2025 Crowd Watch

[yakstorm]

Looking at Magic Round, it's a little concerning that there are still tickets left in the top 4 categories for Friday.

It looks like the NRL moving the Broncos from the headline Friday spot, plus the Roosters & Eels having less than ideal starts have played a part.

Hopefully we're only talking a few hundred tickets, but still not ideal.

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

Looking at Magic Round, it's a little concerning that there are still tickets left in the top 4 categories for Friday.

It looks like the NRL moving the Broncos from the headline Friday spot, plus the Roosters & Eels having less than ideal starts have played a part.

Hopefully we're only talking a few hundred tickets, but still not ideal.

The NRL was really poor with releasing these just last week. It seems that these were held back for unsold flight & accom packages, because they are mostly in random blocks. Luckily most of them have shifted now (if you click accessible, you can then roam around the map). Maybe 500-700 seats left.

Might still sell out by Friday

 

[drcmuch]

Canberra's average crowd compared to population, is pretty good. They essentially average 1 person to their games per 29.9 people in their metro population:

...
Afraid I can't have a lot of faith in the rest of the numbers when the team column adds up to 18.

 

[Desert Qlder]

Canberra's average crowd compared to population, is pretty good. They essentially average 1 person to their games per 29.9 people in their metro population:

City/Region	Population	Teams	Proportion per team	Average Crowd (2025)	Crowd per pop
Newcastle	508,437	1​	508,437​	22,913​	22.2​
North Queensland*	414,052	1​	414,052​	18,320​	22.6​
Illawarra	313,842	1​	313,842​	12,310​	25.5​
Canberra	453,558	1​	453,558​	15,161​	29.9​
Sydney	5,557,233	9​	617,470​	19,287​	32.0​
Brisbane	2,780,063	2​	1,390,032​	33,601​	41.4​
Gold Coast	640,778	1​	640,778​	14,286​	44.9​
Auckland	1,797,300	1​	1,797,300​	22,275​	80.7​
Melbourne	5,207,145	1​	5,207,145​	23,348​	223.0​

Melbourne are doing well despite the high quotient, considering they are still an expansion team in the epicenter of AFL. To truly judge the success of Melbourne's crowds you have to look at how they have grown over time (149% growth since 2005, 49% since 2014, and 28% since 2018). Warriors being in traditional Union territory need to be cut some slack too. Again with the Warriors you need to look at growth over time rather than comparing their numbers to the Broncos or the Knights for example. Comparing the Warrior or Storm with the Broncos or Knights would be extremely harsh and lacking acumen.

Newcastle and North Queensland are unsurprisingly the best when it comes to average crowd per head of population.

*The North Queensland population includes Townsville and surrounding LGAs such as Charters Towers, Whitsunday and Mackay, not Cairns though.

This is some of the worst analysis I’ve seen on this thread and it is crawling with AFL fans.

Reminds me of Andrew Webster’s recent description of Brisbane’s western corridor “from Ipswich to Rockhampton.

 

[RedVee]

I’m guessing he meant Toowoomba.

But is that even an accurate description of Brisbane Western Corridor?

 

[i0Nic]

In the Raiders history, their highest ever crowd average at Bruce is 15,298 (2019) and including the likes of Magic, etc is 17,043 (2024).

So far this year they've had crowds of 18,884 (Broncos), 10,914 (Sharks) and 15,686 (Dolphins) at Bruce, to give them a current average of 15,161. If you add in their other home game (Vegas), their average is 22,673.

They are showing some positive signs at GIO from their first 3 games and still have some of their traditionally stronger drawing games to come (Bulldogs, Eels, Dragons). If the Raiders can finish around the 15K mark (or higher) this year, that's a win, relative to where they've been.

Most/All clubs have been increasing their average over the years except Canberra. Just look at other regional teams like Newcastle. I do think there’s a big concern, need a concerted effort to get this to a 20k average and that includes building a new stadium. PVL should be campaigning hard for this, but the raiders aren’t don’t their cause much by rarely getting close to filling Bruce.

But im less concerned about their crowd moreso worried that if its a sign of lagging interest in the nrl in Canberra.

 

[Wb1234]

Most/All clubs have been increasing their average over the years except Canberra. Just look at other regional teams like Newcastle. I do think there’s a big concern, need a concerted effort to get this to a 20k average and that includes building a new stadium. PVL should be campaigning hard for this, but the raiders aren’t don’t their cause much by rarely getting close to filling Bruce.

But im less concerned about their crowd moreso worried that if its a sign of lagging interest in the nrl in Canberra.

Raiders like a lot of clubs lost support after super league in their case to the brumbies whose crowds wet up to 15 to 20k which was more than the raiders at around 12k

Brumbies are now at 6 to 8k whilst raiders 14 to 18k

Their real issue is a lack of success (last gf 94) and they can’t keep any of their players

New stadium would be a bonus but they could average 20k on Bruce if they continue current form

Newcastle whilst also poor on the field sent competing with a super rugby side or a part time afl side

 

[mongoose]

Their real issue is a lack of success (last gf 94) and they can’t keep any of their players

no it isn't dick head.. shit stadium in a shit location on top of it being freezing cold in the winter months.

 

[Wb1234]

no it isn't dick head.. shit stadium in a shit location on top of it being freezing cold in the winter months.

2019 the year they made the grand final

Home crowd average 16238

 

[yakstorm]

Most/All clubs have been increasing their average over the years except Canberra. Just look at other regional teams like Newcastle. I do think there’s a big concern, need a concerted effort to get this to a 20k average and that includes building a new stadium. PVL should be campaigning hard for this, but the raiders aren’t don’t their cause much by rarely getting close to filling Bruce.

But im less concerned about their crowd moreso worried that if its a sign of lagging interest in the nrl in Canberra.

What window are we basing this on? Are we just looking at individual years in isolation or looking at trends over multiple years? If you break down the Raiders averages post Super League, you can see gradual increases from where they were.

- From 2000 - 2009, the Raiders had an average of 11,414 (1,381,120 aggregate from 121 games) for games played in Canberra.

- From 2010 - 2019, the Raiders had an average of 11,759 (1,399,325 aggregate from 119 games) for games played in Canberra.

- Excluding the COVID affected 2020 season where GIO Stadium was capped to 4K or less, the Raiders have an average of 14,081 (605,493 aggregate from 43 games) for games played in Canberra from 2021 - 2025. This year alone they are sitting at 15,161 from 3 of 11 home games.

Even if you include the 90's, which was a golden period for the Raiders, the club is exceeding that average of 13,155 (1,420,791 aggregate from 108 games).

To say they're not growing is unfair. Yes they didn't do as much as they could of over the period, but like a lot of clubs, post Super League they took a hit and the next decade was focusing on consolidation.

Pretty much from 2016 they finally invested in game day experience and went from being a 9K-10K club the years before to getting 12.2K / 14.1K / 11.8K / 15.3K / COVID / 13.6K / 13.0K / 15.3K / 14.0K / 15.2K. Whilst it's lumpy, it is trending in the right direction.

 

[Cumberland Throw]

Chances are Perth will enter the comp in 2027. There will be 18 teams, nine games per round. Which means the NRL would have to restructure the schedule of Magic Round from three to four days. Magic Round could increase attendance from 145k, 150k to maybe 175k, 180k.

Thursday- 1 game
Friday- 2
Saturday- 3
Sunday- 3

Women's Origin to be played on Wednesday night.

If Brisbane holds it forever .. do we see a day when games are split 5 and 4 between new Olympic stadium and Suncorp

 

[Sky_Is_The_Limit]

I hope not. The magic of magic round is that all games are played in one stadium, creating a real festival atmosphere.

Suncorp has the added benefit of Caxton Street, and no amount of retrofitting hospitality businesses around the new Olympic Stadium will replicate what it adds to the game day experience - see Moore Park vs Surry Hills / Paddington and the wasteland that is Sydney Olympic Park as relevant case studies.

 

[Lidcombe Bull]

This old chestnut.

You cannot compare apples v oranges, so bear with me below, I'll use my club (NQ) as an example as its the most isolated and most unique club out of the whole comp.

100% the club represents the whole of NQ (which it has been shit at during times in the past).

You mention you are including certain NQ catchments of down to Mackay and others but mention "not Cairns"......you realise Cairns is actually closer to Townsville than Mackay is??

Also, if you are then going to consider 400kms either side of Townsville for crowd v population rates then you can add the whole of Sydney to your Raiders catchment figure as it's even closer to Canberra than what Mackay and Cairns is to Townsville........... then if you use that same ideology, you can also use Brisbane as a catchment for the Titans.......

Basically there are going to be anomalies/argument either way you look at it. I could have gone just Townsville and Charters LGAs populations perhaps and that would mean they would have the best ratio, lower than the Knights. I was using the ABS regional grouping though which includes Mackay and Bowen, however if we include Cairns and Innisfail or everything in a 400km radius, then the quotient actually becomes higher and looks worse, as the population increases. Including Mackay in the region increases the ratio a bit but thought it was a trade off.

If we use that same methodology then we could say people travel from Goulburn and Wagga to go to Canberra games so they should be included, or people travel from Taree, Singleton and Port to go to Knights games, or people travel from country towns every week to see Sydney teams play etc, etc.

There is no perfect way to count it. Either way Cowboys and Knights are the best supported teams.

 

[Wb1234]

I hope not. The magic of magic round is that all games are played in one stadium, creating a real festival atmosphere.

Suncorp has the added benefit of Caxton Street, and no amount of retrofitting hospitality businesses around the new Olympic Stadium will replicate what it adds to the game day experience - see Moore Park vs Surry Hills / Paddington and the wasteland that is Sydney Olympic Park as relevant case studies.

Well from 2028 there will be nine games a week


And eventually 10 games once they decided who will be team 20

 

[Sky_Is_The_Limit]

^^
There’s already 9 games during the week if you take into consideration Women’s State of Origin. Hopefully by 2028 it’s a big enough event that it can stand on its own two feet.

It’s a public holiday long weekend in Brisbane this week - you could also look to have at least a game on the Monday as the competition expands.

 

[Steel Saints]

If Brisbane holds it forever .. do we see a day when games are split 5 and 4 between new Olympic stadium and Suncorp

Splitting it over two venues kinda destroys the concept of Magic Round. You build a festival atmosphere in and around Caxton Street and Suncorp.

Post Olympics, we are trying to justify a 63k oval stadium. There wasn't a demand to begin with, until Brisbane was announced as host of the Olympics.

Good luck filling it. Although tbf, might fill it during an Ashes series once every four years, and perhaps a lions prelim final.

 

[Perth Red]

Splitting it over two venues kinda destroys the concept of Magic Round. You build a festival atmosphere in and around Caxton Street and Suncorp.

Post Olympics, we are trying to justify a 63k oval stadium. There wasn't a demand to begin with, until Brisbane was announced as host of the Olympics.

Good luck filling it. Although tbf, might fill it during an Ashes series once every four years, and perhaps a lions prelim final.

Could Suncorp hold up to 10 games in one weekend being played on it?

 

[Steel Saints]

Could Suncorp hold up to 10 games in one weekend being played on it?

There were nine games last year spread over four days. Same this year. Or in the future, women's origin could be played the same time as the men.

 

[beave]

Basically there are going to be anomalies/argument either way you look at it. I could have gone just Townsville and Charters LGAs populations perhaps and that would mean they would have the best ratio, lower than the Knights. I was using the ABS regional grouping though which includes Mackay and Bowen, however if we include Cairns and Innisfail or everything in a 400km radius, then the quotient actually becomes higher and looks worse, as the population increases. Including Mackay in the region increases the ratio a bit but thought it was a trade off.

If we use that same methodology then we could say people travel from Goulburn and Wagga to go to Canberra games so they should be included, or people travel from Taree, Singleton and Port to go to Knights games, or people travel from country towns every week to see Sydney teams play etc, etc.

There is no perfect way to count it. Either way Cowboys and Knights are the best supported teams.

What i was trying to point out to you was you included Mackay in the figure which was actually further away in distance from TVL than what Cairns was......


Anyways, IMO a fair way and reasonable way of doing the crowds v population ratio would be a 100kms radius.

For NQ that would mean TVL (200k) + Ingham (5k) + Charters (10k) + Ayr (10k), which totals roughly 225k which puts NQ well in front of any other team in the NRL.

 

[Wb1234]

What i was trying to point out to you was you included Mackay in the figure which was actually further away in distance from TVL than what Cairns was......


Anyways, IMO a fair way and reasonable way of doing the crowds v population ratio would be a 100kms radius.

For NQ that would mean TVL (200k) + Ingham (5k) + Charters (10k) + Ayr (10k), which totals roughly 225k which puts NQ well in front of any other team in the NRL.

That’s bs the name of the team is North Queensland

The cowboys women’s team will be based in cairns

All of these comparisons are stupid anyway