Spring 2017

[Tommy Smith]

Aloisia is about $1.70 and thats very short odds for a horse not named Winx or Frankel!

You confident she's still worth the price?

 

[lockyno1]

You mean - there is ONLY one locky

I'll take that as a compliment lol

 

[lockyno1]

Aloisia is about $1.70 and thats very short odds for a horse not named Winx or Frankel!

You confident she's still worth the price?

She's winning and winning it easily probably the easiest bet for a while. I'm just livid I'm not getting the $10 I got a few starts back.

Anything more than $1.50 is value. Probably have some first 4's standing it out

 

[Sphagnum]

Taking short odds about horses untried at a staying trip is not the best idea.

She might bolt in but you're getting a very small return for taking the risk.

Just my .02c

 

[to_ddeath]

Aloisia is a freak.
Will leave them for dead.
Congrats Locky...shoulda stuck my neck out & stuck a bit on P'drena each way. Just not me day.
Like Another Coldie in the 4th on Thursday too..one for the lunch break.

 

[Lemon Squash]

Would you merkins shut up about Aloisia!

I got it at 15s at the start of the prep which is probably one of the better long range bets I’ve done and I’m not going to count my cash until it wins... I don’t need you merkins saying it’s a good thing and then it coming out and getting rolled..

Poor bastard already has to carry me on it’s shoulders, doesn’t need any extra weight

 

[lockyno1]

Aloisia is a freak.
Will leave them for dead.
Congrats Locky...shoulda stuck my neck out & stuck a bit on P'drena each way. Just not me day.
Like Another Coldie in the 4th on Thursday too..one for the lunch break.

Yeah I like that horse too on Thursday just worry about how far it will get back that's all.

 

[lockyno1]

Would you merkins shut up about Aloisia!

I got it at 15s at the start of the prep which is probably one of the better long range bets I’ve done and I’m not going to count my cash until it wins... I don’t need you merkins saying it’s a good thing and then it coming out and getting rolled

Love it Lemon lol

 

[Sphagnum]

Lemon on the other hand got a great price to find out

 

[hineyrulz]

Aloisia is about $1.70 and thats very short odds for a horse not named Winx or Frankel!

You confident she's still worth the price?

Yes brah.

 

[hineyrulz]

Would you merkins shut up about Aloisia!

I got it at 15s at the start of the prep which is probably one of the better long range bets I’ve done and I’m not going to count my cash until it wins... I don’t need you merkins saying it’s a good thing and then it coming out and getting rolled..

Poor bastard already has to carry me on it’s shoulders, doesn’t need any extra weight

It’s a good thing.

Sorry brah your long range bet now has aids.

 

[Tommy Smith]

The Cup F4 was from barriers 4, 3, 2, 5.

And barrier 1 was that 3-legged horse Bondi Beach.

And here I am backing the horses in barriers 23 and 24!

"Much to learn you have, my young Padawan".

Hindsight is a real killer in the punting game.

 

[lockyno1]

If Dettori is on another Melbourne Cup horse the owners should be checked! Dead set plonker of epic proportions.

 

[to_ddeath]

If Dettori is on another Melbourne Cup horse the owners should be checked! Dead set plonker of epic proportions.

No but the horse was 'flat' apparently...even though it was wide the whole time.
Clearly Williams was more confident of Rekindling at the weights. Picking Dettori was basically trolling mugs like me all over the friggin joint.

 

[Lemon Squash]

The Cup F4 was from barriers 4, 3, 2, 5.

And barrier 1 was that 3-legged horse Bondi Beach.

And here I am backing the horses in barriers 23 and 24!

"Much to learn you have, my young Padawan".

Hindsight is a real killer in the punting game.

Yeh dude barriers play a massive part in the results of races and that’s over any distance from 1000m sprints right up to staying races like the Cup.

Drawing a barrier is half the battle, it usually ensures your horse doesn’t have to use petrol early, can take cover and a trail and then if it is good enough should be able to be in the finish.

It’s not to say horses who draw wide barriers can’t win races but it just makes it so much more difficult.

Today appeared to be even more biased to runners drawn on the inside than usual though. Watching the replay again tonight and I think Nakeeta, Thomas Hobson and Tiberian were all massive runs from shit barriers.. swap their barriers with Rekindling, Johannes and Max and you get a much different result.

Then there’s times where drawing an inside gate isn’t ideal at all... on a tight track like Moonee Valley if I like a ‘get back’ horse I prefer it to draw wide because if it gets a run on the rails there’s often no room to get out, while horses on the outside have the opportunity to run on.

You do have much to learn Young Skywalker

 

[Lemon Squash]

He is always riding well when he comes over here, doesn’t mean he doesn’t turn into an arseclown as soon as he steps onto Flemington.

Hiney nails it again with his summary of Frankie Derptori

 

[Sphagnum]

Regal monarch ended up being euthanized at werribee after its fall.

Another happy trip to Australia for the magic man...

 

[Sphagnum]

Im pretty sure everyone was saying yankee rose just had to turn up last year and the oaks was hers.

Reminds me a bit of whobegotyou as well in the derby many years ago.

We all know how that ended.

 

[Tommy Smith]

Yeh dude barriers play a massive part in the results of races and that’s over any distance from 1000m sprints right up to staying races like the Cup.

Drawing a barrier is half the battle, it usually ensures your horse doesn’t have to use petrol early, can take cover and a trail and then if it is good enough should be able to be in the finish.

It’s not to say horses who draw wide barriers can’t win races but it just makes it so much more difficult.

Today appeared to be even more biased to runners drawn on the inside than usual though. Watching the replay again tonight and I think Nakeeta, Thomas Hobson and Tiberian were all massive runs from shit barriers.. swap their barriers with Rekindling, Johannes and Max and you get a much different result.

Then there’s times where drawing an inside gate isn’t ideal at all... on a tight track like Moonee Valley if I like a ‘get back’ horse I prefer it to draw wide because if it gets a run on the rails there’s often no room to get out, while horses on the outside have the opportunity to run on.

You do have much to learn Young Skywalker

Thanks for the insights Master Yoda.

I understand the general importance of barriers but I think it was more in reference to the apparent 'inside barrier bias' that was apparent today. Which made the F4 coming from those barriers no coincidence.

And you're right, I suspect that if Tiberian and Red Cardinal swapped barriers with JV and Rekindling then they'd probably have gone close to swapping finishing positions too.

I backed Heartbreak City from barrier 23 last year who came a close 2nd so I think I just got carried away with a good horses ability to overcome a wide draw.

I'll certainly be awake to track bias' in future and factor it well into any bets; particularly the tris and F4s.

 

[hineyrulz]

Regal monarch ended up being euthanized at werribee after its fall.

Another happy trip to Australia for the magic man...

Merkins killing it.