Millward has absolutely no idea!
Who is our replacement for James Graham 600k?
Who is our replacement for Tyson Frizell 600k?
Who is our replacement for Jack De Belin 600k?
Who will be our replacement for Paul Vaughan 600l?
That is 2.4m to recruit SOO standard forwards.
Plus savings from off-loading out high priced deadwood: Aitken 350k, Lafai 450k, Norman 800k, Hunt 900k, K Sims 300k, Merrin 400k, Host 200k, Saab 150k and a few of the reserve graders who do not have potential to be first-graders. Approximately 3.5m
I say for 2021 it should be:
1. A Johnston from Souths 750k
2. Ramsey 250k
3. Lomax 400k
4. Feagai 250k
5. Ravalawa 250k
6. Dufty 500k
7. Clune 500k
8. New Prop 600k or De Belin
9. Hunt 900k or McInnes 500k
10. New Prop 600k
11. T Sims 450k
12. New edge forward 600k
13. New lock or McInnes 500k
14. Kerr 300k
15. Blacker 250k
16. Ford 300k
17. New edge forward 400k
Reserve grade
1. Schiller
2. Pereira
3. Junior
4. Williame
5. Feagai
6. Sailor
7. Sullivan
8. Ellis
9. New hooker
10. Lawrie
11. Junior
12. Junior
13. Lomax
14. Junior
15. Junior
16. Junior
17. Junior
Agreed with this massive clean out.
Of the players who've already moved on or not under contract for next year, we would have around $2.6m to spend by your approximations.
I'd also say that Sailor won't be with us next year if he's not in the top grade. So add some more money to that total.
Even if we release none of the deadwood / under-performers, that would be more than enough money to get Johnston, Welch & Hetherington in and perhaps re-sign JDB legal proceedings depending (although the terms of such new deal need to be delicately worked through ie. 1 year with option in our favour for the second + third etc).
Welch & Hetherington potentially coming onboard will hopefully put a rocket up the rest of the forwards to keep improving / performing (particularly those who've been in the system for a long time now i.e. Lawrie, Host, Ford). As with Johnston he'd provide the leadership in our back five that we've been lacking for sometime now and will assist with the further development of Ramsay, the Feagais etc.
The deadwood / under-performers can go back to reserve grade (or Illawarra League so as not to stall the development of our next crop of juniors) in an attempt to force a release on their own accord, and that also includes Jason Saab seeing out his contract. Sadly our coach, recruitment and retention staff have no idea how to deal with this, which will mess our salary cap up for years and make the job of their successors (who will come by 2022 if not sooner) that much harder (our board certainly won't bother keeping these guys accountable).
**EDIT**
My thoughts (underestimating on some and over-estimating on some):
Graham - $500k
Lafai - $400k
Frizell - $500k
Aitken - $300k
Brittain - $100k
de Belin - $600k
Ellis - $100k
Host - $200k
Lovodua - $100k
Sailor - $150k
TOTAL = $2.95m
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE = $2.8-3.2m
Re-Sign:
de Belin - $650k (will command some sort of upgrade but I don't think we should offer any more given he's not played for two years - and he will get through his legal procedings for purpose of this exercise)
Host - $250k
Sailor - $200k
Ellis - $150k
Brittain - $150k (back up hooker)
TOTAL = $1.4m
LEFT IN KITTY = $1.4-$1.8m
Signings:
Must targets:
Alex Johnston - $750k
Christian Welch - $450k
TOTAL = $1.2m
LEFT IN KITTY = $200-600k
Other notables off-contract at other clubs (might be worth exploring some of these if we can't land the above two):
Adam Elliot (Bulldogs)
Jordan McLean & John Asiata (Cowboys)
Matt Ikuvalu (Roosters)
Tom Starling, Sebastian Kris (Raiders)
Scott Sorensen (Sharks)
Brendon Elliot & Cade Cust (Sea Eagles)
Rhys Kennedy (Broncos)
Then there will also be clubs looking to offload players e.g. Panthers - some in there team will be commanding upgrades thus forcing them to promote further junior stocks and forcing others to explore the market
Then there is also the Widdop rumor (which may have an affect on movements for us one way or the other - my take is that he will be back in the NRL next year just a matter of who with).
Let me do a squad based on all of this:
COACH: Shane Flanagan (well Jack is getting off his legal matters in this theory so why can't Flanno?)
The following would be my starting 13, Round 1 2021:
1. Dufty
2. Johnston
3. Z Lomax
4. Feagai (Centre Feagai)
5. Ravalawa
6. Sailor
7. Clune
8. de Belin
9. Hunt
10. Vaughan
11. T Sims
12. Welch
13. McInnes
Spots 14-21... make your bench spots up out of the following with the rest leading the way in reggies:
14. Kerr
15. Host
16. Lawrie
17. Ford
18. Fuimaono
19. Blacker
20. Ellis
21. Brittain
Extended squad:
22. Sullivan
23. Ramsey
24. Williame
25. Feagai (Winger Feagai)
Deadwood Category:
26. Norman (we don't want to be messing our cap up for this - Illawarra League to see out his contract... shouldn't be stalling the development of Sullivan & the next junior half coming through)
27. Merrin (best bet will be retirement - but is in reggies next year otherwise)
28. K Sims (best bet Super League - but is in reggies next year otherwise)
29. Saab (unless any transfer is positive in our favour - reggies... basically get your head in order)
30. Pereira (reggies)
Top of the Development Squad:
- Schiller
- H Lomax
Basically:
1. Install a new coach + recruitment/retention/pathways manager.
2. Re-sign those needed.
3. Focus on the astute signings from outside the club (Johnston & Welch)
3. We will have some money in the kitty - this can be used to dangle a carrot for upgrades for anyone deserving.
4. If we can force any release out of the deadwood category (basically all need to be told that you're out of first grade for next year) then we might be able to recruit one or two extra depending (but don't see a need - give the young fellas a crack).
5. Makes 2022 interesting - plenty of cap space available when the deadwood will no longer cost us financally. Vaughan & T Sims (among others) on notice in 2021.