Different ways to look at premiership tallies

[alien]

Yes. Eastern Suburbs lost all of their premierships when they became Sydney City Roosters.

nar its still the same club.

 

[alien]

who cares if there were only 8 teams in the early years? that doesnt make those premierships any less. if there are eventually 20 teams in the nrl, will those premierships be worth more than the ones won these days??? hell no!

 

[pHyR3]

why would you assume that??? that will never be the case, even with the salary cap. you could say that for most of the years broncos have existed, they have had the biggest chance of winning because they have the whole of brisbane to themselves (except for the years the crushers existed). it doesnt matter which clubs have been around longer. all that matters is the runs (premierships) on the board. those years that didnt have grandfinals, who ever finished on top of the league those seasons were the premiers, so i dont know how some people can say those premierships dont count, because they do.

if a new club came in tomorrow, and won 20 consecutive premierships.

who is the more successful club, these new guys or South Sydney??

obviously the new one.

we're not saying they dont count, we're just looking at it from another perspective. i.e. the 'premiership rate per year' rather than premierships outright.

 

[alien]

if a new club came in tomorrow, and won 20 consecutive premierships.

who is the more successful club, these new guys or South Sydney??

obviously the new one.

nope, because they would still have 1 less :lol:

 

[juro]

Is it rude to bump your own thread? Ah, who cares...

Updating my original post for 2015-21, the premiership tally is:

1. Souths - 21
2. St George - 15
2. Roosters - 15
4. Balmain - 11
5. Bulldogs - 8
5. Manly - 8
7. Brisbane - 6
8. Melbourne - 4
8. Eels - 4
8. Magpies - 4
11. Raiders - 3
11. Penrith - 3
11. Newtown - 3
14. Newcastle - 2
14. Norths - 2
16. St George Illawarra - 1
16. Wests Tigers - 1
16. Cronulla - 1
16. Cowboys - 1

But how can you compare team like Souths or the Roosters with over 100 seasons to teams like Brisbane or Melbourne with only a fraction of this? How do you compare years where there were only 8 teams competing with years where there were 16 or more?

So if you assumed each team has an equal chance of winning the comp in any year they competed, how many premierships would you expect them to have won? And therefore, how many are punching above their weight?

(A = Actual, E = Expected, % = A/E)
1. Brisbane - 278% (A = 6, E = 2.16)
2. Melbourne - 263% (A = 4, E = 1.52)
3. Souths - 202% (A = 21, E = 10.38)
4. St George - 201% (A = 15, E = 7.45)
5. Roosters - 143% (A = 15, E = 10.09)
6. Manly - 142% (A = 8, E = 5.63)
7. Raiders - 115% (A = 3, E = 2.61)
8. Balmain - 121% (A = 11, E = 9.11)
9. Bulldogs - 109% (A = 8, E = 7.32)
10. Newcastle - 93% (A = 2, E = 2.14)
11. Penrith - 78% (A = 3, E = 3.86)
12. Wests Tigers - 71% (A = 1, E = 1.41)
13. Eels - 68% (A = 4, E = 5.84)
14. St George Illawarra - 68% (A = 1, E = 1.47)
15. Cowboys - 58% (A = 1, E = 1.72)
16. Magpies - 44% (A = 4, E = 9.11)
17. Newtown - 37% (A = 3, E = 8.07)
18. Cronulla - 26% (A = 1, E = 3.86)
19. Norths - 22% (A = 2, E = 9.11)

And, of course, there are the teams that have never won a premiership. Of the ones still existing:
1. Warriors - E = 1.72
2. Titans - E = 0.94

Of the ones now deceased:
1. Glebe - E = 2.60
2. University - E = 2.07
3. Annandale - E = 1.36
4. Illawarra - E = 1.12
5. Gold Coast - E = 0.67
and then the others who only lasted a couple years...

Here is a chart of the movement in the A/E ratio over the years:



Gleaning from the chart:

• Souths got off to a flying start, winning the first 2 premierships in years with 9 and 8 teams competing. Since then, the lowest ratio they have ever reached was 196% in 1924. The last time they were at their current ratio of 202% was in 1924. Souths have been ranked 1st in 73 seasons. Their worst rank was 5th, in 2001. The last time they were 1st was in 1989.
• Brisbane are currently ranked 1st in ratio, on 278%. However, this is their lowest ratio since winning their first premiership in 1992. They have been ranked 1st in 23 seasons of their 28 seasons.
• Melbourne have had the highest ratio, 919% in 1999. If Melbourne had won this year, they would have been ranked 1st in ratio.
• St George's ratio will not change from 201% ever again (assuming they don't re-enter the competition). They have been ranked 1st in 2 seasons (1966 and 1967).
• The Roosters have only ever been in front of Souths in 1913. They have been equal in 7 seasons up to 1924.
• Canberra have been ranked 1st in 2 seasons (1990 and 1991).
• Balmain have been ranked 1st in 9 seasons up to 1926.
• Penrith now have their highest ratio, at 78%. Their previous best was 73% after winning in 2003.

 

[GongPanther]

No they weren't

They were in trouble. They went to Easts with cap in hand.

 

[GongPanther]

They had to merge because they couldn't afford to compete as a single entity, they were given a huge grant for merging. They went cap in hand to the Roosters but that would've been a takeover by the Roosters not a merger and the Saints fans kicked up a huge stink.

I didn't read this when I posted.

 

[some11]

 

[GongPanther]

Updating my original post for 2014, the premiership tally is:

1. Souths - 21
2. St George - 15
3. Roosters - 13
4. Balmain - 11
5. Bulldogs - 8
5. Manly - 8
7. Brisbane - 6
8. Eels - 4
8. Magpies - 4
10. Raiders - 3
10. Newtown - 3
12. Melbourne - 2
12. Newcastle - 2
12. Norths - 2
12. Penrith - 2
16. St George Illawarra - 1
16. Wests Tigers - 1

But how can you compare team like Souths or the Roosters with over 100 seasons to teams like Brisbane or Melbourne with only a fraction of this? How do you compare years where there were only 8 teams competing with years where there were 16 or more?

So if you assumed each team has an equal chance of winning the comp in any year they competed, how many premierships would you expect them to have won? And therefore, how many are punching above their weight?

(A = Actual, E = Expected, % = A/E)
1. Brisbane - 348% (A = 6, E = 1.72)
2. Souths - 211% (A = 21, E = 9.94)
3. St George - 201% (A = 15, E = 7.45)
4. Melbourne - 184% (A = 2, E = 1.09)
5. Manly - 154% (A = 8, E = 5.20)
6. Raiders - 138% (A = 3, E = 2.17)
7. Roosters - 129% (A = 13, E = 10.09)
8. Balmain - 121% (A = 11, E = 9.11)
9. Newcastle - 117% (A = 2, E = 1.71)
10. Bulldogs - 116% (A = 8, E = 6.88)
11. Wests Tigers - 102% (A = 1, E = 0.98)
12. St George Illawarra - 97% (A = 1, E = 1.04)
13. Eels - 74% (A = 4, E = 5.41)
14. Penrith - 58% (A = 2, E = 3.42)
15. Magpies - 44% (A = 4, E = 9.11)
16. Newtown - 37% (A = 3, E = 8.07)
17. Norths - 22% (A = 2, E = 9.11)

And, of course, there are the teams that have never won a premiership. Of the ones still existing:
1. Cronulla - E = 3.42
2. Cowboys - E = 1.29
2. Warriors - E = 1.29
4. Titans - E = 0.50

Of the ones now deceased:
1. Glebe - E = 2.60
2. University - E = 2.07
3. Annandale - E = 1.36
4. Illawarra - E = 1.12
5. Gold Coast - E = 0.67
and then the others who only lasted a couple years...

Here is a chart of the movement in the A/E ratio over the years:

Gleaning from the chart:

• Souths got off to a flying start, winning the first 2 premierships in years with 9 and 8 teams competing. Since then, the lowest ratio they have ever reached was 196% in 1924. The last time they were at their current ratio of 211% was in 2006. Souths have been ranked 1st in 73 seasons. Their worst rank was 5th, in 2001. The last time they were 1st was in 1989.
• Brisbane are currently ranked 1st in ratio, on 348%. However, this is their lowest ratio since winning their first premiership in 1992. They have been ranked 1st in 23 seasons of their 28 seasons.
• Melbourne have had the highest ratio, 919% in 1999. If Melbourne had not had their 2 premierships stripped, they would be in 1st place on 369%.
• St George's ratio will not change from 201% ever again (assuming they don't re-enter the competition). They have been ranked 1st in 2 seasons (1966 and 1967).
• The Roosters have only ever been in front of Souths in 1913. They have been equal in 7 seasons up to 1924.
• Canberra have been ranked 1st in 2 seasons (1990 and 1991).
• Balmain have been ranked 1st in 9 seasons up to 1926.

Penrith 3 premierships.

 

[juro]

Penrith 3 premierships.

Oops, thanks for the pick up. Percentage was correct though.

 

[Perth Red]

So are we going to credit "The" Dolphins with Redcliffes BRL/Qlnd cup premierships? Seems only fair if we are counting NSWRL club premierships in the tallies. Their 10 premierships moves them to 5th on the table.

 

[hineyrulz]

Those stats suggest to me Parra are even balder than they were in 2014.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Another interesting point... and yes, I understand the arguments against this, but since NSWRL premierships are included, why not BRL Premierships for Redcliffe? Not the ones from when the QRL was clearly part of the second teir from 1988 onwards, but the ones from before that when it was a top tier comp alongside the Sydney comp. They won the 1965 premiership with a number of test players in their team and would have probably beaten any of the NSWRL sides (although there wasn't a superbowl game to prove it).

 

[titoelcolombiano]

So are we going to credit "The" Dolphins with Redcliffes BRL/Qlnd cup premierships? Seems only fair if we are counting NSWRL club premierships in the tallies. Their 10 premierships moves them to 5th on the table.

If NSWRL premierships count, then the BRL ones should, but only the ones from pre-1988 when it was a genuine top tier comp alongside the NSWRL.

 

[Dogs Of War]

Here is my problem with this. We have also had many years with 8 team comps, 10 team comps etc. Your likelihood of winning in those years is greatly enhanced due to the number of teams in the comp. It's not really a good comparison of the actual likelihood of winning. Makes Melbournes winning run much more impressive.

So the weightings of premierships should reflect that. 8 team comp 12.5% chance of winning. 16 team comp 6.25% chance of winning. A lot more work to work it out. But that's the reality of it.

 

[SBD82]

So are we going to credit "The" Dolphins with Redcliffes BRL/Qlnd cup premierships? Seems only fair if we are counting NSWRL club premierships in the tallies. Their 10 premierships moves them to 5th on the table.

No. It was never a top tier comp.

No amount of revisionist history will change that.

 

[firechild]

So are we going to credit "The" Dolphins with Redcliffes BRL/Qlnd cup premierships? Seems only fair if we are counting NSWRL club premierships in the tallies. Their 10 premierships moves them to 5th on the table.

No. Teams joined the NSWRL comp which eventually changed its name to the ARL and then NRL (in combination with Sewer League). The BRL was always a separate competition. Also, the management of "The" have made it clear that they are not the Redcliffe Dolphins who will remain in the BRL.

 

[Babyface O'reilly]

Here is my problem with this. We have also had many years with 8 team comps, 10 team comps etc. Your likelihood of winning in those years is greatly enhanced due to the number of teams in the comp. It's not really a good comparison of the actual likelihood of winning. Makes Melbournes winning run much more impressive.

So the weightings of premierships should reflect that. 8 team comp 12.5% chance of winning. 16 team comp 6.25% chance of winning. A lot more work to work it out. But that's the reality of it.

What were a club’s chances of winning when they were bankrolled by News Ltd?

 

[Dogs Of War]

What were a club’s chances of winning when they were bankrolled by News Ltd?

Pretty high given the survival rate of Super League clubs vs ARL clubs. Have to be alive to be able to win more.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

No. It was never a top tier comp.

No amount of revisionist history will change that.

Mate, I'm afraid it was even if you don't think so. The example of the Redcliffe team I gave was probably the best in the country that year. The BRL was a first grade RL competition as the NSWRL was at the same time. There was no higher level.

That only changed in 1995 when the ARL became the top flight comp and the NSWRL and the QRL competitions were second teir (maybe third behind reserve grade).