Knights v Cowboys Preview
NRL.com
EnergyAustralia Stadium
Saturday 7.30pm
http://nrl.com/News/Latest/tabid/10244/default.aspx?id=52506
NEWCASTLE coach Brian Smith might have said ‘it’s over’ after the Knights lost to Canberra last weekend – but he wasn’t referring to his sides play-off hopes… yet.
Those hopes go on the line in Newcastle this Saturday night as the 10th-placed Knights face off against the slightly improving, last-placed Cowboys.
It wouldn’t be completely over if the Knights go down but they would be firmly in the ‘mathematical’ category of finals contenders – and when you fall into that group you might as well put the deposit down on the end-of-season trip.
A big win could have them move as high as seventh if results went their way; however a loss could potentially see them fall to 13th.
They welcome Adam MacDougall back at centre from his one-game suspension which sees Cooper Vuna out of the side while Wes Naiqama also returns on the wing in place of Akuila Uate.
Halfback Marvin Karawana has been given the punt in favour of Scott Dureau while prop Ben Cross has been named to start, with Jesse Royal moving to the bench. Lock Chris Houston is being rested with Matt Hilder taking his place and Chris Bailey and Mark Taufua are the new faces on a five-man bench.
For the Cowboys, the last three weeks is purely about getting out of the wooden spoon slot.
A superior for-and-against compared to the Bulldogs’ means it’s likely just one win from their remaining three games would be enough to offload the dreaded wooden utensil and with Canberra and Cronulla to come after the Knights, they realise this is the lowest-ranked team they’ll play before it’s all over.
They have retained the side that lost to the Titans last weekend; however Matthew Scott has been named as an 18th man and he hopes to make a return from a long-term injury.
Watch out Knights: Cowboys’ winger John Williams is having a fair season and poses as a real threat out wide.
Having scored 10 tries this year in a struggling team Williams has proven his attacking prowess.
He also averages 99 metres gained a match, has five line breaks and has busted 35 tackles.
He’ll be looking for plenty of ball, especially if he lines up against Wes Naiqama, who is likely to be tentative in his return from injury.
Watch out Cowboys: The Knights know how to get into the clear, having posted 104 line breaks so far this season, which ranks them third in the NRL in the statistic.
That is 27 more line breaks then the Cowboys have managed (their 77 ranks them 15th) with the discrepancy likely to be a deciding factor if the visitors don’t muscle up.
Plenty of the Knights’ breaks originate from offloads so the Cowboys need to ensure they wrap up the ball in defence.
Where it will be won: Field position.
The Cowboys can’t seem to score points unless they are close to their opponents’ line which is unfortunate, especially against the Knights.
Newcastle average 1363 metres gained on the ground a game, which ranks them fourth in the NRL, while the Cowboys only manage 1227 metres which has them ranked 15th.
Making things worse is the Knights have the second-best kick accuracy in the competition; they find space 64.7 per cent of the time, while the Cowboys do so on just 55.2 per cent of occasions.
If the home side can assert this sort of dominance on the ground they’re likely to restrict the Cowboys to a low score and then it’s just a matter of scoring points when the chances come.
The History: Played 19; Knights 12, Cowboys 7.
The Cowboys have won five of the past eight against Newcastle although the Knights won 30-18 earlier this season at Dairy Farmer Stadium.
At EnergyAustralia Stadium the Knights hold a 7-3 advantage but they haven’t beaten the Cowboys at home since 2005.
If trends take your eye the teams have traded wins and losses over the last six games and if this continues the Cowboys are due a win.
Conclusion: Newcastle really should win this game.
It’s on their dirt patch and they have a possible finals berth on the line so there are no excuses for a poor performance.
The Cowboys are motivated not to come last but that only lasts so long when the going gets tough at this time of year.
But it’s been a while since the Knights had success against the Cowboys in Newcastle and for all those numerology fans the trend of win loss win loss has been right since 2005.
Match officials: Referee – Sean Hampstead; Sideline Officials – Chris James & Russell Turner; Video ref – Phil Cooley.
Televised: Fox Sports 2 – Delayed 9.30pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
Sean Hampstead
