2019 Federal Election

[Chipmunk]

Bass, Braddon, Indi, Lindsay and Wentworth to be Coalition gains. Herbert another potential.

Coalition Losses at least Cowper, Reid and Banks in NSW, Pearce and Hasluck likely losses in WA, smashed to virtual oblivion in metropolitan Victoria. Qld hit and miss and still either way, but Petrie and Forde gone.

Status Quo in the other states, but Labor to get the extra seat in the ACT.

Just an update on my earlier thoughts a few weeks back. I think the Hawke factor has probably sealed the deal, but I suggest Labor was going to get enough to win anyway.

So we start out tomorrow at 74 LNP, 69 Labor and 7 Independents.

Herbert I think will definitely go LNP now though. Interesting to see how Bass, Braddon and Lindsay go though, they might stay Labor with the Hawke factor, but I will commit to a Liberal win. That takes LNP up to 80 with 6 wins, but puts Labor down to 66 (after adding in Bean in the ACT) and Independents down to 5 .

However, I think Labor will do really well in outer metropolitan in Melbourne and pick up Chisholm (from Independent), Corangamite, Dunkley and La Trobe. Looks like LNP are also going to lose Cower, Gilmore and Robertson in regional NSW With Reid, Banks, Pearce, Hasluck, Petrie and Forde and Cowper to go Independent, that is 12 gains for Labor, 12 losses for LNP and Net 0 for Independents. That is Labor 78, Liberal 68 and 5 Independents.

I think potentially the Hawke factor could result in holds for Bass, Braddon, Lindsay and possibly a pick up in Dickson for Labor.

Interesting night tomorrow night anyway.

Edit - I forgot about a couple of regional seats in NSW that look likely to go Labor...Updated numbers.

 

[strider]

gotta wonder if the non labor and LNP parties might have a good day out similar to the NSW election .... people seem jack of mainstream

I'm going for a hung result ... with 6 billion pre poll votes unknown on election night

 

[Chipmunk]

gotta wonder if the non labor and LNP parties might have a good day out similar to the NSW election .... people seem jack of mainstream

I'm going for a hung result ... with 6 billion pre poll votes unknown on election night

I think there will be plenty of voters move away from the two main parties and that will probably show up more greatly in the Senate.

With the preferential voting system in operation in the Federal Election, you need quite a few first preference votes for an independent or minor party to dislodge the LNP or Labor candidate in the House of Reps, but it can make the result pretty tight on the night.

 

[strider]

i do think you are right ... labor have it to lose .... they lose, it will be worse than john hewson

 

[SDM]

Shorten 13+
More than 80 seats
Scomo to concede by 9pm then head to Engadine Maccas

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

It's GAME DAY, Merkins!!!

FIRE UP!!!

 

[SDM]

Shorten 13+
More than 80 seats
Scomo to concede by 9pm then head to Engadine Maccas

But if I had do a footy tab pick the score I would go 77-63

 

[Chipmunk]

But if I had do a footy tab pick the score I would go 77-63

So 11 independents or minor parties in the House of Reps?

 

[Gary Gutful]

I just voted LNP. More chance of Parts winning tonight.

 

[WaznTheGreat]

I just voted LNP. More chance of Parts winning tonight.

Don't lie,you voted for Brad Arthur ya weirdo

 

[Bazal]

I voted for Harvey Dent!

Only he can clean up this city

 

[Gary Gutful]

Don't lie,you voted for Brad Arthur ya weirdo

Yep. Vote 1 the Cueball Party.

 

[Eelogical]

I just voted LNP. More chance of Parts winning tonight.

 

[Twizzle]

so one of our local candidates was anti everything party

what a dipshit

 

[Bazal]

so one of our local candidates was anti everything party

what a dipshit

I dunno, I can relate to nihilism and misanthropy...

Better than the Fraser Anning Party or One Nation/Sustainable One Nation Australia Party

 

[Gronk]

From. Polling booth inner west. I LOLd at the Pauline.

 

[Joshuatheeel]

Liberals may win the election

 

[84 Baby]

Liberals may win the election

I dunno I reckon it could be minority Labor government.
Although who knows if it'll even matter cause people going nuts with Senate voting again. Who the f**k are the Equal Parenting Rights Party?

Edit: I was reading the wrong line. People have actually voted pretty normally

 

[Avenger]

Well well well. Great to see conservative Australia not being bullied by lefty bullshit. Trounced in QLD and Tas. I think we may have this.

PS. I still live in a the bluest Liberal Seat in the state.

 

[SDM]

Can’t believe how wrong everyone, myself included got it. You could have $8 this morning, now they are $1.15. Unheard of. Trump kept firming before winning, this one just blew and blew for the last 10 days.