2040s Population Projections

[docbrown]

I thought that in order to add some more data to these expansion discussions, it might be worthwhile looking at the population projections for the early 2040s. I sourced these from ABS, NSW planning, QLD planning etc. I also took the medium projections. And before anyone complains, yes, you might find a different number out there. Just take these as a rough estimate as a stepping off point for further discussion. Projections are also subject to change, as Covid migration changes recently had a big impact.

NSW
Sydney 8.2 million
Camden/Campbelltown 427k
Liverpool 312k
Sutherland 258k
Georges River/Bayside 376k
Randwick/Waverley/Woolhara/Sydney 504k
Canterbury-Bankstown 446k
Inner West/Burwood/Strathfield/Canada Bay 432k
Northern Beaches 289k
Mosman/North Sydney/Lane Cove/Willoughby/Hunters Hill 268k
Kuringai/Hornsby 300k
Ryde 180k
The Hills 284k
Fairfield 247k
Parramatta/Cumberland 694k
Blacktown 492k
Penrith/Hawkesbury 345k
*Note: individual LGA figures come from NSW govt who estimate 6.1 million for 2041 - honestly I think they’re underestimating

Regional NSW
Wollongong/Shellharbour 382k
Central Coast 404k
Newcastle/Lake Macquarie/Maitland/Cessnock/Port Stephens 776k

QLD
Brisbane 3.7 million
Brisbane North/Moreton Bay 968k
Logan 587k
Ipswich 750k
Inner City 406k
Brisbane West 210k
Brisbane South 462k
Brisbane East 285k

Rest of QLD 3.7 million
Gold Coast 960k
Townsville 324k
Cairns 339k
Sunshine Coast 583k

Wasteland States
Melbourne 8.6 million
Geelong 396k
Perth 3.1 million
Adelaide 1.7 million
Tasmania 563k

Territories
ACT/Queanbeyan 620k
Northern Territory 281k

PNG - who knows?
Port Moresby 750k

New Zealand
Wellington 605k
Auckland 2.1 million
Christchurch 453k

 

[Pneuma]

Makes the Dolphins look like an eminently sensible decision. Strengthens the argument for Perth considerably as well. Two teams in Auckland is not out of the question either.

 

[docbrown]

Makes the Dolphins look like an eminently sensible decision. Strengthens the argument for Perth considerably as well. Two teams in Auckland is not out of the question either.

It’s interesting with the Dolphins because even the people who claim they’re not a real Brisbane team, well in the worst case scenario they’re still staking a claim over 1 to 1.6 million people in that Northside/Moreton/Sunshine Coast strip.

 

[jim_57]

Interesting figures, some seem a little low some high. All I can really think about is the traffic but I’ll manage a few takeaways.

Gold Coast aren’t going anywhere, for either code.

Ipswich will get a team one way or another, whether it be stand alone or a West/South Brisbane-Ipswich-Logan-Toowoomba (204k predicted) “The” style team playing at Suncorp.

Adelaide will be the smallest of the “big 5” capitals by a fair margin. Probably still worth a team but those figures might see SEQ4 move ahead of them (if they weren’t already).

I don’t think NZ2 will be Auckland 2 but if there is ever a NZ3 it could well be.

 

[siv]

Ipswich - Brisbane - Gold Coast

Is just one big urban sprawl these days

 

[mongoose]

There's no way Perth is overtaking Brisbane anytime in the next 30 years. Not knocking Perth but it just doesn't have the connections to the rest of the country that Brisbane has. Brisbane is also part of a large conurbation of cities and towns in SEQLD whereas Perth is kind of by itself. I guess there's Mandurah but that is already considered part of greater Perth. Bunbury/Bussleton are over 2hrs away.

 

[docbrown]

Interesting figures, some seem a little low some high. All I can really think about is the traffic but I’ll manage a few takeaways.

Gold Coast aren’t going anywhere, for either code.

Ipswich will get a team one way or another, whether it be stand alone or a West/South Brisbane-Ipswich-Logan-Toowoomba (204k predicted) “The” style team playing at Suncorp.

Adelaide will be the smallest of the “big 5” capitals by a fair margin. Probably still worth a team but those figures might see SEQ4 move ahead of them (if they weren’t already).

I don’t think NZ2 will be Auckland 2 but if there is ever a NZ3 it could well be.

The state and capital figures are from ABS. The NSW LGA figures are from NSW planning dept and I think they are too low. The QLD region figures are also from ABS. The NZ figures are from NZ government census. PNG is a best guesstimate for obvious reasons. I took the middle strand for each (e.g. not the low or high projections).

I can’t see Gold Coast going anywhere with a million people in 20 years.

Adelaide is only marginally growing over the next 20 years but it’s still a big market.

Nearly all the population growth in New Zealand will be on the North Island and most of that will be in Auckland.

 

[docbrown]

Ipswich - Brisbane - Gold Coast

Is just one big urban sprawl these days

And getting bigger.

 

[docbrown]

There's no way Perth is overtaking Brisbane anytime in the next 30 years. Not knocking Perth but it just doesn't have the connections to the rest of the country that Brisbane has. Brisbane is also part of a large conurbation of cities and towns in SEQLD whereas Perth is kind of by itself. I guess there's Mandurah but that is already considered part of greater Perth. Bunbury/Bussleton are over 2hrs away.

In regards to population it will be Brisbane > Perth for quite some time. What interests me is that by the time the 2032 Olympics roll around, SE QLD (Brisbane-Gold Coast) will have a population a bit bigger than what Sydney had back in 2000.

The other thing is that it’s not just Brisbane growing. About a third of the state’s growth will be outside Brisbane, either in Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast or North Queensland.

 

[Billythekid]

Honestly I’d take population figures that far in advance with a huge grain of salt. Countries all around the world are facing decreasing birth rates and Australia isn’t along in relying on migration to push population growth. These figures and Australia growth in general may end up looking wildly different to this. Personally I’m not sure how much I’d like to base decision making on projections like this.

I will also say that whilst we may need to make sure we have teams in some of these growth areas like Perth we also need to focus on the fact that a huge amount of this population is from migration and different cultures. You can’t just assume that population growth even on your home turf will automatically follow your sport so it’s important that we target these new demographics.

 

[docbrown]

Another interesting thing is that the growth in Victoria and WA pretty much matches the growth in NSW and QLD. So even in 20 years the NRL states vs Fumble states population divide will still roughly be the same.

Thinking about existing NRL fanbases, clubs have fans spread all over NSW and QLD etc. However, just thinking about the Sydney club geographic population bases:

Parramatta Eels will be the biggest Sydney club. They will probably market to an area of about 1.5 million minimum.

West Tigers will have an inner west market of 600k and outer west of 600k for about a 1.2 million potential base.

Canterbury Bulldogs and Penrith Panthers about 700 to 900k each. St George Illawarra is about the same but split between Sydney and the Illawarra.

Sydney Roosters about 600k.

Cronulla Sharks and Manly Sea Eagles probably closer to 300k

South Sydney Rabbitohs are very hard to gauge as their fanbase is well spread.

 

[docbrown]

Honestly I’d take population figures that far in advance with a huge grain of salt. Countries all around the world are facing decreasing birth rates and Australia isn’t along in relying on migration to push population growth. These figures and Australia growth in general may end up looking wildly different to this. Personally I’m not sure how much I’d like to base decision making on projections like this.

I will also say that whilst we may need to make sure we have teams in some of these growth areas like Perth we also need to focus on the fact that a huge amount of this population is from migration and different cultures. You can’t just assume that population growth even on your home turf will automatically follow your sport so it’s important that we target these new demographics.

All valid points. I will say Australia is well placed to keep up its migration intake compared to other OECD countries and maintain a high growth rate for a developed country.

The interest thing is that when I looked this up, I came across an official government projection for 1996 that said we’d hit 26 million in 2033. We’ve down that a decade early.

Also if you read my posts on here I regularly remind people that football fans of all codes are a minority segment of the population. Looking at populations should be viewed as a potential marketing base, not a guaranteed one.

 

[Wb1234]

South western coridoor in Brisbane is a certainty

 

[flippikat]

If anyone wants to run the numbers on New Zealand locations, the stats NZ data is here :

Subnational population projections: 2018(base)–2048 update | Stats NZ

The low, medium, and high growth projections all indicate the population growth rate will generally slow across most regions, cities, districts, and Auckland local board areas, with this change more noticeable between 2033 and 2048.

www.stats.govt.nz

I see medium projections for 2043 as follows:
Auckland region of 2.2 million people in 2043 - up from 1.6 million now,
Wellington region from 527k now, climbing up to 596k in 2043,
and Canterbury region up from 628k now, to 762k in 2043.

 

[Iamback]

It’s interesting with the Dolphins because even the people who claim they’re not a real Brisbane team, well in the worst case scenario they’re still staking a claim over 1 to 1.6 million people in that Northside/Moreton/Sunshine Coast strip.

An area with no other professional sports teams either

 

[Iamback]

On this data, In theory is great. Though if most are coming from the Sub continent then RL may not benefit. Enough time to fix the low interest in that community though

 

[flippikat]

Surely NZ 2 needs to be Christchurch based on the new covered stadium, intense rivalry with Auckland, decent sports culture there & population projections?

 

[jim_57]

Surely NZ 2 needs to be Christchurch based on the new covered stadium, intense rivalry with Auckland, decent sports culture there & population projections?

Stadium and population wise it makes sense. Sponsors & backers, no idea.

 

[flippikat]

Stadium and population wise it makes sense. Sponsors & backers, no idea.

As far as sponsors go, there's probably a fair pool of "competitor sponsors" who might get on board - eg with the Warriors being sponsored by One NZ (local rebrand of Vodafone), maybe Spark or 2Degrees links with NZ 2... or with Wendy's association with the Warriors maybe McDonalds or Pizza Hutt get in on the new team.

 

[docbrown]

South western coridoor in Brisbane is a certainty

At least 1 to 1.9 million people by 2043.

If anyone wants to run the numbers on New Zealand locations, the stats NZ data is here :

Subnational population projections: 2018(base)–2048 update | Stats NZ

The low, medium, and high growth projections all indicate the population growth rate will generally slow across most regions, cities, districts, and Auckland local board areas, with this change more noticeable between 2033 and 2048.

www.stats.govt.nz

I see medium projections for 2043 as follows:
Auckland region of 2.2 million people in 2043 - up from 1.6 million now,
Wellington region from 527k now, climbing up to 596k in 2043,
and Canterbury region up from 628k now, to 762k in 2043.

Most of the growth over the next 20 years is on the North Island. 145,000 vs 630,000 respectively. And most of that 630,000 (342,000) growth is in Auckland.

Whilst Canterbury will be 762k it's also a big district area-wise. Christchurch City proper will be about 438k.

If you were to apply the same kind of Canterbury-size area radius but center it on Wellington, you're looking at 597k in Wellington, 278k in Manawatu, 204k in Hawke's Bay and 137k in Taranaki - around a million or so people. Without including Waikato, Bay of Plenty or Gisborne.

Just food for thought.