I am not attempting to be negative , but merely pointing out some of the difficulties that St.George Illawarra will most certainly face this year . On the plus side I believe that our recruitment of players in key positions will make life easier for the Dragons this year . In particular Hunt with his ' taking the line on ' will add another dimension to the attack and also with Grahams ' take no prisoners ' approach , will get the forward pack moving in the right direction .

Biggest problems, the backs being able to become more adept in both attack and defence. The players in general need to be aware that by trailing Hunt around the park , there may be try scoring opportunities available . ( hopefully this will be pointed out to them before the first game ) .
The bench rotation being used as it should and finally Mary having the confidence to use the outstanding younger players that are there , just waiting for their chance to shine .

Should the correct formula be found then we will be there come semi final time and once there anything can happen. Finally giving all of us long suffering fans will really have something to cheer about .
 
Last edited:
Messages
3,607
OT, love your maths.

My feeling is we have the cattle for a top 6 finish

Our coach ranks 16th

Which means the best we can finish is 11th if you give cattle and Mary equal weighting.

Add X factor of on field coaching and experience of Graham + Hunt means my head sees us at 9th

My heart however says top 6 easyyyyyyy !!!!!!

Fire up you mighty Saintsssssssssssssssssss !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Belta

Juniors
Messages
1,126
The equation could be that: luck is on our side, the ball bounces our way, we win more than half of our close games and the ref calls are remotely close to being even than we are certain to play finals.

However we could also: Falll 2 metres short of the try line, get raped by the refs, use three players off the bench, score no try's off kicks, leak more try's than a dripping tap down Aitken and Macdonalds side and subsequently miss the 8.
 

since77

Juniors
Messages
1,827
Mixed feelings about the coming season.
Best squad since 2011. Best pair of halves since Mundine & Barrett. Strong forward pack
Outside backs weak though.
Bennett, Bellamy, Robinson could maybe come up with a game plan to squeak into the top 4.
Unfortunately we have a coach who can't use a bench properly or show any ability to coach a side to play smart football.
I think 7th or 8th is most likely and if we're lucky a 2 week run in the finals before the well coached teams leave us behind.
 

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