A Second Melbourne? Where would it be based and how would it impact the Storm?

[joshie]

Until we can see how Rugby League goes when played Live in Victoria we cannot really comment. We need the next tv deal to have fair coverage all over australia for all australians

 

[adamkungl]

Irrelevant to TV and population and all the nonsense. It's all good and well to put ONE team in Melbourne and Perth and Adelaide... but any more than that is a drain considering the currently miniscule player production of these areas.

1 Melbourne team is worth the player drain vs $. 2? f**k no.
Places like the CC, SE QLD, PNG, NZ and to a far lesser extent Perth are all calling for teams. Each and everyone one of these would be self sustaining, or better yet, produce a surplus, in terms of local playing numbers before the Melbourne Storm will.

 

[AlwaysGreen]

A lot of you are starting to sound like the typical AFL nuts. Until Victoria produce NRL quality players, and I'm not talking about counting someone who spent a Christmas holidays at their Gran's holiday house at Moe, then the idea of a 2nd Melbourne side is laughable.

 

[eozsmiles]

A lot of you are starting to sound like the typical AFL nuts. Until Victoria produce NRL quality players, and I'm not talking about counting someone who spent a Christmas holidays at their Gran's holiday house at Moe, then the idea of a 2nd Melbourne side is laughable.

Regardless of whether their nanna was born at Moe, there is already a shallow pool of players all over the comp. The next two teams will stretch that further. Let's wait 5-10 years after the 2015 expansion before thinking about who or where gets in next.

 

[Loudstrat]

As for the TV thing.......

A second team in Melboring will probably play in front of 6k crowds. It matters not where the team is based for TV - what matters is the extra game that TV stations have to pay up to broadcast.

That being the case, put the team where the bloody crowds will be!!!!!!!!!!

It is also worth considering that teams edont have to be linked to anywhere sensible - as ling as they are on telly), lets go the whole hog. F*ck Melbourne. How about Los Angeles?

 

[docbrown]

A second team in Melbourne is inevitable. A city that will have 7,000,000 people in it will have more more than 1 team.

But it's 30 years off and will only happen after a bunch of other teams are included. As I've said before, I've always envisioned a 24 team comp.

 

[Loudstrat]

Its as inevitable as a Sharks premiership..............

By 2030 we will probably be looking at a unified comp with the ESL, not still trying to wrangle the next team out of our small population base. 7 million sounds big by todays standards, but remember the original 8 team comp of 1909 came from a city with barely 1 million people.

 

[Goddo]

A second team in Melbourne is inevitable. A city that will have 7,000,000 people in it will have more more than 1 team.

But it's 30 years off and will only happen after a bunch of other teams are included. As I've said before, I've always envisioned a 24 team comp.

I'd agree that its a long term option, half a century away. If we expand in 2015 with say Perth and Ipswich, I can't see the NRL expanding again at least until 2025.

At which point the locations being discussed would include Adelaide, Sunshine Coast, Wellington, Gosford. I'd guess Sunshine Coast and Wellington would get the go ahead - Queensland would be as big as Victoria by 2030 and Brissy as big as Sydney is now by 2050. 5 Qld clubs is not hard to imagine, and NZ would be ready for a second club by then.

After that expansion won't be on the radar for at least another 10 years. Its at this point where the NRL is saturated in its home markets that I think Adelaide and Melbourne II start to emerge as options. So 2040 and then some.

I think the NRL will have its hands full just getting a token presence in Perth and Adelaide as well as tapping into home markets over the next 40 years, let alone looking at Melbourne 2.

 

[Kirky]

At a bare minimum, how about we wait 'till the current Melbourne side can stand on its own two feet. I understand the desire to have a bigger presence in Australia's 2nd biggest city, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Storm were going okay before the cap-scandal and introduction of the Rebels, I saw we don't give them any more headaches in the near future 'till they're back to a position of stability.

Besides, Perth, SEQ, CC, Wellington, Adelaide should all come before Melbourne 2.

 

[docbrown]

Its as inevitable as a Sharks premiership..............

By 2030 we will probably be looking at a unified comp with the ESL,

I don't think so.

not still trying to wrangle the next team out of our small population base. 7 million sounds big by todays standards, but remember the original 8 team comp of 1909 came from a city with barely 1 million people.

What's a small population base? Australia will have a population of 35-40 million, New Zealand about 6 million and PNG god knows what.

I doubt a city of 7,000,000 will remain with only 1 team.

I'd agree that its a long term option, half a century away. If we expand in 2015 with say Perth and Ipswich, I can't see the NRL expanding again at least until 2025.

2015 - Perth, Brisbane II, Central Coast

2018 - Wellington -
to create a 20 team comp in time for the next broadcast deal

2023 - by this time two Sydney teams should be encouraged to merge
2023 - Adelaide -
introduced to cover every major capital and city in Australia & New Zealand and keep a 20 team comp for the next deal within 11 years.

I'd suggest at this point we should consider going to 2 10 team conferences with 5 divisions of 4 teams split across the conferences - 4 QLD teams, 4 Southern Interstate teams, 2 NZ teams + Knights + Bears, 4 West Sydney teams, 4 East Sydney teams

Depending on the growth of the existing 20 teams:

Strong Growth - 2028
Medium Growth - 2033
Low Growth - 2038

A 5th Queensland team (Sunshine Coast or Central Qld) plus Christchurch - to create a 22 team comp

Strong Growth - previous expansion year + 5 years
Medium Growth - previous expansion year + 10 years
Low Growth - previous expansion year + 15 years

A 6th Queensland team (the remaining team out of Sunshine Coast or Central Qld) plus Melbourne II or PNG - to create a 24 team comp

Queensland Division:
QLD North - Cowboys, Central Qld, Sunsihne Coast
QLD South - Broncos, Brisbane II, Titans

Sydney Division:
SYDNEY WEST - 3 Sydney teams
SYDNEY EAST - 3 Sydney teams

Eastern Division:
CENTRAL - Knights, Bears, Manly
NZ - Warriors, Wellington, Christchurch

Southern Division:
WEST - Perth, Adelaide, Raiders
SOUTH - Storm, Melbourne II, Dragons

etc

 

[Lockyer4President!]

I really have a hard time seeing the comp growing beyond 20-22 teams in my lifetime.

I think once it gets to 20-odd teams we'll have teams in all of the large population centres in Aus/NZ. We'll be getting all we can from the media rights based on our national coverage, so there won't be that incentive of more money to drive us to expand.
We may see relocation ala US sports after this point because the league will not want to dilute $$/players any further ie Manly still can't get Brookie upgraded so the QLD government offers them a new stadium/other incentives to move north, etc.

We'll be at the stage where we'll want the strongest comp and the strongest clubs possible, which is fine by me.

 

[docbrown]

In 40 years time though there are going to be a lot larger populations centres spread over a much wider area.

Perth - 4 million
Regional WA - 2 million
Adelaide - 2 million
Melbourne - 7 million
Regional Victoria - 2 million
Canberra - 0.6 million
Sydney - 7 million
Newcastle - 1 million
Central Coast - 0.6 million
Wollongong - 0.5 million
Rest of regional NSW - 1 million
Gold Coast - 1 million
Brisbane - 4 million
Sunshine Coast - 0.6 million
Central Qld - 0.5 million
North Qld - 0.5 million

The places that will remain stagnant or have low growth are Northern Territory, Tasmania and South Australia.

Looking at those numbers, I'd be interested as to how many teams people think we should have in each by 2050.

 

[Loudstrat]

Doc, why obsess with 2050 when we can see no landscape beyond the mooted 2015 expansion date?

Think of it this way. 2050 is 38 years away. 38 years ago was 1974. In 1974 the longest away game was Penrith. Every ground had a hill. Some, like NSO, Cumberland and the SCG, had cricket pitches in the middle. There were no hot showers. Players shared a communal bath after the game, and drank out of a sponge from a bucket mid game (one sponge and bucket per team). The player of the round got 2L of orange juice and a ham. Every city had it's own comp. Cronulla were defending grand finallists, Newtown defending club champs. Players still existed who had won a comp with Souths.

We went through the expansion phase because transport and communication had improved to enable it. The opportunity was there to consolidate all the strongholds into one comp. We still havent achieved that, but we will when the CC and maybe CQ are admitted. Then, that phase is over (yes, it may include Perth). The comp wont keep expanding until transport and communication makes it viable to repeat the phase on a bigger scale - and that will be to the UK.

So no, I doubt that there will be 2 Melbournes, unless for some reason we get 2 Newcastles, another three Aucklands, Albury/Wodonga and another few Sydney clubs.

 

[Lockyer4President!]

In 40 years time though there are going to be a lot larger populations centres spread over a much wider area.

Perth - 4 million
Regional WA - 2 million
Adelaide - 2 million
Melbourne - 7 million
Regional Victoria - 2 million
Canberra - 0.6 million
Sydney - 7 million
Newcastle - 1 million
Central Coast - 0.6 million
Wollongong - 0.5 million
Rest of regional NSW - 1 million
Gold Coast - 1 million
Brisbane - 4 million
Sunshine Coast - 0.6 million
Central Qld - 0.5 million
North Qld - 0.5 million

The places that will remain stagnant or have low growth are Northern Territory, Tasmania and South Australia.

Looking at those numbers, I'd be interested as to how many teams people think we should have in each by 2050.

Population isn’t everything though, I think it’s more likely the lower tiers will gain more support than anything if our growth continues. We could see expanded QLD Cup and NSW Cup matches broadcast like the College football games are in the US, for a terrible comparison.

Look at the USA and their huge population, NY is represented by only two NFL teams and it has the same population as Australia.

 

[docbrown]

Doc, why obsess with 2050 when we can see no landscape beyond the mooted 2015 expansion date?

Think of it this way. 2050 is 38 years away. 38 years ago was 1974. In 1974 the longest away game was Penrith. Every ground had a hill. Some, like NSO, Cumberland and the SCG, had cricket pitches in the middle. There were no hot showers. Players shared a communal bath after the game, and drank out of a sponge from a bucket mid game (one sponge and bucket per team). The player of the round got 2L of orange juice and a ham. Every city had it's own comp. Cronulla were defending grand finallists, Newtown defending club champs. Players still existed who had won a comp with Souths.

We went through the expansion phase because transport and communication had improved to enable it. The opportunity was there to consolidate all the strongholds into one comp. We still havent achieved that, but we will when the CC and maybe CQ are admitted. Then, that phase is over (yes, it may include Perth). The comp wont keep expanding until transport and communication makes it viable to repeat the phase on a bigger scale - and that will be to the UK.

So no, I doubt that there will be 2 Melbournes, unless for some reason we get 2 Newcastles, another three Aucklands, Albury/Wodonga and another few Sydney clubs.

I think perhaps the reason the our goals weren't fulfilled is because previous administrations whilst having vague ambitions of a vision really dragged their feet on it. They failed to capitalised on the popularity of the late 60s. They dragged their feet on NSW regional expansion (I mean, we're still waiting for a Central Coast team that was mooted 40 years ago). Then they let the QRL die off and no one at the time thought "Gee, perhaps we'd be better off to have as many strong competitions as possible." Then they had a rough plan to let teams die off naturally and expand at the same time - but did they consider the financial and cultural implications?

To be honest, if the ARLC came out and said - here's our blueprint in five year installments from now until 2050 and to be reviewed and revised every five years, I would honestly applaud for a good half hour or so.

 

[docbrown]

Population isn’t everything though, I think it’s more likely the lower tiers will gain more support than anything if our growth continues. We could see expanded QLD Cup and NSW Cup matches broadcast like the College football games are in the US, for a terrible comparison.

Look at the USA and their huge population, NY is represented by only two NFL teams and it has the same population as Australia.

True but any more teams might cast a sense of dismay over teams chances - hence that magic 32 number. I mean there's enough cities in America to warrant probably another 10 or so franchises in the NFL - but then it's going to blow out sides chances even further.

I think 24 teams - with 21 teams in Australia broken down as
1 WA
1 SA
2 VIC
1 ACT
6 QLD
3 Regional NSW
7 Sydney

plus 3 New Zealand - pretty much gives each side at least a 1,000,000+ cathement area with only the New Zealand teams, WA, SA & VIC with more which is wise given their non heartland location.

 

[Goddo]

I really have a hard time seeing the comp growing beyond 20-22 teams in my lifetime.

I think once it gets to 20-odd teams we'll have teams in all of the large population centres in Aus/NZ. We'll be getting all we can from the media rights based on our national coverage, so there won't be that incentive of more money to drive us to expand.
We may see relocation ala US sports after this point because the league will not want to dilute $$/players any further ie Manly still can't get Brookie upgraded so the QLD government offers them a new stadium/other incentives to move north, etc.

We'll be at the stage where we'll want the strongest comp and the strongest clubs possible, which is fine by me.

+1

 

[Noa]

I think 20 is the number to aim for in about 10-15, and I think we have the talent to support that many. I wouldnt really want to see any more.

20 would be a good number to switch to a division type system to which Im all in favour off.

 

[Loudstrat]

A 32 team comp?

You do realise that we are the same number we were in 1988 - meaning no growth in 25 years come the end of this year. And in the previous 25 years - 4 teams. And the 25 before that - 2 teams. Thats a doubling of the comp in 75 years. Even if we maintain that rate, 2087 is the year.

Anyway, I am sure the ARLC's first plan is NOT going to be working the makeup of the comp in 2050!

Also, 7 million for one team? I give you the London Harlequins.

 

[docbrown]

A 32 team comp?

You do realise that we are the same number we were in 1988 - meaning no growth in 25 years come the end of this year. And in the previous 25 years - 4 teams. And the 25 before that - 2 teams. Thats a doubling of the comp in 75 years. Even if we maintain that rate, 2087 is the year.

Anyway, I am sure the ARLC's first plan is NOT going to be working the makeup of the comp in 2050!

Also, 7 million for one team? I give you the London Harlequins.

32 teams was referring to America and how many teams can sustain interest in a comp that eventually comes down to only 1 winner. Think of things like the Soccer World Cup - 32 is a managable number for elimination without destroying perspecting chances.

What I suggest was within 11 years a 20 team comp with a full national presence plus a doubled presence in New Zealand.

Within 15 to 20 years a 22 team comp strengthening Queensland and New Zealand

Within 20 to 30 years a 24 team comp finalising Queensland and strengthening Melbourne.

So you're talking about growth being stagnant knowing full well that a bunch of teams were culled post super league, including the Bears that you support the reentry of.

In 1995 we had 20 teams with an average of 14,642 without the benefit of divisions and conferences.

In 1997 we had 22 teams playing with averages of 10,610 in one comp and 13,039 in the other, the closest we've ever come to "conferences" but in a time of great uncertainty.

If the super league hadn't have happen rest assured that Sydney clubs would have merged and relocated and we would have had Adelaide, Melbourne and a second New Zealand team added already whilst Central Coast would be covered by the Bears and the South Queensland Crushers would be that strong rival to the Broncos whilst Gold Coast would have grown by having its own boutique stadium in the actual area, all fulfilling the outline that the NSWRL had intended.