Ok , I’ve had a look at the form lines and here is my assessment (for what it’s worth):
Had a good look at the last meeting between these 2 teams and Penrith were a little unlucky. Cleary was clearly obstructed when the Storm scored early. Warbrick got 1 on 1 with To’o from a kick and Wishart burst through the front door(something that rarely happens).
Daine Laurie played on the wing that day to accomodate the return of Dylan Edwards from injury. Turuva I think was dropped or injured. Daine Laurie is OK at fullback or in the halves but is definitely not a winger. And I think Penrith have lost more games than won with him playing on the wing (the Raiders match comes to mind)
Having said all that , there are key changes for both teams for the grand final so you can largely disregard that match. Except for one thing: Nick Meaney was poor defensively in that match and is a glaring weakness in the Storm defensive set-up. He is a fullback being molded into a centre , a position they have struggled to nail ever since Justin Olam was ironed out by Haumole Olakaatu and who never regained form or confidence thereafter .
Meaney is not quite Reuben Garrick levels of derp defensively at centre but isn’t far behind. In the grand final they line up this way:
For the Storm :Hughes/Meaney/Warbrick on the right and Munster/Howarth/Coates on the left.
For the Panthers : Luai/Alamoti/Turuva on the left and Cleary/Tago/To’o on the right.
The Panthers will be running at Meaney’s left shoulder all night , drawing him in and hoping Warbrick will follow leaving Turuva with space. Pencil in Turuva for at least a couple of meat pies , maybe even a hatrick. Luai and Edwards are the likely architects of this so pencil them in for the Clive Churchill medal. Luai is in career best form and Edwards is nearing peak fitness. Liam Martin was in beast mode against the Sharks so he could be a good outsider for the Clive Churchill medal. Pencil him in as well for a try off a short Cleary or Luai kick as well as Yeo.
The only advantage the Storm have in this match is their athletic wingers jumping for cross field kicks launched by Munster and Hughes . Both kickers are radar like with their precision and Warbrick , with his Aussie rules background, has saved the Storm’ s bacon before in this way (with a last gasp try against the Roosters from a Munster kick). They match up well against the much shorter Turuva and To’o .
Bellamy has done an exceptional job with this Storm team. They looked pretty pedestrian for the first half of the year but gradually, layer by layer, their attack has evolved. Having said that , the Panthers’ final 20 minutes of any match is their strongest.They come home like the proverbial freight train. The only possible way for the Storm to win is to get something like 58 per cent possession, get out to a big lead and somehow hold on.But I don’t see that happening. The pink Panthers to run away with the game in the last 15 minutes and win by 13 plus . Shouty Dan could put his house on it.
