That very much depends on if you end up with a National league that sponsors and TV want or a provisional league that falls behind national leagues. Whilst there is certainly long term sustainability in only putting teams where they can stand on their own two feet from day one it does very much limit you to only expanding into areas that are already strong RL areas. With the best will in the world the NRL doesn't have a strong enough national profile to have non RL heartlands beating down its door with $20million in the bank and a 20,000 supporter base from day one. That takes the NRL to invest and support RL in non heartland areas and I see no evidence of that happening.
Auckland anyone?
Unlike AFL, the NRL has, arguably, ready made supporter bases of well over 20 000 in 3 areas: Central Coast, Brisbane and Sunshine Coast. This is WITHOUT going into non heartland areas.
League recently had a world cup. In comparison, AFL can offer a 3 state bodgey comp.
One thing you can't knock the AFL for is their succesful expansion from the old VFL. Regardless of what you think of the Swans or Lions we would kill to have been able to expand into Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth as succesfully as they have into our heartlands. If they are targeting West Sydney and GC you can guarantee it is for good reason and will be one of the cards played when it comes to their hoped for $1billion next TV deal.
Personally I would rather know the NRL had a grand plan for where it wants to be in 5,10 and 20 years rather than hanging around hoping someone comes along with a strong bid.
The ARL had expansion twice the size of the old VFL expansion. Even after decimation, the NRL reaches more areas of the country than AFL does.
Consider this. The AFL and NRL face off in only 3 cities. That aside, AFL is only in 2 other locations. NRL is in 6. Net eyar, there will not be an AFL market without an NRL presence. There will still be 5 NRL markets that AFL will never ever get into: Canberra, Wollongong, Newcastle, North Queensland and NZ.
The NRL has 5 new markets beating down the door to get in: Perth, Central Coast, SEQ, PNG and Fiji. There is no market beating on AFL's door pleading for inclusion. In fact, teh AFL is beating on the doors of NRL territory, hgoping desperately someone will listen. Apart from the council, no one on the Gold Coast can remember what AFL is after hearing the word "Titans". And Western Sydney - their attempt is like trying to set up a mosque in Tel Aviv, or flogging thermal underwear in Darwin.