Different ways to look at premiership tallies

[juro]

Okay, we all know the premiership tally:

1. Souths - 20
2. St George - 15
3. Roosters - 13
4. Balmain - 11
5. Bulldogs - 8
5. Manly - 8
7. Brisbane - 6
8. Eels - 4
8. Magpies - 4
10. Raiders - 3
10. Newtown - 3
12. Melbourne - 2
12. Newcastle - 2
12. Norths - 2
12. Penrith - 2
16. St George Illawarra - 1
16. Wests Tigers - 1

But then you have the arguments. Souths haven't won since 1971, Brisbane have only been in the comp since 1988, there were only 8 teams in the early years, etc etc etc.

So if you assumed each team has an equal chance of winning the comp in any year they competed, how many premierships would you expect them to have won? And therefore, how many are punching above their weight?

(A = Actual, E = Expected, % = A/E)
1. Brisbane - 361% (A = 6, E = 1.66)
2. Souths - 202% (A = 20, E = 9.88)
3. St George - 201% (A = 15, E = 7.45)
4. Melbourne - 196% (A = 2, E = 1.02)
5. Manly - 156% (A = 8, E = 5.13)
6. Raiders - 142% (A = 3, E = 2.11)
7. Roosters - 130% (A = 13, E = 10.02)
8. Newcastle - 122% (A = 2, E = 1.64)
9. Balmain - 121% (A = 11, E = 9.11)
10. Bulldogs - 117% (A = 8, E = 6.82)
11. Wests Tigers - 109% (A = 1, E = 0.91)
12. St George Illawarra - 103% (A = 1, E = 0.97)
13. Eels - 75% (A = 4, E = 5.34)
14. Penrith - 60% (A = 2, E = 3.36)
15. Magpies - 44% (A = 4, E = 9.11)
16. Newtown - 37% (A = 3, E = 8.07)
17. Norths - 22% (A = 2, E = 9.11)

And, of course, there are the teams that have never won a premiership. Of the ones still existing:
1. Cronulla - E = 3.36
2. Cowboys - E = 1.22
2. Warriors - E = 1.22
4. Titans - E = 0.44

Of the ones now deceased:
1. Glebe - E = 2.60
2. University - E = 2.07
3. Annandale - E = 1.36
4. Illawarra - E = 1.12
5. Gold Coast - E = 0.67
and then the others who only lasted a couple years...

 

[Jason Maher]

*St. George = 16

 

[God-King Dean]

St.George Illawarra - 16 instant jimmy rustler

 

[gregstar]

In other news, a hedgehog.

 

[Bulldog Force]

*St. George = 16

St.George Illawarra - 16 instant jimmy rustler

:lol:

 

[juro]

Another way to look at it is to discount the premierships, so a grand final win this year is worth more than a win 10 years ago. This is a bit like saying, what good is a premiership 80 years ago if nobody is alive to have remembered it.

Applying an arbitrary discount rate of 2.5% (in line with expected CPI), with a 2013 premiership = 1, 2012 = 1/1.025 = 0.98, 2011 = 1/1.025^2 = 0.95, etc, the tally would look like:
1. Manly - 4.58
2. St George - 4.27
3. Brisbane - 4.14
4. Bulldogs - 3.74
5. Roosters - 3.69
6. Souths - 3.68
7. Eels - 1.91
8. Raiders - 1.75
9. Melbourne - 1.68
10. Balmain - 1.65
11. Newcastle - 1.42
12. Penrith - 1.36
13. St George Illawarra - 0.93
14. Wests Tigers - 0.82
15. Magpies - 0.69
16. Newtown - 0.39
17. Norths - 0.21

 

[juro]

But then you have the arguments.

 

[DB]

Steelers = 16

 

[gregstar]

I hate the viscosity of thick shakes that doesn't correlate to the aperture of the straw.

 

[WaznTheGreat]

Cronulla Sharks 0
Brisbane Sharks 0
Perth Sharks 0
Adelaide Sharks 0
Tasmania Sharks 0
PNG Sharks 0
Northern Territory Sharks 0

 

[juro]

I hate the viscosity of thick shakes that doesn't correlate to the aperture of the straw.

Thank you Billy Connolly

 

[MrAnonymous]

Applying an arbitrary discount rate of 2.5% (in line with expected CPI), with a 2013 premiership = 1, 2012 = 1/1.025 = 0.98, 2011 = 1/1.025^2 = 0.95, etc, the tally would look like:

Da f**k are you on about.

 

[gregstar]

Used without permission.

 

[magpie4ever]

So the Vietnam war gets a 25% discount, WWII - 50%, WW1 - 75% and the Boer war - 90%.

WTF, too much time on your hands.

 

[juro]

So the Vietnam war gets a 25% discount, WWII - 50%, WW1 - 75% and the Boer war - 90%.

WTF, too much time on your hands.

More like:
Vietnam War - 65%
WWII - 82%
WWI - 90%
Boer War - irrelevant since before the start of the comp!

 

[Saint Doc]

Grand Finals were only officially used to decide premiership wins from 1954. Before that it's a mish mash of minor premiers, sporadic grand finals, and challenge matches. LOL@souffs claiming minor premierships as premierships. Although I guess they did almost win their "premiership" in rd 26 last year. Almost.

Official Grand Final Winners Premiership Tally

Saints 14 (StG 13, STGI 1)
Manly 8
Brisbane 6
Canterbury 6
Souffs 6
Parramatta 4
Easts 4
Canberra 3
Newcastle 2
Melbourne 2*
Tigers 2 (balmain 1, WT 1)

 

[God-King Dean]

Saints 14 (StG 13, STGI 1)
Manly 8
Brisbane 6
Canterbury 6
Souffs 6
Parramatta 4
Easts 4
Canberra 3
Newcastle 2
Melbourne 2*
Tigers 2 (balmain 1, WT 1)

f**k yeah.

We're the best.

 

[magpie4ever]

Grand Finals were only officially used to decide premiership wins from 1954. Before that it's a mish mash of minor premiers, sporadic grand finals, and challenge matches. LOL@souffs claiming minor premierships as premierships. Although I guess they did almost win their "premiership" in rd 26 last year. Almost.

Official Grand Final Winners Premiership Tally

Saints 14 (StG 13, STGI 1)
Manly 8
Brisbane 6
Canterbury 6
Souffs 6
Parramatta 4
Easts 4
Canberra 3
Newcastle 2
Melbourne 2*
Tigers 2 (balmain 1, WT 1)

That is as f**ked up as the original post,

 

[Rooster Cogburn.]

You've got to laugh at the Illawarra socks fans who think their merged club has won 16 premierships. Sorry to tell you this boys but your merged club has one solitary premiership, it's all there in the official yearbook.

 

[Saint Doc]

That is as f**ked up as the original post,

That was the point. Do you need everything written down and explained for you?