There is no spoon favourite. Betting companies do not run a market on the spoon ever since the NRL started deducting points from salary cap cheats. There is sometimes a market of "least wins" but even that is suspended due no doubt to the likely impending points deduction to Parramatta.
Anyway, the rank outsider both to win the comp and make the finals is Newcastle, next line of betting is Titans and then the Dragons. The Dragons started favourite in the game at Wollongong. They are a different proposition down there.
Losing heavily to Brisbane and North Queensland just means you aren't in the top 2. It doesn't mean you will run last.
The Roosters might give the Panthers a game here, but they've got an awful lot of inexperienced players in their side, especially the spine. Penrith have a nasty habit of losing games they should by rights win though. With two wins from 6 games despite having generally performed well, if they can't get it done here they might as well start looking at end-of-season-trip travel brochures.