Not sure what you mean by choosing the other mob, as they were both independents in the 2010 election. Oakeshott had been an independent since 2002 and Windsor since1991.
I think you are underestimating the electorate these days. My electorate (Phelps) and Warringah if Steggal wins are seen as a breath of fresh air. The sensible centre cutting through the engrained agendas that come with the coalition. These small L liberals are emerging as viable independents to the traditional blue ribbon electorates. Accordingly there would be zero backlash for these ladies if they had to side with labor to form a government. Having said that, whilst they would guarantee supply, labor wont get dodgy laws through if they need their support.
Anywhoo, could all be a moot point if labor wins by 12 seats as current polling suggests. Then we’ll all be talking about the senate. Half of them are up for re-election. So from 1July we could have a vastly different looking senate.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Senators/Senators_by_service_expiry_date
What I mean in the Oakeshot and Windsor case is that less than 20 per cent of their two electorates voted Labor or another left leaning candidate. I think it was 12% in one of those electorates . They were staunch conservative seats and 80 odd per cent of voters clearly didnt want Labor being in Government. Both electorates clearly benefited under a Labor Government, but the electors in those two electorates clearly weren't pleased with Oakeshot and Windors choice.
I agree with you that Wentworth is definitely a bit different and I'd probably say that they wouldn't be too fussed if Phelps chose Labor to form Government unlike the other electorates that I mentioned.
I don't think Zali Steggal is a snowballs chance in hell of winning Warringah. I wouldnt take too much notice of 'opinion polls' arranged by GetUp that's for sure.
We're still 4 weeks away from the election and anything could happen, but I'd be surprised if Labor didn't win. It's theirs to lose. However, I expect the 'expert polls' to close considerably to almost 50/50 come election time. I don't expect it to be that close though.
With redistributions the current state is 73 Coalition, 72 Labor and 6 Green/Independent in the new 151 seat parliament. I can see the Coalition picking up 5 seats, but I can also see them losing another 10 without Labor even trying too hard.
Senate result will be interesting. The Green vote has really fallen away in every state election held since the last Federal Election and I believe the Greens have a Senator up for re-election in each State.
