Sea Eagles V Storm Preview
NRL.com
http://nrl.com/Scores/TelstraPremie...x?roundid=702&matchid=5308&defaulttab=Preview
Sea Eagles v Storm
ANZ Stadium
Sunday 5.15pm
HERE we go!
The last 80 minutes of the season (a little more if we are super lucky) where we find out just who is the best side of the year.
Will it be the reigning premiers Melbourne, in their third straight grand final, who take the trophy or will it be Manly Warringah, last year’s runners up, who extract revenge and send legend Steve Menzies off a winner in his final game for the club?
Both sides have plenty of motivation and emotion bubbling through their campaigns. Manly have the Menzies factor – the try-scoring forward makes history by equalling Terry Lamb for the most first grade games in history (349), but is due to play the remainder of his career for Bradford in the UK, meaning the desire to send the champion out with a fairytale finish is uppermost in the Sea Eagles’ minds.
They also have the foul taste of defeat still rank in their mouths.
Last year they weren’t just beaten by the Storm, they were hammered and humiliated – and revenge can be a powerful motivator.
They plan to go into this clash unchanged from their pummelling of Cronulla although Matt Orford (ankle), Steve Matai (shoulder) and Glenn Stewart (leg) may be hampered by their niggling injuries.
The Storm, meanwhile, have flourished under their “us against the world” siege mentality.
After losing captain Cam Smith to suspension and abusing the NRL for the result (which brought a $50,000 fine) they are without doubt the league’s new “bad boys” – ironic, given they’ve shifted the tag ‘the team everyone loves to hate’ away from Manly!
But if you take last week’s result as a guide, they love it. It’s been a long time since they were underdogs in a match and they will revel in it.
They too are farewelling some stars: Matt Geyer is retiring and is in legend status at the Storm; Michael Crocker is off to England, Jeremy Smith to the Dragons, Israel Folau to Brisbane and Antonio Kaufusi to North Queensland.
They welcome back Jeremy Smith from suspension, with Aiden Tolman and Brett Anderson looking like being the extra men on the bench.
Watch out Sea Eagles: Emotion can sometimes get in the way of football.
While the Storm have their own farewells, the Steve Menzies circus has he potential to overshadow Manly’s focus.
Of course the side is professional and have learned from last year but they have to be careful the occasion does not beat them.
There is such a thing as trying too hard in football, so coach Des Hasler needs to beat the game plan into his players over and over and over.
Watch out Storm: Manly are the most prolific team at scoring tries from turnovers and also from dummy-half, meaning the Melbourne boys concentrate at all times in defence or face the consequences.
NRL defences are usually strong enough to deny tries from dummy-half (in fact the Storm are the only team in the NRL to not allow one) but it only takes one lapse to change this.
Manly have the players who can exploit these chances so the Storm need to be ready.
As for turnovers, sometimes the initial response to an error can be a distracted one. Players are annoyed at the error and forget to kill the ball.
Melbourne can’t afford to forget.
Where it will be won: In the key match-ups. Fullback, five-eighth, halfback and hooker. Let’s go to the stats, shall we:
Fullback: Brett Stewart v Billy Slater
Slater is ahead of Stewart on all the major attacking stats except scoring tries.
The Storm custodian averages 134 metres a game compared to Stewart’s 123 metres.
He has more line breaks (22-16), line-break assists (14-12), tackle busts (127-91) and try assists (14-12) than his counterpart but Stewart has sniffed out eight more tries this year (22-14).
Defensively Stewart has made 71.6 per cent of tackles this year including 13 try savers.
Slater has also made 13 try savers – but has made 76.6 per cent of his tackles.
Five –Eighth: Jamie Lyon v Greg Inglis
Here we have two differing styles. Inglis is more dangerous as a ball runner; Lyon is more dangerous as a ball player.
Lyon averages just 58 metres running a game compared to Inglis’ 94 metres and has just seven line breaks to the reigning Clive Churchill Medal winner’s 15, 38 tackle busts to 90 and five tries to Inglis’ 17.
However he trumps the Storm star in kick metres (119-40), line-break assists (11-3), try assists (14-4) and offloads (24-17). Lyon also has fewer errors than Inglis (22-11) and makes a higher percentage of his tackles (88-83).
Click here for complete player stats!
Halfback: Matt Orford v Cooper Cronk
The money men.
These two captains hold their teams’ fortunes in their hands and there is a huge chance the Clive Churchill Medal winner will be one of these men.
Orford’s critical stats are as follows: 36 running metres a game, 350 kick metres a game, three line breaks, 17 line-break assists, three tries, 31 try assists, 49 tackle breaks, 19 offloads and 38 errors.
Cronk’s are: 39 running metres a game, 417 kick metres a game, five line breaks, 19 line-break assists, four tries, 37 try assists, 29 tackle breaks, 8 offloads and 25 errors. Defensively Cronk is the man: he has made 89.4 per cent of his tackles compared to Orford’s 76 per cent.
Click here for complete player stats!
Hooker: Matt Ballin v Russell Aitken
If Cam Smith was in Aitken’s place he’d be a knockout choice but that’s not the reality.
Ballin has experience over Aitken in this position and as such has an edge. But Aitken proved last weekend that he is more than competent.
Whoever can get their forwards rolling and provide crisp service to their halves will help their side to victory.
Click here for complete player stats!
The History: Played 13; Sea Eagles 5, Storm 8.
The Storm have won four of the past five between the two clubs, including both encounters this year – and of course last season’s grand final. Earlier this season the Storm won 26-4 in round 5 in Melbourne and 16-10 at Brookvale in round 22.
Conclusion: With Cam Smith sidelined the Storm are underdogs but counting them out would be a grave mistake.
This match is still a toss-of-the-coin job and should go down to the wire.
Matt Orford can, once and for all, bury his critics with a big game but one thing in the lead- up is eerily similar to last year – the quiet form of Greg Inglis.
Last year Inglis wasn’t playing great in the lead-up yet absolutely killed the Sea Eagles in the big one.
This year his finals form has been down too… will he explode again?
If you are looking for a Clive Churchill tip you could go for a favourite like the Storm’s Slater or Orford for the Sea Eagles, but if you want some smokies look at Michael Crocker – he always lifts in big games – or Glenn Stewart – his form this year has been red hot.
We won’t pick a winner here but it would be an extreme surprise to see a margin greater than eight points either way.
Match officials: Referee – Tony Archer; Sideline Officials – Steve Chiddy & Jeff Younis; Video ref – Bill Harrigan & Steve Clark.
Televised: Channel Nine – Live 5pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
