2023-2028 next tv deal discussion

[colly]

Haha, wishful thinking. The last deal was $416mill a year, it won’t be less than that and with the conformation that there are two bidders it could be substantially more depending on how critical the bidders see it as being to their futures business. For example could Kayo/fox sports survive if it lost 500k plus subscribers?

No the last deal was for $360m yearly, the last totally reported and confirmed was a contract (three years into a six year period) for $415m. We are yet to see from Seven TV their 'extended contract' terms ( 2023-2024) they have. Foxtel reported little change from the original contract. Tesltra announced sponsorship detail to take over from the end of contract in 2022 with no confirmation of direct cash transfers.
But they are negotiating NOW and the AFL get $360m NOW- why can't that be negotiation position from the broadcasters. You know they would love to pay less and not just simply give away moola.

 

[colly]

Haha, wishful thinking. The last deal was $416mill a year, it won’t be less than that and with the conformation that there are two bidders it could be substantially more depending on how critical the bidders see it as being to their futures business. For example could Kayo/fox sports survive if it lost 500k plus subscribers?

It's not as clear as you state. lets do the figures for 500,000 subscribers who were to leave-

500,000 times * $30 kayo price times* 12 months = $180 million dollars,
But it Costs Foxtel/Kayo around $25m to broadcast the games and Entertainmnet Shows, so that's total revenue of $180m - $25 broadcast costs to equal= TO BID NO MORE $155m 'just to breakeven'. To put a profit on it say 10% bring to final bid down to $140m.
That's it, Kayo/Foxtel should only bid $140m

 

[Wb1234]

It's not as clear as you state. lets do the figures for 500,000 subscribers who were to leave-

500,000 times * $30 kayo price times* 12 months = $180 million dollars,
But it Costs Foxtel/Kayo around $25m to broadcast the games and Entertainmnet Shows, so that's total revenue of $180m - $25 broadcast costs to equal= TO BID NO MORE $155m 'just to breakeven'. To put a profit on it say 10% bring to final bid down to $140m.
That's it, Kayo/Foxtel should only bid $140m
Because that's the revenue it would lose if 500,000 leave

500k subscribers for the fumble ball is too generous

i would say 200k tops

nrl would be 690k though

they are using the profits made from nrl to pay afl more than the deserve

 

[Iamback]

500k subscribers for the fumble ball is too generous

i would say 200k tops

nrl would be 690k though

they are using the profits made from nrl to pay afl more than the deserve

Take the Swans. If you live in Sydney, You can watch all of their games on 7 mate. Can watch other various games too through the week, Why do you need Fox/Kayo in that case?

 

[Wb1234]

Take the Swans. If you live in Sydney, You can watch all of their games on 7 mate. Can watch other various games too through the week, Why do you need Fox/Kayo in that case?

Didn’t know they did that in Sydney

why do foxtel pay so much for secondary rights

the nrl really needs another pay tv operator to realise the value of its dominant viewership

 

[Iamback]

Didn’t know they did that in Sydney

why do foxtel pay so much for secondary rights

the nrl really needs another pay tv operator to realise the value of its dominant viewership

Yeah both Sydney teams are the AFL game in NSW, the other states get it on Fox. That is why Fox want exclusive games

 

[The_Wookie]

 

[Perth Red]

No the last deal was for $360m yearly, the last totally reported and confirmed was a contract (three years into a six year period) for $415m. We are yet to see from Seven TV their 'extended contract' terms ( 2023-2024) they have. Foxtel reported little change from the original contract. Tesltra announced sponsorship detail to take over from the end of contract in 2022 with no confirmation of direct cash transfers.
But they are negotiating NOW and the AFL get $360m NOW- why can't that be negotiation position from the broadcasters. You know they would love to pay less and not just simply give away moola.

no it was $416mill inc contra avg and you know it. The last pre covid payment was $397.6mill cash and $16mill contra value. the covid reduction had taken them down to $382mill inc contra in '21 but thats as relevant as the NRL's approx $335mill payment in '21.
Everyone wants to pay as little as possible, but with two bidders that will not be possible, especially IF Ch10/Paramount have come in with an opening bid around the $473mill mark.

 

[The_Wookie]

Yeah both Sydney teams are the AFL game in NSW, the other states get it on Fox. That is why Fox want exclusive games

AFL games are guaranteed to be on free to air for local teams in QLD/NSW/SA and WA. Most Victorian teams are lucky if half their games are broadcast in Victoria on FTA, some of the smaller supported teams get bugger all coverage.

Actual FTA games to the end of round 23

Team	Home	Melb	Fox Exc	1 mkt	2 Mkt	3 Mkt	4 Mkt	5 Mkt
Adelaide	22	2		14	7	1
Brisbane	22	11		6	8		2	6
Carlton	13	13	2	7	2	1	3	6
Collingwood	13	13	3	7	1	1	3	7
Essendon	10	10	2	10	1	4	2	3
Fremantle	22	4		12	6	1	1	2
Geelong	9	9	5	8		1	3	5
Gold Coast	22	2		13	7		1	1
GWS	22	3		8	9	2	2	1
Hawthorn	8	8	10	4	2	2	3	1
Melbourne	15	15	3	4		4	2	9
North Melbourne	1	1	10	12
Port Adelaide	1	4		10	5	1	3	3
Richmond	13	13	4	4	2	2	3	7
St Kilda	12	12	5	5		2	2	8
Sydney	22	7		7	6	2	1	6
West Coast	22	1		13	8			1
Western Bulldogs	16	16	1	6		2	5	8

 

[Perth Red]

Its staggering Fox pay us so little when you look at all the concessions they get from NRL compared to AFL.

 

[The_Wookie]

Its staggering Fox pay us so little when you look at all the concessions they get from NRL compared to AFL.

its also staggering that people think the AFL has nothing else to offer Fox.

 

[Wb1234]

Wow so many afl games in nsw and qld with nobody watching.

 

[Iamback]

its also staggering that people think the AFL has nothing else to offer Fox.

Looking at the table, unless you follow a Victorian team then FTA does the job to watch your side

 

[colly]

no it was $416mill inc contra avg and you know it. The last pre covid payment was $397.6mill cash and $16mill contra value. the covid reduction had taken them down to $382mill inc contra in '21 but thats as relevant as the NRL's approx $335mill payment in '21.
Everyone wants to pay as little as possible, but with two bidders that will not be possible, especially IF Ch10/Paramount have come in with an opening bid around the $473mill mark.

If you read previous posts I talked about the corona virus 3 years being referred by the parties as the 'new deal'. This 'new deal is NOW in operation and it if for apox $360m. Original contract 2017-2022 and extended contract are different animal(s) as well.

 

[Wb1234]

So basically foxtel is paying for live and exclusive to some Melbourne clubs only

all the rest they are sharing the coverage with local markets so there is little incentive at all for any state other than Victoria to get foxtel

seven gets to show most games live into their home markets. That’s a great deal for them and terrible for fox.

 

[Perth Red]

If you read previous posts I talked about the corona virus 3 years being referred by the parties as the 'new deal'. This 'new deal is NOW in operation and it if for apox $360m. Original contract 2017-2022 and extended contract are different animal(s) as well.

as will be the 23&24 contracts, you're cherry picking and you know it lol. Do you really think AFL are going to get $360mill cash + contra in the next deal? I hope you're not a gambling man if you back those sort of logics. Going by your illogic NRL shouldn't have got more than $325mill instead of the $380ish cash they did get given thats how much they were receiving when they signed the new deal.

as I said before, way up the difference between possible and likely.

 

[Perth Red]

So basically foxtel is paying for live and exclusive to some Melbourne clubs only

all the rest they are sharing the coverage with local markets so there is little incentive at all for any state other than Victoria to get foxtel

seven gets to show most games live into their home markets. That’s a great deal for them and terrible for fox.

and yet in the last deal the pair were happy to pay $400mill cash to AFL compared to the $349mill cash Ch9/Fox were prepared to pay for NRL. Go figure!

 

[colly]

So basically foxtel is paying for live and exclusive to some Melbourne clubs only

all the rest they are sharing the coverage with local markets so there is little incentive at all for any state other than Victoria to get foxtel

seven gets to show most games live into their home markets. That’s a great deal for them and terrible for fox.

Foxtel will finally grow a pair now we past the offers with non binding bidding. If Foxtel don't stop Seven having games on 7 plus it will cause the AFL subscribers numbers to plummet especially on Kayo. Seven have said they want digital content of what they show and threatened that if they don't get it , 'it's a deal breaker'. Seven plus will have something like 6 games a weekend. Someone in Sydney can watch a game in Brisbane, Melbourne ,Adelaide, or Perth all on Seven plus. This point if taken up by Seven having the digital content from all the games they (Seven Show) it will cause Foxtel to put in a sub par $200m offer for the measly offering that they get. Other things that Foxtel wants which Seven won't give up is all those home games, which is a discreet point from the digital content isssue. On the digital issue Seven will argue we pay millions and no digital content of games we show????? Seven says NOW that's a deal breaker. I cant see big bucks coming from Foxtel because all the AFL can offer is currently owned by Seven, ie Home State games, wanting to show such game on a digital format ie 7 Plus. Finally Foxtell wants a super Saturday, again the AFL will not be able to offer this. I can see Foxtel losing $$$ if they pay over $200m especially as Seven Plus case as cancelling of subscriptions of Kayo will grow as 7 plus will be able to show up 5/6 games per round. Up to now you could not watch a Perth game being in Melbourne generally, but with 7plus you will. So their is plenty of poison pills in this negotiations, some of which might even kill you aka Fox/Kayo really low ball the AFL, possible, yeah sure. Lets see the quality of negotiators at Foxtel they went good at corona virus negotiations and subsequent deal and held their ground why complaining about the SA<WA home games in the Ext Contract 2023-2024, BUT with the Seven plus digital play by Seven and the possible large loss of Kayo AFL subscribers ( which their is not as many as the NRL, I think Foxtel might take the axe to the AFL if they ignore Foxtels major conditions, especially as they pay the most.

KAYO NUMBERS NOW 1.3 MILLION SUBS 9/8/22
BROKEN UP BY 60% NRL AND 40% AFL GIVES YOU A NRL 780K SUBS AND AFL 520 SUBS
FOXTEL RESIDENTIAL 1.48M
So maybe Mr reds call over 'can the foxtel/ kayo withstand 500,00 leaving, the bigger question is whats the breakeven point Foxtel has to pay if Seven get their digital rights. I suggest high $180m pa. Anything less might be a loss in the account books, which after all Foxtel had to get a loan (200m) with off the Murdock family a year ago so it's tight. A bad deal with the AFL could just about kill Foxtel/Kayo in regards to broadcast rights for the AFL

 

[Wb1234]

So if fox pays 200 million and seven 150 million where are they getting the other one hundred million from

 

[Perth Red]

KAYO NUMBERS NOW 1.3 MILLION SUBS 9/8/22
BROKEN UP BY 60% NRL AND 40% AFL GIVES YOU A NRL 780K SUBS AND AFL 520 SUBS
FOXTEL RESIDENTIAL 1.48M
So maybe Mr reds call over 'can the foxtel/ kayo withstand 500,00 leaving, the bigger question is whats the breakeven point Foxtel has to pay if Seven get their digital rights. I suggest high $180m pa. Anything less might be a loss in the account books, which after all Foxtel had to get a loan (200m) with off the Murdock family a year ago so it's tight. A bad deal with the AFL could just about kill Foxtel/Kayo in regards to broadcast rights for the AFL

Interestingly I think Fox may have stuffed up big time creating Kayo as a separate sports service. Most other streaming companies seem to be using Sport as a leader into bigger overall streaming packages, in same way Fox used to do with STV. The stand alone model they have at moment seems unsustainable so expect either subs to go up, a lot, or it to be connected back to main fox and an up in subs to say $50-60 a month. Even paying NRL $240mill doesnt make much sense if the migration to Kayo from STV continues, thats 700kplus subscribers just for NRL to make them any profit.