2040s Population Projections

[jim_57]

At least 1 to 1.9 million people by 2043.

Most of the growth over the next 20 years is on the North Island. 145,000 vs 630,000 respectively. And most of that 630,000 (342,000) growth is in Auckland.

Whilst Canterbury will be 762k it's also a big district area-wise. Christchurch City proper will be about 438k.

If you were to apply the same kind of Canterbury-size area radius but center it on Wellington, you're looking at 597k in Wellington, 278k in Manawatu, 204k in Hawke's Bay and 137k in Taranaki - around a million or so people. Without including Waikato, Bay of Plenty or Gisborne.

Just food for thought.

Ideally both eventually. Plus maybe Auckland 2.

I think whichever misses out on one of the 18-20 spots might be waiting a while though.

 

[flippikat]

At least 1 to 1.9 million people by 2043.

Most of the growth over the next 20 years is on the North Island. 145,000 vs 630,000 respectively. And most of that 630,000 (342,000) growth is in Auckland.

Whilst Canterbury will be 762k it's also a big district area-wise. Christchurch City proper will be about 438k.

If you were to apply the same kind of Canterbury-size area radius but center it on Wellington, you're looking at 597k in Wellington, 278k in Manawatu, 204k in Hawke's Bay and 137k in Taranaki - around a million or so people. Without including Waikato, Bay of Plenty or Gisborne.

Just food for thought.

Good point on catchments, and part of the puzzle is what transport investment unfolds over the next two decades - the big thing that Wellington has going for it is an electric rail commuter network that regularly services Johnsonville, the Hutt Valley & Porirua-Kapiti between 6am and midnight every day... and the some daily diesel powered services to Palmerston North (Manawatu district) & Masterton (Wairarapa) - but those mostly focused on commuter peak times.

If the Manawatu & Wairarapa services get beefed-up to regular running through the day (akin to the frequent electeic services), that's a game-changer.. and Christchurch/Canterbury just don't have anything like that for their satellite towns.

 

[docbrown]

Ideally both eventually. Plus maybe Auckland 2.

I think whichever misses out on one of the 18-20 spots might be waiting a while though.

It will be literally whichever bidder gets it act together.

Population's moot if no one is putting a hardcore offer on the table.

 

[docbrown]

Ideally both eventually. Plus maybe Auckland 2.

I think whichever misses out on one of the 18-20 spots might be waiting a while though.

That's why I'd like to know what the plan is for the region that missed out. Also Waikato will also be another big area of 600k+.

 

[LimeRick]

I thought that in order to add some more data to these expansion discussions, it might be worthwhile looking at the population projections for the early 2040s. I sourced these from ABS, NSW planning, QLD planning etc. I also took the medium projections. And before anyone complains, yes, you might find a different number out there. Just take these as a rough estimate as a stepping off point for further discussion. Projections are also subject to change, as Covid migration changes recently had a big impact.

NSW
Sydney 8.2 million
Camden/Campbelltown 427k
Liverpool 312k
Sutherland 258k
Georges River/Bayside 376k
Randwick/Waverley/Woolhara/Sydney 504k
Canterbury-Bankstown 446k
Inner West/Burwood/Strathfield/Canada Bay 432k
Northern Beaches 289k
Mosman/North Sydney/Lane Cove/Willoughby/Hunters Hill 268k
Kuringai/Hornsby 300k
Ryde 180k
The Hills 284k
Fairfield 247k
Parramatta/Cumberland 694k
Blacktown 492k
Penrith/Hawkesbury 345k
*Note: individual LGA figures come from NSW govt who estimate 6.1 million for 2041 - honestly I think they’re underestimating

Regional NSW
Wollongong/Shellharbour 382k
Central Coast 404k
Newcastle/Lake Macquarie/Maitland/Cessnock/Port Stephens 776k

QLD
Brisbane 3.7 million
Brisbane North/Moreton Bay 968k
Logan 587k
Ipswich 750k
Inner City 406k
Brisbane West 210k
Brisbane South 462k
Brisbane East 285k

Rest of QLD 3.7 million
Gold Coast 960k
Townsville 324k
Cairns 339k
Sunshine Coast 583k

Wasteland States
Melbourne 8.6 million
Geelong 396k
Perth 3.1 million
Adelaide 1.7 million
Tasmania 563k

Territories
ACT/Queanbeyan 620k
Northern Territory 281k

PNG - who knows?
Port Moresby 750k

New Zealand
Wellington 605k
Auckland 2.1 million
Christchurch 453k

It's interesting that Adelaide was pretty much neck-and-neck with Brisbane for the status of third largest city in the 1960s.

Now they might one day be overtaken by what is essentially Brisbane's satellite suburb.

 

[docbrown]

It's interesting that Adelaide was pretty much neck-and-neck with Brisbane for the status of third largest city in the 1960s.

Now they might one day be overtaken by what is essentially Brisbane's satellite suburb.

They were 5.5% of the total population in 1960. Now they're about 5.2%. In 20 years they'll be 4.8%.

By comparison, Sydney and Melbourne are now about 20% of the population each and they'll both grow to about 25% over the next 20 to 30 years.

Brisbane will be about 10% in 20 to 30 years. It does highlight Adelaide's relative stagnation.

 

[mongoose]

SA has always relied on manufacturing but that has slowly died over the decades... I think there's some mining there but nowhere near as much as WA, QLD or NSW... QLD has a much more diverse economy than SA too.

 

[Stormy weather]

Makes the Dolphins look like an eminently sensible decision. Strengthens the argument for Perth considerably as well. Two teams in Auckland is not out of the question either.

Surely not when the first one is shit. A second NZ side will happen

 

[Stormy weather]

They were 5.5% of the total population in 1960. Now they're about 5.2%. In 20 years they'll be 4.8%.

By comparison, Sydney and Melbourne are now about 20% of the population each and they'll both grow to about 25% over the next 20 to 30 years.

Brisbane will be about 10% in 20 to 30 years. It does highlight Adelaide's relative stagnation.

Adelaide has not grown due to all the nuclear testing in SA. It was the third largest city post war by some way. Mine exploration lead to massive population growth in Perth and Brisbane. Where a lot of south Australia was closed for exploration. On top of that as Melbourne grew more you started seeing a trend of domestic migration from Adelaide to Melbourne

 

[titoelcolombiano]

This shows why the Dolphins were so important and why the Jets (Western Corridor) are so important. RL is growing with SEQ so it continues to dominate here. No other code is in a position to take advantage of the growth of our region.

 

[greenBV4]

This shows why the Dolphins were so important and why the Jets (Western Corridor) are so important. RL is growing with SEQ so it continues to dominate here. No other code is in a position to take advantage of the growth of our region.

It's not like clubs have a cap on number of supporters though

Just because a city gets more people shouldn't mean it needs more teams, until the broncos (and now dolphins) are regularly selling out games (meaning some supporters can no longer attend) they still have room for growth

Saying that, Brisbane will definately get a 3rd team eventually, I just hope we get some teams in areas with no representation set up first

 

[jim_57]

Just because a city gets more people shouldn't mean it needs more teams, until the broncos (and now dolphins) are regularly selling out games (meaning some supporters can no longer attend) they still have room for growth

Saying that, Brisbane will definately get a 3rd team eventually, I just hope we get some teams in areas with no representation set up first

The Western Corridor will definitely get a team, that was pretty set as soon as they picked the Dolphins instead of Firehawks. If I had to guess it’ll be Jets as another “The” situation aiming to represent Ipswich, Logan, the Southern & Western suburbs and out to the Lockyer Valley & Toowoomba.

So essentially all major population centres in Southern Queensland “represented” by a team.

Broncos - Brisbane “city” team.
Dolphins - North & East Brisbane, Redcliffe, Moreton Bay, Sunshine Coast.
Jets - South & West Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba.
Titans - Gold Coast, Tweed, Northern NSW.

Where a 4th SEQ sits in the pecking order with Perth, Christchurch, Wellington, Adelaide, PNG etc is the only question.

 

[docbrown]

It's not like clubs have a cap on number of supporters though

Just because a city gets more people shouldn't mean it needs more teams, until the broncos (and now dolphins) are regularly selling out games (meaning some supporters can no longer attend) they still have room for growth

Saying that, Brisbane will definately get a 3rd team eventually, I just hope we get some teams in areas with no representation set up first

Agreed but they'll never sell out every game - things like weather etc will always play a factor, so the question is how many sell outs and average crowds suggests there's room for a third team?

I'd say if they're both selling out every Queensland derby game (3 each per team) and 2-3 others (so about half their home game allocation), then they'll likely be averaging 35k to 40k. At that point I'd argue there's room for a third team.

 

[greenBV4]

Agreed but they'll never sell out every game - things like weather etc will always play a factor, so the question is how many sell outs and average crowds suggests there's room for a third team?

I'd say if they're both selling out every Queensland derby game (3 each per team) and 2-3 others (so about half their home game allocation), then they'll likely be averaging 35k to 40k. At that point I'd argue there's room for a third team.

There's room right now, but you'd be delaying/preventing those other 2 reaching that peak

 

[docbrown]

There's room right now, but you'd be delaying/preventing those other 2 reaching that peak

To me Perth is the biggest priority.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

It's not like clubs have a cap on number of supporters though

Just because a city gets more people shouldn't mean it needs more teams, until the broncos (and now dolphins) are regularly selling out games (meaning some supporters can no longer attend) they still have room for growth

Saying that, Brisbane will definately get a 3rd team eventually, I just hope we get some teams in areas with no representation set up first

We are not talking one city though, we are talking a region that is going to have four cities close to or over a million in population (Sunny Coast, Brisbane, Ipswich, Gold Coast), with RL blood running in our veins. Either take advantage of it, or some inferior code eventually will. It just make sense for the game to do this.

 

[Colk]

Very good thread. Population projections/demographics are a massive thing (nearly the biggest thing when talking about marketing and business). Just go where the money and population is going.

To me looking at where the country is expanding or the growth areas you would say the big four are SEQ, NSW (Sydney/Newcastle/Illawarra and maybe even stretching down to Canberra), Melbourne and Perth. If you would make an estimation on future trends you would say nigh 3/4 (maybe 2/3rds more conservatively) of the population will be living in these areas.

On that note you would definitely go Perth, another team in NZ (there’s enough people there and you have the timezone difference) and decide between another team in SEQ or Adelaide. Now I’m undecided about the last one but Qld is growing much more quickly than SA and it is less of a challenge which are both positives. I could definitely understand going down that route.

 

[flippikat]

So essentially all major population centres in Southern Queensland “represented” by a team.

Broncos - Brisbane “city” team.
Dolphins - North & East Brisbane, Redcliffe, Moreton Bay, Sunshine Coast.
Jets - South & West Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba.
Titans - Gold Coast, Tweed, Northern NSW.

Fair call, and if this happens, we have a good potential spread of team colors too.

Broncos - I hope they lean more heavily into the yellow (maybe a revival of their 1988 jersey with yellow top-half & maroon bottom half & shorts?)

Dolphins - Red, with some white & a bit of gold (Basically San Francisco 49ers colors)

Jets - Green, White & Black.. or better still, Green, Silver & Black.

Titans - the two-tone blue, plus some yellow & white (but mostly blue).

So you have yellow, red, green, and blue parts of SE Queensland - and most importantly when those teams clash you could have both teams wearing their primary jersey.

Keeping in mind that the Cowboys have mostly White & Navy blue.. you have pretty distinct color sets for ALL Queensland teams.

[Edit - added ideas of what the 4 SE-Qld teams could wear in this scenario.. using the Townsville Blackhawks to show a reasonable green & black combo)

 

[SpaceMonkey]

At least 1 to 1.9 million people by 2043.

Most of the growth over the next 20 years is on the North Island. 145,000 vs 630,000 respectively. And most of that 630,000 (342,000) growth is in Auckland.

Whilst Canterbury will be 762k it's also a big district area-wise. Christchurch City proper will be about 438k.

If you were to apply the same kind of Canterbury-size area radius but center it on Wellington, you're looking at 597k in Wellington, 278k in Manawatu, 204k in Hawke's Bay and 137k in Taranaki - around a million or so people. Without including Waikato, Bay of Plenty or Gisborne.

Just food for thought.

Depends where in Canterbury that projected growth is though- the region’s population is currently heavily weighted towards Christchurch and its satellite towns and I doubt that’s going to change, can’t really see places like Timaru or Methven really accounting for much of the growth. It’ll all be Christchurch, Kaiapoi, Rolleston etc.

 

[docbrown]

Depends where in Canterbury that projected growth is though- the region’s population is currently heavily weighted towards Christchurch and its satellite towns and I doubt that’s going to change, can’t really see places like Timaru or Methven really accounting for much of the growth. It’ll all be Christchurch, Kaiapoi, Rolleston etc.

The biggest South Island growth areas are Selwyn district, Christchurch and Queenstown. Place like the West Coast will actually decline.