Agree with your points. The problem would be while producing players at a loss, is the NRL happy to lose money? You would assume a private investor wanting a return for their money would pull the plug at some point like we have seen with the Gold Coast and Newcastle in their previous incarnations. Just depends how ambitious and what risk the NRL is willing to take on.I'd say it depends on what you consider failure to be.
If it increases playing numbers, but the club itself is losing cash, is that a failure?
I'd say no. If the club offers anything of remote substance to the sport, the commission is bound to accept that risk.
They did it for the Knights, Titans, etc etc
Although none of us know what each bid offered, it looks like the NRL is being very cautious given they have all been rejected (PNG excluded given us taxpayers are funding it) so unlikely the NRL will want to fund a loss-making club just to produce players. I am sure they have stated they want any new club to be viable from the beginning and not a drain on the competition.