I think the scenario is the same for all bid areas, 90% of the first time members will be historic fans of other NRL clubs. Some will go on to be dedicated members of the new bid as a second choice because they live away form their historic team. Over time they may switch to the new bid as their first choice or at the least their kids will. In this respect all bids are the same. The question then becomes where does the NRL want to expand to and why? Whewre has most potential both to grow the game, add value to the game, increase supporters, viewers, jnrs, add value to sponsors etc etc.
All bids have a validity, it's a tough choice for the ARLC to decide where long term adds the most. At the moment it is a mute point as they seem happy to shirk a decision for some years to come.
Some would say spending an extra $5mill of RL money on Melbourne is a waste and yet if you took away the Melbourne viewing figures from the GF what would the total look like against AFL?