The more I think about it critically and objectively, the more I think we are specials to miss the 8 again in 2018.
I think we have the squad to be challenging for the Top 4 (not necessarily the team that will be picked though) however the brains behind the team strategy, on a per-game basis and across the season, is heavily lacking. We've only improved by a halfback (consider Packer for Graham a like-for-like replacement) but I'm expecting the same selections and strategy - complete lack of speed on the left edge and lack of brains on the right edge, a 'utility' to site on the bench for 70+ minutes a game, forwards to get burnt out over the course of the year and very little depth/youth to be prepared for first grade when we need them.
Then of course, we need to consider other teams - as long as Mary has been at the helm, we've relied on other teams to fall. This year was the softest comp in recent memory and we still didnt make it.
Looking at the teams above us, I can't imagine any of them falling to great depths (although history tells us that 1 or 2 will lose it). The likely candidates, IMO, are Penrith and Manly. The former will likely be losing their captain and have one of the poorest coaches in the league, however it could be argued that Tyrone May suits the chemistry of the team better than Moylan and some of those youngster have the ability to turn it on despite the coach, so you simply never know. And Manly may be losing Blake Gree, however they may also be gaining a Matt Moylan; the Turbos are a year older and will become more dominant and while they are light on in the forwards, 1 recruit could keep them where they currently are.
Now, looking at the teams below us, there is plenty of potential for us to fall further:
- Canberra: again, a very poor coach, however history tells us that on alternate years, they turn it on ad they've certainly got the team to do it.
- Souffs: They get GI back and recruited an attacking beast in Gagai. Hard to say what will happen under a new coach but there is definitely potential for them to head back up the ladder.
- Tigpies: IMO they are a smokey to creep into the 8, they've got a coach who was turning them around and matching it with some good teams and they are overturning their roster well.
- Titans: This depends on the coach they select, however if they end up with JD or Maguire they have the talent in the squad to get back into Top 8 contention. Remember, Maguire was the one who turned a lazy, self-indulgent GI into one of the most destructive players in the world.
I cant see Dogs or Warriors getting over their issues by ext year, and I think it's a year too early to see Newcastle sneak into the 8, but I definitely think we will be in for another long year unless something drastically changes in the coming months. And TBH, I can't see that happening.