Knights v Broncos Preview
Big League
http://nrl.com/News/Latest/tabid/10244/default.aspx?id=50482
ON paper you could dismiss this game as an uneven David v Goliath clash but the Knights are showing signs of gelling into a genuine finals contender, their pack full of honest toilers and their backline taking the opportunities that are being presented their way.
But a victory here would more likely be a Herculean effort, as theyll have to do it without star pivot Jarrod Mullen, who injured his leg against the Warriors last week.
Chris Bailey takes the hot seat outside Scott Dureau but the one blessing is he wont have to line up opposite Darren Lockyer, who is missing with soreness to his reconstructed knee. (Lockyers replacement is the capable David Stagg.)
The Knights will be anxious to arrest their two-game losing streak (Eels by a point and Warriors) that followed their back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Sea Eagles (the latter by a point).
The Broncos have shot out of the gates with a hat-trick of wins (Panthers, Roosters, Cowboys) before being unsaddled by the Storm in Melbourne last week. They did have excuses though they were missing major contributor Justin Hodges, who returns to the centres here.
The ominous sign for the Knights is that in two of the Broncos three previous wins over the Novocastrians, they managed to put on more than 50 points.
Watch out Knights: Forget Mark Gasnier, Justin Hodges is currently the worlds best centre. Hes proving it with consistent performances each week; his average 171 metres a game from three outings in 2008 ranks him second in the NRL. And while a host of fullbacks and other outside backs are averaging well over 100 metres in territory a game, theyre doing it largely on the back of kick-returns.
Not Hodges: he goes looking for action. He doesnt even figure in the top 20 kick-returners. Instead, he makes the ground out of dummy-half, where hes run 31 times (second in the NRL after missing 25 per cent of play!) Brian Smith will have spent hours this week drumming into his markers the desperate need to shut Hodges down before he takes more than three strides or theyll be back-pedalling all afternoon.
As Knights coach Brian Smith says in this weeks Big League: Everyone knows hes a handful and he still does it.
Watch out Broncos: Just as Hodges is the key for the Broncos, the Knights will rely heavily on fullback Kurt Gidley to give them excellent counter attack.
The difference is Gidley tends to make his territory (average 193 metres a game top in the NRL) from kick-returns. But hell also be trailing Danny Buderus close to the ruck and on the fringes, just waiting for a half-chance.
Where it will be won: By kicking away from Gidley. If the Broncos can limit the Newcastle fullback to even just 120 metres, theyll win this one. The key could be to keep switching the point of their attack, in an attempt to catch Gidley out of position, with wingers Cooper Vuna and James McManus then called on to clear the ball.
Both have limited territory this year (averaging 50 and 72 metres respectively) and could be easily flustered into errors.
The History: Played 30; Broncos 21, Knights 9. The Knights have a poor recent record winning just one of their past six games against the Broncos. The visitors well and truly hold bragging rights flogging the Knights 71-6 at their most recent match-up last year (although that was at Suncorp Stadium).
Also, the Knights cant hope for much of a home ground advantage, having lost three of the past four times theyve met there.
Conclusion: A couple of great sub-plots here in the lead-up to the representative season Danny Buderus has the chance to stamp his authority on the Blues hooking role ahead of the Wests Tigers Robbie Farah who has been named out of position at halfback in his game this week; Brisbanes Peter Wallace needs to maintain his good momentum to stake a claim for the Blues no.7 spot; with Anthony Minichiello sidelined indefinitely Kurt Gidley is already elevated to no.2 choice behind incumbent Brett Stewart a big game here against likely Maroons fullback Karmichael Hunt would hold him in good stead with selectors.
No doubt the home crowd will lift their team but if they do get the competition points, it wont be by any flash margin.
Match officials: Referee Shayne Hayne; Sideline Officials Chris James & Steve Carrall; Video ref Paul Simpkins.
Televised: Channel 9 Delayed 4pm; FoxSports 2 Delayed 6pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
