It wipes out about 3 percent of people who get it.
Do the sums and unless it’s controlled, it’s going to finish off 230 million of the worlds population.
I predict most of these people will be taken out in countries with bad health services. Africa is looking very dangerous and parts of the sub- continent and Asia.
In terms of effect on the world economy, If anyone’s interested, in perspective, it won’t wreck it because the virus will come and go.
And I think that should be a year or two.
Love to know where your numbers come from. Because 230,000,000 people is 3% of the earth's population.
The population of Wuhan is 11,000,000 people. Less than 3000 people, or under 0.002%, there died after 6 weeks of a virus being allowed to spread with absolutely no control.
Weirdly enough, as is the case with humans, things don't affect everyone the same way. Some people won't even know they have it. There's video of an old guy from the Princess diamond saying his entire symptoms with the virus over 2 weeks was just having a fever for 8 hours. Others have said they experienced no symptoms whatsoever and only found out because they were force tested. The idea that this will wipe out 3 out of every 100 people on earth is up there with theories of lizard people running the world. The facts don't match it at all.
But what's really weird is that you then downplay the economic effect. The projected costs are barely in the conception stage at present.
The cancellations of flights to countries haven't even started in places. Most cancelled events wouldn't have even taken place yet. Most holiday cancellations would just be beginning. Supply chains affected by China's factory slowdowns are only just starting to see safety stock run out.
Remember in Team America where they'd joke 'this is 9/11 times 100' 'that's over 91,000!'. This is the time to say that without sarcasm.
Remember the effect on airlines from closing the US to air traffic for a few days? Two major US airlines had to be saved from bankruptcy by the government just from that.
Now scale that out to the world and extend it from a few days to 1-2 months. Some airlines are already asking staff to take 6 months leave with no pay. And these will be only the first obvious effects to the economy we see.
Hotels, bars, restaurants and cafes worldwide will be devastated. Anyone who survives off hospitality, whether its as a guide for Chinese tourists or a concierge at a hotel chain in woop woop, is in for a horrible horrible time.
The stock market has already taken a beating in line with other record downturns, despite the collapse of businesses not even beginning yet. Wait until major companies start going belly up. Then the investment sector will be absolutely smashed.
The wealth of Australia is nearly completely linked in to the perceived value of properties. Perceived value! With most Australians employed on a casual basis with no security, when our unemployment figures begin matching Greeces numbers no one is going to be paying a million bucks for a fibro house in Granville. Half the wealth of this country can disappear overnight simply by people saying 'it's not worth it'. Under the right economic conditions, that day looks to be coming sooner than later now. And we aren't alone.
Take anyone who works at a stadium selling hot dogs to customers, does security at concerts, sells koala dolls to tourists, parks cars at the airport, cooks at a seafood restaurant, organizes traffic at events etc. Their industry is about to be absolutely smashed. Anyone working on construction of new facilities for hospitality will likely be out of work as projects are put on an indefinite hold to tighten budgets. The government will have far less money to invest in jobs for new infrastructure and this obsession with 'avoiding a deficit' already means spending was limited.
USA and other countries were just starting to come out of the GFC 10 years later.
This won't be a 1 or 2 year blip. This is more likely going to be a generational economic disaster that makes the great depression look like the Reagan era. Corona virus is bad, and I don't want to underplay it (though 230,000,000 deaths.... Nah). But compared to the economic effects coming, it'll look like a daydream.
