Broncos chances in 2016

[DiegoNT]

Can't help but notice that almost every commentator and the majority of people on LU not only have the broncos as their premierships favourites in 2016 but also have them as minor premiers favourites as well. To make things more bizarre the team that beat them for the 2015 premiership, the Cowboys, go into 2016 with exactly the same roster (unprecedented in the nrl era). While it may seem a no brainer that the runner-up in the grand final will be amongst the favourites the next year, history shows its not always easy going one better the next year.
In the 18 seasons of the nrl, only on 3 occasions have the last year's runners up gone on to win the grandfinal*. (07 storm, 08 Eagles, 09 storm).
In 18 years only 4 runners up have gone on to play in the next year's grand final* (04 roosters, 07 storm, 08 Eagles, 09 storm)
In 18 years the runners up have managed to make the next year's top 4 only 5 times* (04 roosters, 07 storm, 08 eagle, 09 storm 14 eagles)
In 18 years the runner ups have failed to even qualify for the finals 6 times ( 00 dragons, 05 roosters, 06 Cowboys, 10 eels, 11 roosters, 12 Warriors)

But its not just statistics that can cause for concern.
One of the biggest reasons for broncos 2015 success was their younger players (especially hunt and milford) exploding onto the scene and that should assure future success, but it won't be the first time young and exciting players have promised much for the future. It's quite often that young players can't create the dynasties that the media and fans expect them to. Think of the eels young batch in 2001, roosters in the wake of their 2002 success, the 03 panthers were expected to have ongoing success, both the young tigers side and Thurston/Bowens Cowboys of 05 side were expected to be a force for years to come, Haynes 09 eels and Johnsons 11 warriors were on the up but neither have featured in the finals since, bulldogs went into 2013 with the most exciting player at the time in fine form and souths were expected to be a force in 2015 and keary and Reynolds would push for origin selection.
They also have to find a new captain. Hodges was a great leader for a young team, competitive, would do anything to win and a no backward steps, do or die approach to leading. The worst thing that could happen is the team to go back to a thaiday leadership that was a disaster, while hunt will take time to adjust. And just Hodges playing ability will be missed. He was a creative player who could spark things when needed, james roberts is a talented player but will need opportunities to be created for him as opposed to Hodges who created them for himself.
Another thing that goes unmentioned for the Broncos in 2015 was their luck with injuries. Apart from boyd starting the year injured and maguire missing the 2nd half of the season with injury they were pretty lucky. They managed to keep their key players (halves and hookers) together for a remarkable amount of games.
The underrated side of the broncos in 2015 were their forwards. For years they had been dominated in the forwards but Bennett was able to turn that around. Parker is getting on now and while he has been a great servant for so long with the broncos, older forwards (especially ball playing forwards) have the tendency to lose form very quickly and hang on for 1 year too long. It'd be a shame if that happened to parker, the guy who was putting in a hundred percent effort in the broncos dark days. Blair and thaiday had decent years, but both players have been plagued by inconsistentsy and complacent form at club level over the years, and now that both have their contracts sorted and aren't playing for their futures anymore their is a danger that could happen again.
So while it may seem a no brainer that broncos will be a Force in 2016 i thought I'd give people something to consider before the start of the new year

*includes the illegal storm teams of 07 and 09

 

[I Bleed Maroon]

3/4's of a squad isn't about to just suddenly play shithouse because statistics are against them. Plus the nature of the loss of the GF will feed a hunger that will be hard to compete with.

Even take away the psychology of it, take a step back and look at the playing group and tell me how you think they will do.

 

[DiegoNT]

3/4's of a squad isn't about to just suddenly play shithouse because statistics are against them. Plus the nature of the loss of the GF will feed a hunger that will be hard to compete with.

I bet every runner-ups over the last 18 seasons have gone into the new season with that attitude/mindset, yet only 1 legal team has gone one better in the 18 seasons of the nrl.

 

[roostersrule2]

3/4's of a squad isn't about to just suddenly play shithouse because statistics are against them. Plus the nature of the loss of the GF will feed a hunger that will be hard to compete with.

Even take away the psychology of it, take a step back and look at the playing group and tell me how you think they will do.

Even though we won in 2013 our 2014 side was better then your 2016 one and that didn't help us.

A lot of it really is psychological.

 

[I Bleed Maroon]

I bet every runner-ups over the last 18 seasons have gone into the new season with that attitude/mindset, yet only 1 legal team has gone one better in the 18 seasons of the nrl.

Yet the last time a team went back to back in the NRL, Wayne Bennett was the coach of the Broncos. Please tell me you aren't underselling him again. In 2015 he had something to prove after his failed tenure at Newcastle. He got within 5 seconds of proving it and failed.

A motivated Bennett is a dangerous force on its own. Now give him that squad. Milford and Hunt in the halves, Roberts and Boyd roving around the back, led by a underrated pack.

 

[Iafeta]

When was that though - the 90s? That doesn't seem overly relevant. For whatever reason, there is a mental block on teams getting themselves back up to get to the Grand Final.

 

[I Bleed Maroon]

When was that though - the 90s? That doesn't seem overly relevant. For whatever reason, there is a mental block on teams getting themselves back up to get to the Grand Final.

There was a mental block on most of the competition in the form of a dominant St. George even further back than that, when they won something like 9 premierships in a row. The NRL is always evolving. Bennett's Dragons bombed out in 2009 then went on to win in 2010. That is recent history.

Does the fact that it wasn't a GF they bombed out in really matter? I guess that's a matter of opinion more than anything. Plus the matter of the Cap cheating Storm and their impact on the outcome of the comp really can't be ignored, as sad as that is.

 

[Vic Mackey]

The whole comp is set up for the Broncos to do well. Every year they don't make the top 4 as an absolute minimum is an abysmal failure. They should win the comp and win it well.

 

[TheDalek079]

Can't help but notice that almost every commentator and the majority of people on LU not only have the broncos as their premierships favourites in 2016 but also have them as minor premiers favourites as well. To make things more bizarre the team that beat them for the 2015 premiership, the Cowboys, go into 2016 with exactly the same roster (unprecedented in the nrl era). While it may seem a no brainer that the runner-up in the grand final will be amongst the favourites the next year, history shows its not always easy going one better the next year.
In the 18 seasons of the nrl, only on 3 occasions have the last year's runners up gone on to win the grandfinal*. (07 storm, 08 Eagles, 09 storm).
In 18 years only 4 runners up have gone on to play in the next year's grand final* (04 roosters, 07 storm, 08 Eagles, 09 storm)
In 18 years the runners up have managed to make the next year's top 4 only 5 times* (04 roosters, 07 storm, 08 eagle, 09 storm 14 eagles)
In 18 years the runner ups have failed to even qualify for the finals 6 times ( 00 dragons, 05 roosters, 06 Cowboys, 10 eels, 11 roosters, 12 Warriors)

But its not just statistics that can cause for concern.
One of the biggest reasons for broncos 2015 success was their younger players (especially hunt and milford) exploding onto the scene and that should assure future success, but it won't be the first time young and exciting players have promised much for the future. It's quite often that young players can't create the dynasties that the media and fans expect them to. Think of the eels young batch in 2001, roosters in the wake of their 2002 success, the 03 panthers were expected to have ongoing success, both the young tigers side and Thurston/Bowens Cowboys of 05 side were expected to be a force for years to come, Haynes 09 eels and Johnsons 11 warriors were on the up but neither have featured in the finals since, bulldogs went into 2013 with the most exciting player at the time in fine form and souths were expected to be a force in 2015 and keary and Reynolds would push for origin selection.
They also have to find a new captain. Hodges was a great leader for a young team, competitive, would do anything to win and a no backward steps, do or die approach to leading. The worst thing that could happen is the team to go back to a thaiday leadership that was a disaster, while hunt will take time to adjust. And just Hodges playing ability will be missed. He was a creative player who could spark things when needed, james roberts is a talented player but will need opportunities to be created for him as opposed to Hodges who created them for himself.
Another thing that goes unmentioned for the Broncos in 2015 was their luck with injuries. Apart from boyd starting the year injured and maguire missing the 2nd half of the season with injury they were pretty lucky. They managed to keep their key players (halves and hookers) together for a remarkable amount of games.
The underrated side of the broncos in 2015 were their forwards. For years they had been dominated in the forwards but Bennett was able to turn that around. Parker is getting on now and while he has been a great servant for so long with the broncos, older forwards (especially ball playing forwards) have the tendency to lose form very quickly and hang on for 1 year too long. It'd be a shame if that happened to parker, the guy who was putting in a hundred percent effort in the broncos dark days. Blair and thaiday had decent years, but both players have been plagued by inconsistentsy and complacent form at club level over the years, and now that both have their contracts sorted and aren't playing for their futures anymore their is a danger that could happen again.
So while it may seem a no brainer that broncos will be a Force in 2016 i thought I'd give people something to consider before the start of the new year

*includes the illegal storm teams of 07 and 09

so you're suggesting that the Broncos are going to lose the war

 

[DiegoNT]

The last time a team went back-to-back was when we had teams like the seagulls, bears Magpies and steelers around and most players had day jobs

 

[Iafeta]

There was a mental block on most of the competition in the form of a dominant St. George even further back than that, when they won something like 9 premierships in a row. The NRL is always evolving. Bennett's Dragons bombed out in 2009 then went on to win in 2010. That is recent history.

St George Illawarra didn't play the 2009 Grand Final.

You know you're hitching up to a dead horse when you're citing the 1960's as as reference point to modern day sports.

 

[GoTheBroncs]

I bet every runner-ups over the last 18 seasons have gone into the new season with that attitude/mindset, yet only 1 legal team has gone one better in the 18 seasons of the nrl.

With so many teams in the comp you'll need more than 18 years to obtain something statistically significant....

1/16 = 6.25%. That's the chance that some team will win the premiership if all sides have the same ability.

So let's say then that the Broncos have say a 15-20% chance of winning it. That's still small but still bigger than anyone else's chances. People are asked who is the most likely, and to me it's not surprising that most are saying the Broncos. They are not saying they are definitely going to win it, just more likely than any other team.

If the question changed from who are the favourites? to will the Broncos or some other team win it? Then most people will say the latter, because the Broncos are still less than a 50/50 chance of winning it.

Most players in the Broncos should improve from 2015 and also Roberts coming in for Hodges is actually an upgrade given that Hodges was slowing down. This is the first time in quite some time that I believe the Broncos should be favourites. But a lot of things need to go right to win a premiership.

 

[blaza88z]

it will come down to injuries, if we have luck with injuries we'll go well

let's not forget we lost a representative front rower and still were able to get to the dance

 

[beave]

Yet the last time a team went back to back in the NRL, Wayne Bennett was the coach of the Broncos. Please tell me you aren't underselling him again. In 2015 he had something to prove after his failed tenure at Newcastle. He got within 5 seconds of proving it and failed.

A motivated Bennett is a dangerous force on its own. Now give him that squad. Milford and Hunt in the halves, Roberts and Boyd roving around the back, led by a underrated pack.

1992/1993 era is a long cry from 2016. The squads Bennett had in that era should have bloody well gone back to back. The salary cap was not policed anywhere near with the apparent scrutiny as it is now. Bennett did well in 2015, but guess what, 5 seconds, 5 games, whatever, he didn't win the comp.

I have no doubt there will be a curve ball of massive proportions this season as to whom will be in the GF. I also have high doubtd my team can back it up. But they've been given a good opportunity by having a stable roster and no one of significance leaving.

But hey, you won the war apparently.

 

[Big Salad]

It is certainly a worry that last year we were 5 seconds away from a premiership and now face a prospect that we may not get as ideal a chance as that again for a few years. You need a lot of luck with injuries etc so whether the Broncos get this again in 2016 remains to be seen, as does the impact of not having Hodges there.

 

[Ibleedblue]

Broncos 2015 = love us or fear us

 

[Tommy Smith]

I echo the sentiments regarding injuries. If your only loss is a prop, albeit an Orign standard one, midway through the year then you're doing very well on the injury front.

I don't think many people would argue that the Roosters were Premiership favourites heading into the final month of the season. Then in the space of 5 minutes we lost the NRLs form forward and our halfback and organiser. I knew our Premiership chances had gone at that point.

Contrast that with the Cowboys who had a dream run with injuries and its clear that in a fairly even competition where it will be hard to split the top 4 sides, injuries will decide the title. Had Morgan's ankle injury been worse then the Broncos win the Premiership. That's an iron clad fact.

Likewise if the Broncos lose Parker and Hunt a month from the finals, similar to the Roosters plight in 2015, then they're done as well.

So yes, although they're shaping up as a better team in 2016 it may well be the case that 2015 was their best chance.

 

[no name]

There was a mental block on most of the competition in the form of a dominant St. George even further back than that, when they won something like 9 premierships in a row.

You really are a doyen of Rugby League knowledge.

 

[Didgi]

There's a 50/50 chance of the Broncos winning.

Either they will or they won't.

 

[Big Pete]

Well, that was a long round-a-bout way to suggest that success cannot be guaranteed in the NRL.

No kidding.

It may take longer for the Broncos to avenge 2015, but there's plenty to like about their squad and they have as good a chance as any. At this time of the year, it's all you want as a fan.