The gap between the NRL’s premiership heavyweights and struggling clubs is widening.
Last year we blamed the new rules, more fatigue and a faster game for a record number of scoreline blowouts rather than the class and quality difference across the 16 clubs.
Valuing every player at every club – a task I undertook with colleague Brent Read – shows the salary cap is not working and we can’t blame the new rules.
An analysis of the 16 clubs shows that the Sydney Roosters and the Penrith Panthers are, at least on paper, worth up to $3 million worth than some of their rivals.
All clubs might be spending $9.6 million but the Roosters are actually worth $11.55 million and the Panthers $11.05 million by our calculations.
At the same time the Cowboys are worth just $8.02 million and the Bulldogs $8.23 million.
So how did we value them? It’s mostly around form from last year and having sought the opinions of player agents and recruitment experts.
OVERPAID PLAYERS
There are a couple of interesting cases that illustrate why a club like the Cowboys will struggle to compete against their stronger rivals.
Val Holmes is in the salary cap at around $900,000 but we’ve valued him at $550,000. Jason Taumalolo is valued at $750,000 but is paid more than $1 million. Jordan McLean is in the cap at around $650,000 but we rate him a $375,000 front-rower.
There are similar examples among other rosters. Veteran Raiders skipper and centre Jarrod Croker is on around $800,000 in the cap. At this stage of his career he’s worth more like $400,000.
The Knights pay Dave Klemmer $900,000 but he’s probably now worth only half that.
MOST VALUABLE
We have rated champion Manly Sea Eagles fullback Tom Trbojevic and Penrith’s premiership winning half-back Nathan Cleary as $1.4 million players.
Next is Sydney Roosters fullback and Blues Origin skipper James Tedesco at $1.2 million.
Under our estimates the three best players in the competition provide outstanding value to their clubs because they are getting paid well below that amount.
Newly appointed Newcastle Knights skipper Kalyn Ponga is rated the fourth highest at $1.1 million which is close to what he is getting paid. We rate David Fifita, the game’s most destructive forward, at $1 million.
THE IMBALANCE
On face value it’s hard to see how the Roosters can squeeze in so much talent yet stay under the cap. They made the semi-finals last year despite losing the likes of Boyd Cordner, Jake Friend, Brett Morris, Lindsay Collins and Luke Keary.
It is a fact players will stay or sign with the Roosters for less than they can get elsewhere.
There is the attraction of playing under super coach Trent Robinson, winning premierships and playing representative football from a successful side.
This also applies to Melbourne Storm and Craig Bellamy who has such a great record of turning mediocre footballers into great players.
At the other end of the scale teams like the Wests Tigers have to pay way ‘overs’. They have Luke Brooks on $900,000 yet we suggest he’s worth more like $550,000. James Tamou is on close to $800,000 but is no longer in that big-money league.
THE BLOWOUTS
Last season saw the most number of blowouts in 86 years of rugby league. On one forgettable Super Saturday we had a combined score line of 148-6.
Rather than build to achieve sustainable success, impatient clubs and coaches are panic buying looking for immediate results. To try to become a top four or top eight club overnight.
It’s not working. This analysis of the rosters proves that.
