Dead Cat Bounce?

[macavity]

Was our run of decent form early this year the exception rather than the rule?

Our move from laughing stock in 07 to respectable in 08 to "dark horses" in early 09 was credited almost exclusively to Smith.

In reforming our team, Smith has cut the locals (fair enough) and imported a bunch of fringe players (probably justified given where we were).

It would seem juniors have been almost completely ignored in this revolution.

There is some great individual talent coming up in SG Ball and Harold Matthews - but they are 3-5 years off NRL, if they make it. Our NYC team is running what, 15th? There are some promising talents there too - but aside from Mata'utia, none look anywhere near FG ready - hell most of the better prospects have a few years of NYC left.

It would appear to me that Dogs 09 aside (who had the best recruitment of any team ever, facilitated by massively front-ending contracts to 08), success is generally built on developing talent - not picking up everyone else's castoffs.

We haven't focussed on developing talent. Instead we have bought in a whole heap of fringe FGers - who almost to a man are very reliant on Smith for their tactics, motivation, confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if he wipes their butts too.

The difference in focus and confidence since Smithy's "announcement" is stark.

He is gone in 6 weeks. The way we are playing, we might not win another game in that time.

What do we do then?

Can our rag tag bunch of rejects, misfits and overpaid fat blokes aim up without him?

It would seem they are shell shocked as is - and he is still here.

We haven't recruited even one player for next year. We will lose a few, including probably our best outside back (Doogs) and possibly Simmo too (looking very old).

Ostensibly we are banking on some big improvements in the squad we have. Without their guru, will they improve at all?

As an extension of this, is Rick Stone, the guy already here, the guy who says he is the right man for the job because he "believes in Smith's systems".... is he our guy?

Do Smith's systems work without Smith?

Hell, will this team work without him?

Because they seem to have shat themselves at the prospect of him not being here, let alone come the time he isn't here.

Unless we screw our heads back on, this season is gone, and unless we make some sound decisions, '10 might be a train wreck.

I don't know what that decision needs to be - do we need a change, or is this just a blip on an upward trajectory?

is the current downturn a blip, or was the previous promising form a dead cat bounce?

 

[roopy]

Injuries are what have finally done us in.
We covered for Cross, Tolar, Ciraldo, Vuna and Jimmy - but injuries to House, kurt, Jarrod, Scotty etc and we are basically stuffed for the minute.
A bit of luck from now on and we can still make the eight.

 

[Medievalknight]

A bit of luck from now on and we can still make the eight.

The only luck we seem to get Roops is bad..

 

[Bring it home Knights]

The forwards didn't get back and run onto the ball tonight! Apart from Wicks, they were hitting it up in 2nd gear and getting held down for AGES! It was pathetic! What was pato doing at prop? I dont get it! We need to get back to what was working earlier this year, that was running hard and having support play. Tonight resembled nothing of that!

 

[Hanscholo]

Nice post.

One of the things that I wanted to see out of having Smith here was a vastly improved jnr system, with those sides doing far better than they had in previous years. Better talent spotting and retention to me, should equal success. Perhaps long term the foundations for that have been laid, I really dont know, certainly thus far it seems as though its the same old mediocre jnr system. I have not been impressed with our jnr development since the late 90's. Perhaps we should look at getting someone like David Waite back in to oversee that part of the club. If he was good at anything it was bringing guys up to first grade and teaching them the game. Then again we are a bunch of cheap skates, so...I doubt it. It is one of the reason why I am annoyed Smith is going, I wanted to see him implement a vastly improved system for our jnrs before he left.

Personally I am appauled with the current situation, I dont want Smith to leave, I am gutted that seemingly three years of effort has been pissed away on a whim. The gross mismanagement of the club seems to be an ongoing ever repeating cycle, just when I think they have turned a corner they go and shoot themselves in the foot. They cant even pay a f**king bill for the stadium without it becoming a three ring circus requiring the government to step in.

I have deep reservations with going with the assistant coach. Its not Stone I am overly concerned about, I am concerned about the Club having a sh*t last part of the year because of the nonsense going on, and having that same sense around the place heading into next year. For mine, clear the coaches out and bring in some fresh ideas and a reset focus. That way we get the best out of Smith being here, and we get someone to build on that rather than stand still. There are a number of talented young coaches champing at the bit to get a hold of our side for next season, I suggest we make use of their enthusiasm...we really need to cut ties with the status quo and move on, clearly something is wrong in the dressing room.

The knights, if they are serious about Stone coaching should tell Smith to take the rest of the year off. Give stone the rest of the season, if he does well retain him, if he fails move him along. We are gaining NOTHING buy leaving Smith where he is right now...

 

[roopy]

We miss House more than we thought we would.
The school teacher is the natural leader of our pack.

 

[The_Joey_Show]

We miss House more than we thought we would.
The school teacher is the natural leader of our pack.

Yep. For the last two weeks we have been horrible at A and B defender, around the middle of the ruck. House locks up that area. The last two weeks have been testament to what an outstanding and important player he has become for our team.

That said, I am NOT making excuses. We were pathetic tonight. Pathetic. Every player that pulled on a red and blue jersey tonight, except Mad Dog, needs to seriouslt question their motives for being a first grade footballer.

 

[Karmawave]

Yep. For the last two weeks we have been horrible at A and B defender, around the middle of the ruck. House locks up that area. The last two weeks have been testament to what an outstanding and important player he has become for our team.

Playing Shannon McDonnell at fullback is the reason the defense is so fragile and uncertain. I understand Houston is important, but its not just poor defense in the A/B defender up the middle.

McDonnell does not have the same defensive line organisation and certainty that goes with having Gidley back there.

Its clearly affecting our defence by having McDonnell - who can't tackle himself - at fullback.

Last night, the Knights stopped leaking points as soon as Gidley went back to fullback, and that wasn't a case of the Roosters shutting up shop, because I was impressed with how the Roosters were still attacking with flair with 10 minutes to go ( chip kicks from their own half included ).

In the end the score last night flattered us.

Was our run of decent form early this year the exception rather than the rule?


Can our rag tag bunch of rejects, misfits and overpaid fat blokes aim up without him?


Ostensibly we are banking on some big improvements in the squad we have. Without their guru, will they improve at all?

As an extension of this, is Rick Stone, the guy already here, the guy who says he is the right man for the job because he "believes in Smith's systems".... is he our guy?

Do Smith's systems work without Smith?

Hell, will this team work without him?

Is the current downturn a blip, or was the previous promising form a dead cat bounce?

1. I think our run of form earlier in the year was the Knights overachieving their actual talent level.

2. No. I don't think guys like Naiqama, McDonnell ( if he is here ), Karawana, Wicks will aim up without Smith. Especially when there's been more than one occasion that a few of these blokes haven't aimed up with him still here.

3. I'm not sure there are improvements in our squad. I see regression. I see improvements in possibly Uate ( he'd need to ), I see Mullen potentially going to the next level. Realistically, Taia can't play any better than he currently is. De Gois has already been playing out of his skin. Simpson can only go backwards. Doogs is defying his age - but for how much longer? Cross is old. Tolar is average anyway. I mean who realistically can improve all that much more other than Uate? We have overachieved in 2009 - simple as that.

4. Not sure if Rick Stone can handle the team well - not sure any coach can. On ability, junior strength and overall player talent, the Newcastle Knights in 2010 would be in the bottom 4 teams based on talent alone. Lets face it - we are now, and Smith has ( wait, HAD ) us playing well.

5. I don't think Smiths systems work without Smith, because I don't think Smiths systems work with Smith.

6. Its nothing working with him. It would need a massive overhaul, and a huge turnaround of our juniors for it to work at the level we all hope anytime soon.

7. So what if we make the 8 this year now? It would need a huge turnaround to even make us nothing than a warm up game in round 1. Can we? Possibly. Will we? Probably not.

 

[The_Joey_Show]

Yep, your point about fullback is well taken. Kurt can not play anywhere but 1. Not now, not ever.

 

[antonius]

You've pretty much put into words what I have been thinking Macca. I think we will be in trouble next season. The danger is that the fringe guys we have here now will revert to thier old form when Smith departs. Kidley is going to have the world on his shoulders IMO, he is really the only quality player in this club at the moment. That includes Mullen who IMO has not lived up to anywhere near his publicity. The loss of premier league has not helped our cause either, good idea for the locals farming players out, but I guarantee the players would rather play in a premier league comp, and it would be better experience for them as well (tougher competition)

Back on your post though Macca, I share your fears, We need to recruit some players because if we rely on what we have now we will be back to where we started.
Not keen on Stone as coach either (but it looks like he's what we'll get)

 

[Newie is God's Country]

We need 2-3 rep players at this club on top of Kidley who is our only current state rep. Mateo is allegedly unhappy at the eels. So you would think we are at least talking to him? I doubt it cos that would mean vision and showing a backbone. Signing players should be as much our right as anyone elses. This bloke we signed as a recruitment officer is a former bulldog recruitment officer am I right? Look at their recruitment compared to ours. Instead we are left with a bunch of solid players who are freaking out that their coach has left them. Pay overs and take the risk with injuries if required. Depth is ok as long as it can do the job. Ours cannot. 5 losses from seven games. We are gone for 2009.

 

[macavity]

*bounce*

 

[Hanscholo]

Maca. I can see why you may think they way you do. But i have absolute faith in my own eyes and brain when it comes to football and I know what i saw, both this year and last year. A well discplined, hard working, hard running team playing with flair and patience. The last three weeks i have watched an unmotivated bucnch of guys that are waiting for the season to end. I nearly jumped out of my seat when i heard Gould carry on about us...as if you dont know phill....you f**ked us good didnt you mate.

I am not throwing out 2 years of evidence because we have thrown in the towel now. We were an oustanding side this season, we are no longer. Its Smith, the board and Burrastons fault, AND THE PLAYERS KNOW IT.