2040s Population Projections

[Brian potter]

Depends where in Canterbury that projected growth is though- the region’s population is currently heavily weighted towards Christchurch and its satellite towns and I doubt that’s going to change, can’t really see places like Timaru or Methven really accounting for much of the growth. It’ll all be Christchurch, Kaiapoi, Rolleston etc.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

The biggest South Island growth areas are Selwyn district, Christchurch and Queenstown. Place like the West Coast will actually decline.

Yeah exactly- so (given that Queenstown isn’t in Canterbury) all the Canterbury growth is going to be within a Christchurch team’s catchment (you’d presume the growth in Selwyn will almost all be around Rolleston/Lincoln as Christchurch expands outwards).

In the North Island I’d imagine it’s all Auckland, Wellington, Waikato and the western Bay of Plenty.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

I don’t know what that reply is supposed to be mate I just see a white square

 

[Brian potter]

I don’t know what that reply is supposed to be mate I just see a white square

It was an article about the projected population of urban greater christchurch and its satellite towns by 2030 which for some reason isn’t showing up.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

It was an article about the projected population of urban greater christchurch and its satellite towns by 2030 which for some reason isn’t showing up.

I assume it pretty much agreed with what I was saying re Canterbury growth being concentrated around Christchurch?

 

[Brian potter]

I assume it pretty much agreed with what I was saying re Canterbury growth being concentrated around Christchurch?

Pretty much. Low end population projected at 580k while the high end projection was 615k by 2030.

This population coupled with a new state of the art stadium and being based on the South Island to the warriors north island makes Christchurch the best option for me.

 

[Diesel]

Ipswich - Brisbane - Gold Coast

Is just one big urban sprawl these days

Yep, 200km long city already

 

[NRLMad]

Low interest in sub continent- maybe Chinese, stacks of Indians and Lankans love league

On this data, In theory is great. Though if most are coming from the Sub continent then RL may not benefit. Enough time to fix the low interest in that community though

 

[docbrown]

Some interesting articles today about Melbourne overtaking Sydney as the largest city. It all depends on how you look at the boundaries. It was funny though to see Victorians say that they didn't want the title due to all the infrastructure problems it causes. I hate to break it to them but Melbourne is just going to sprawl out forever.

 

[westerntiger]

Some interesting articles today about Melbourne overtaking Sydney as the largest city. It all depends on how you look at the boundaries.

They trot out the same pathetic articles every few months arguing over whether or not the Central Coast should count as 'greater Sydney'. It's tedious rubbish in my opinion.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Some interesting articles today about Melbourne overtaking Sydney as the largest city. It all depends on how you look at the boundaries. It was funny though to see Victorians say that they didn't want the title due to all the infrastructure problems it causes. I hate to break it to them but Melbourne is just going to sprawl out forever.

Yep, pretty much flattish farmland for hundreds of km north and west of Melbourne, and for a fair way southeast too so it’s just gonna keep sprawling. Sydney only really has room to the northwest and southwest and that will run out eventually.

 

[Wb1234]

The Western Corridor will definitely get a team, that was pretty set as soon as they picked the Dolphins instead of Firehawks. If I had to guess it’ll be Jets as another “The” situation aiming to represent Ipswich, Logan, the Southern & Western suburbs and out to the Lockyer Valley & Toowoomba.

So essentially all major population centres in Southern Queensland “represented” by a team.

Broncos - Brisbane “city” team.
Dolphins - North & East Brisbane, Redcliffe, Moreton Bay, Sunshine Coast.
Jets - South & West Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba.
Titans - Gold Coast, Tweed, Northern NSW.

Where a 4th SEQ sits in the pecking order with Perth, Christchurch, Wellington, Adelaide, PNG etc is the only question.

Merger between easts and western coridoor

 

[greenBV4]

They trot out the same pathetic articles every few months arguing over whether or not the Central Coast should count as 'greater Sydney'. It's tedious rubbish in my opinion.

tbf to be accurate if the CC is included in Sydney then Geelong should be Melbourne, but this typically doesn't happen

agree ie the flatness of Melbourne surrounds, lots of room to sprawl, especially when you look how little the city has grown to the west at this point, geelong is also sprawling upwards so that gap will be closed very soon - although there is a lot of vocal rejection to sprawl and a focus on inner city and PT adjacent density instead - ive been amazed how quickly low- medium high-rises are popping up in the inner east

 

[Stormy weather]

Some interesting articles today about Melbourne overtaking Sydney as the largest city. It all depends on how you look at the boundaries. It was funny though to see Victorians say that they didn't want the title due to all the infrastructure problems it causes. I hate to break it to them but Melbourne is just going to sprawl out forever.

As a Melbournian I hope we make some sensible decisions about growth. Constantly adding to the urban sprawl is good for nobody

 

[greenBV4]

As a Melbournian I hope we make some sensible decisions about growth. Constantly adding to the urban sprawl is good for nobody

I studied architecture & urban design and the academic community is very vocally against it (with Sydney often used a case study why), especially when it doesn't come with the necessarily PT and amenities off the bat, but end of the day money talks I guess and there is probably more to be made from developers via sprawl, and a lot of councils are still adamant on not raising height restrictions

 

[MugaB]

tbf to be accurate if the CC is included in Sydney then Geelong should be Melbourne, but this typically doesn't happen

agree ie the flatness of Melbourne surrounds, lots of room to sprawl, especially when you look how little the city has grown to the west at this point, geelong is also sprawling upwards so that gap will be closed very soon - although there is a lot of vocal rejection to sprawl and a focus on inner city and PT adjacent density instead - ive been amazed how quickly low- medium high-rises are popping up in the inner east

Then Sydney would add newcastle, if you added geelong, when does it stop?

 

[greenBV4]

Then Sydney would add newcastle, if you added geelong, when does it stop?

distance wise geelong is much more comparable to the CC than Newcastle

but yes its a stupid argument, atm Geelong isn't included as greater Melbourne (and IMO shouldn't be, and the CC shouldn't be Sydney) but looking at growth corridors wouldn't surprise me if one day soon it is

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Then Sydney would add newcastle, if you added geelong, when does it stop?

Including either the CC or Geelong is silly, both are distinct and separated from the main city by rural areas.
However I can see Melbourne and Geelong eventually merging as they both grow as they’re only separated by farmland, whereas the CC and Sydney will never merge as they’re separated by national parks and bodies of water. Sydney’s northern limit will always be the Hawkesbury river and the national parks and bush land adjoining it.

 

[mongoose]

Brisbane will merge with Gold Coast before either of these, it practically already has.

 

[Wb1234]

Yep, pretty much flattish farmland for hundreds of km north and west of Melbourne, and for a fair way southeast too so it’s just gonna keep sprawling. Sydney only really has room to the northwest and southwest and that will run out eventually.

Sydney will never run out they just rezone more units and increase densities

places like box hill are new suburbs with high densities