2015 Crowd Watch

[juro]

As per my posts in the equivalent thread last year (see http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/sh...postcount=2019), here is the comparison of this year's crowds to the equivalent games over the last 5 years. ie I am comparing the crowd for say Broncos vs Cowboys to the same game in years 2010 to 2014. Note that this is not a perfect comparison, because the game time, location, round, weather, form, etc may change from year to year. The aim of the chart is to give an indication of how crowds are tracking relative to other years.

Round 1 (142k) was 12k up on the average of the equivalent games from 2010-14 (130k). But this is to be expected, since the opening round has a bit more event status than normal rounds. This was actually the 2nd worst effort in the last 5 years, only above 2014 which was +6k.

Round 2 (114k) was 17k down on average (132k) and Round 3 (130k) was 21k down on average (151k). So in total, we are already down 26k in total. Last year we were only down 5k after 3 rounds.

There have been 8 individual games over the opening 3 rounds with crowds which were above the 2010-14 average.
- The highest positive was Panthers vs Bulldogs (+6k), getting 19k which was the highest crowd for this fixture since 2004.
- Eels vs Sea Eagles (+5k) was the biggest crowd for this fixture since 2007.

There have been 16 individual games with crowds below the average.
- The worst was Wests Tigers vs Dragons (-9k), which had 3 crowds of 20k+ in 2010-14. Monday night at Campbelltown can't hope to get that.
- Warriors vs Eels was -7k, mainly due to the 38k effort in 2011 skewing the average.
- Titans vs Knights was also -7k, almost halving its previous average.
- Broncos vs Cowboys was -4k and was the lowest crowd for the fixture since 2003.

Next week's par crowd total is 125k.

- Eels vs Rabbitohs 19k
- Wests Tigers vs Bulldogs 20k
- Knights vs Panthers 16k
- Sharks vs Titans 10k
- Dragons vs Sea Eagles 15k
- Warriors vs Broncos 18k
- Roosters vs Raiders 11k
- Cowboys vs Storm 16k

 

[Desert Qlder]

Thanks Juro, nice work man.

 

[killbill]

Sorry to get off topic again but just to your earlier discussion about US populations and how its counted you may find this interesting, or not.

I am in Houston, Texas this is from the Houston Chronicle (the main newspaper here)

County, Houston metro area top national list of population gains
Census Bureau reports county, region top U.S. in population gains

With a booming oil industry greasing the wheels of economic growth, Harris County and the Houston metropolitan area are leading the nation in population increases, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Thursday.

During the year ending July 1, Harris County gained 83,000 residents, while the Houston-Woodlands-Sugar Land area added 137,692.

Harris County, with about 4.3 million residents, remains the nation's third-largest county, and the Houston metro area, with 6.3 million residents, maintains its ranking as the fifth- largest, one place behind Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington.

Thursday's report comes just days after a Federal Reserve Bank study found that Texas has led the nation in creating jobs since 2000 and that more than half of the new positions garnered salaries in the top half of the pay scale.

The Census Bureau found that six of the top 10 fastest-growing metro areas are in oil-rich states. Three of those - Odessa, Midland and Austin-Round Rock - are in Texas.

Fort Bend County was listed as the nation's ninth-fastest growing county, with a 4.2 percent population increase.

State Demographer Lloyd Potter attributed Texas' steady growth to a robust economy.

"The fact is that Texas has outperformed the rest of the country in job growth," Potter declared, saying that stands in stark contrast to economically moribund areas such as the Midwest.

Another factor, he said, is the relative youth of the Lone Star State's population. About half of Texas' population growth, he said, is the result of natural increase. About one-fourth comes from domestic migration, and the remaining fourth is attributable to international migration.

In Harris County, births accounted for 142,820 new residents; international migration for 62,599; and domestic migration for 40,006.

---

I am unable to post the link unfortunately but that is the bulk of the article.

Thanks for all your information on Rugby League and its history.

 

[Canard]

What do people reckon the crowds will be for the next 3 MNF games?

All 3 feature the Cowboys, one at home starting at 6pm QLD time and two away against the Penrith and Souths.

This seems bizarre scheduling. To me you should try to maximise those Sydney games by playing them on a more fan friendly spot.

Its likely that the Cowboys will play in front of a crowd no bigger than 8000, three weeks in a row.

 

[Timmah]

I still think 11k will show for NQL v MEL on Monday. Surely the QLD spine being on the field all at once is a marketers dream, no?

 

[big hit!]

What do people reckon the crowds will be for the next 3 MNF games?

All 3 feature the Cowboys, one at home starting at 6pm QLD time and two away against the Penrith and Souths.

This seems bizarre scheduling. To me you should try to maximise those Sydney games by playing them on a more fan friendly spot.

Its likely that the Cowboys will play in front of a crowd no bigger than 8000, three weeks in a row.

Fox has picked those games after Ch 9 picked their two friday night matches, haven't they?

Don't tell me the broadcasters don't run the game.

Geez, Monday night Football is just seriously f**ked.

Find me any other major league in the world (not Oz based) who will schedule matches at times that the punters just won't want to go, and I'll give you my house.

The reason the NRL are struggling to grow crowds is because they (or more accurately the broadcasters) schedule too many time slots over a weekend which prevents would be regular attendees from having a 2 or 3 regular times every weekend to follow their team live.

Look at an NFL or EPL schedule and you'll notice that most games are scheduled on a sunday and saturday respectively at the same time.

 

[betcats]

What do people reckon the crowds will be for the next 3 MNF games?

All 3 feature the Cowboys, one at home starting at 6pm QLD time and two away against the Penrith and Souths.

This seems bizarre scheduling. To me you should try to maximise those Sydney games by playing them on a more fan friendly spot.

Its likely that the Cowboys will play in front of a crowd no bigger than 8000, three weeks in a row.

Im hopeful the Penrith game will get more than 8k but you being right would be no stretch.

 

[oldmancraigy]

A
- Eels vs Sea Eagles (+5k) was the biggest crowd for this fixture since 2007.

Hey juro, thanks for your graphs, and research, it is always a compelling read.

I just picked up on a minor point you made (as quoted above).
In fact the crowd isn't up 5k, it was the Eels home ground, and last season was 17,706. 18,718 puts it up 1,012 people (still a good number, but not a 5k increase!).

Unless you are suggesting a 5k increase on Eels first home crowd of the season? Which it wouldn't be anyway - in 2007 the Eels/Eagles crowd was 20k+, so my assumption is that you were referring to that one (yes, biggest crowd since then, but not up 5k ).

Eels can't currently break that 2007 crowd result against the Sea Eagles They need that stadium increase!

 

[pHyR3]

wasnt he comparing averages to this years crowds?

i just had a skim over it

 

[TheFrog]

Im hopeful the Penrith game will get more than 8k but you being right would be no stretch.

This is Easter Monday. The Easter Monday game was at Penrith last year too, against the Titans and we got 9,500. So long as it's not raining this should pull 13,000 or so I believe.

Nonetheless, I think this game would have been much better played in the afternoon, since its a Public Holiday.

 

[CC_Roosters]

Fox has picked those games after Ch 9 picked their two friday night matches, haven't they?

Don't tell me the broadcasters don't run the game.

Geez, Monday night Football is just seriously f**ked.

Find me any other major league in the world (not Oz based) who will schedule matches at times that the punters just won't want to go, and I'll give you my house.

The reason the NRL are struggling to grow crowds is because they (or more accurately the broadcasters) schedule too many time slots over a weekend which prevents would be regular attendees from having a 2 or 3 regular times every weekend to follow their team live.

Look at an NFL or EPL schedule and you'll notice that most games are scheduled on a sunday and saturday respectively at the same time.

Nail hit firmly on the head. Zero opportunity for building a culture of attendance and every game on tv does not help. if we could sacrifice some tv cash and have 3-4 games simultaneously on a saturday or sunday at 3pm it would help to create a fan culture. You could still show each live on viewers choice for the stubborm stay at home fans

 

[Canard]

I still think 11k will show for NQL v MEL on Monday. Surely the QLD spine being on the field all at once is a marketers dream, no?

Playing a game at 6pm on a Monday night probably isn't though.

I see the Cowboys have got a "Kids get in for free" promotion for this game. To me that's a sure sign that the crowd figures are going be very low.

 

[betcats]

Playing a game at 6pm on a Monday night probably isn't though.

I see the Cowboys have got a "Kids get in for free" promotion for this game. To me that's a sure sign that the crowd figures are going be very low.

I hate mondays, only the die hards show up. You could make it everyone under 20 gets in free and still struggle for a decent crowd, and not just you most teams on mondays.

 

[Chook Norris]

The problem with crowds is more than just about scheduling and TV. Crowds and TV ratings are both slightly declining. There is/has been a lot of change going on in the NRL (structurally and regarding rules) and a look at social media shows a lot of discontent among the fans. Adding to that, consistently poor refereeing decisions are ruining the game and turning people away. I'd say banning the shoulder charge + mandatory sin-bins for punches + woeful refereeing is having the largest overall effect in terms of the NRL's "soft" image, with flow-on-effects on interest and attendance; News Ltd has capitalised on all this with their hate campaign to drive people away. No doubt ticket pricing also hasn't helped, but i'd be willing to bet those three have had a severe impact

 

[Canard]

I don't believe that officiating is a reason, at all. The EPL, NBA, NFL etc. has some absolute howlers from officiators and their not declining in crowds.

I also don't believe that the TV numbers are "declining" in real terms. Because of multi channel viewing TV is becoming more fragmented, so all Channels are experiencing a decline in numbers, its more about share.

 

[CCJohnC]

Without reading all previous posts my thought for declining crowds:

1) The Draw Not enough Sydney v Sydney games. Should be both home and away.

2) Monday Night Games. OK for TV but not for working people and school kids

3) Not enough Sunday games

4) Cost of admission Law of diminishing return.

 

[Lambretta]

They definitely need to go back to one referee, let the game flow more, stop pedantic penalties, ban the no punch rule and bring back the shoulder charge. All this bullshit about winning new audiences is ridiculous.

Oh and stop going to the video for every minor touch anywhere above the shoulder just so the person can win a penalty. If the ref didn't see why the player went down - play on. They'll soon stop lying on the floor and stopping the game. It puts viewers off. No one wants to see 800 stoppages a game either at the game or on TV. Utter garbage. No wonder people are switching off or not turning up.

Other than that - get rid of Monday Night Football and move that game to a Sunday afternoon

Don't start games at 6pm on a f**king Sunday either unless the Monday is a public holiday. That's the same as Monday night football

When kids have to get up the next day for school - no night games. It's that f**king simple

Night games are for Fridays and Saturdays ONLY

Rugby League is a tough sport, not a touch sport. That's why we watch. Stop alienating the audience we have in an attempt to win an audience that doesn't want to watch.

 

[Perth Red]

The problem with crowds is more than just about scheduling and TV. Crowds and TV ratings are both slightly declining. There is/has been a lot of change going on in the NRL (structurally and regarding rules) and a look at social media shows a lot of discontent among the fans. Adding to that, consistently poor refereeing decisions are ruining the game and turning people away. I'd say banning the shoulder charge + mandatory sin-bins for punches + woeful refereeing is having the largest overall effect in terms of the NRL's "soft" image, with flow-on-effects on interest and attendance; News Ltd has capitalised on all this with their hate campaign to drive people away. No doubt ticket pricing also hasn't helped, but i'd be willing to bet those three have had a severe impact

I really thought given how fed up people where of poor leadership in Gallop and the conflict of interest of ownership with News Ltd and an ineffective ARL, that the feel good factor of the game becoming independent and then getting a massive income increase would see the game have a rapid interest and reconnection with fans. That simply hasn't happened. if that is the ARLC fault, the NRL management fault, the media fault , the players bad behaviour fault I am not sure. Its probably a combination of the above. The game is going through a massive rebuild phase in its infrastructure so maybe this will come in 2018 when it is more settled, we hopefully have the excitement of new clubs coming in and we have reduced the NRL season to less of a slog? As is crowds remain static and tv has dipped a bit.

 

[insert.pause]

not attending a game because of the NRL outlawing punching is a ridiculous excuse, who watches a game of football to see fights and not football?

 

[insert.pause]

Without reading all previous posts my thought for declining crowds:

1) The Draw Not enough Sydney v Sydney games. Should be both home and away.

2) Monday Night Games. OK for TV but not for working people and school kids

3) Not enough Sunday games

4) Cost of admission Law of diminishing return.

I think you mean supply and demand, diminishing return is about productivity inefficiencies.

I don't think giving Sydney more games to not turn up to is a solution.