Updating my original post for 2014, the premiership tally is:
1. Souths - 21
2. St George - 15
3. Roosters - 13
4. Balmain - 11
5. Bulldogs - 8
5. Manly - 8
7. Brisbane - 6
8. Eels - 4
8. Magpies - 4
10. Raiders - 3
10. Newtown - 3
12. Melbourne - 2
12. Newcastle - 2
12. Norths - 2
12. Penrith - 2
16. St George Illawarra - 1
16. Wests Tigers - 1
But how can you compare team like Souths or the Roosters with over 100 seasons to teams like Brisbane or Melbourne with only a fraction of this? How do you compare years where there were only 8 teams competing with years where there were 16 or more?
So if you assumed each team has an equal chance of
winning
the comp in any year they competed, how many premierships would you expect them to have won? And therefore, how many are punching above their weight?
(A = Actual, E = Expected, % = A/E)
1. Brisbane - 348% (A = 6, E = 1.72)
2. Souths - 211% (A = 21, E = 9.94)
3. St George - 201% (A = 15, E = 7.45)
4. Melbourne - 184% (A = 2, E = 1.09)
5. Manly - 154% (A = 8, E = 5.20)
6. Raiders - 138% (A = 3, E = 2.17)
7. Roosters - 129% (A = 13, E = 10.09)
8. Balmain - 121% (A = 11, E = 9.11)
9. Newcastle - 117% (A = 2, E = 1.71)
10. Bulldogs - 116% (A = 8, E = 6.88)
11. Wests Tigers - 102% (A = 1, E = 0.98)
12. St George Illawarra - 97% (A = 1, E = 1.04)
13. Eels - 74% (A = 4, E = 5.41)
14. Penrith - 58% (A = 2, E = 3.42)
15. Magpies - 44% (A = 4, E = 9.11)
16. Newtown - 37% (A = 3, E = 8.07)
17. Norths - 22% (A = 2, E = 9.11)
And, of course, there are the teams that have never won a premiership. Of the ones still existing:
1. Cronulla - E = 3.42
2. Cowboys - E = 1.29
2. Warriors - E = 1.29
4. Titans - E = 0.50
Of the ones now deceased:
1. Glebe - E = 2.60
2. University - E = 2.07
3. Annandale - E = 1.36
4. Illawarra - E = 1.12
5. Gold Coast - E = 0.67
and then the others who only lasted a couple years...
Here is a chart of the movement in the A/E ratio over the years:
Gleaning from the chart:
- Souths got off to a flying start, winning the first 2 premierships in years with 9 and 8 teams competing. Since then, the lowest ratio they have ever reached was 196% in 1924. The last time they were at their current ratio of 211% was in 2006. Souths have been ranked 1st in 73 seasons. Their worst rank was 5th, in 2001. The last time they were 1st was in 1989.
- Brisbane are currently ranked 1st in ratio, on 348%. However, this is their lowest ratio since winning their first premiership in 1992. They have been ranked 1st in 23 seasons of their 28 seasons.
- Melbourne have had the highest ratio, 919% in 1999. If Melbourne had not had their 2 premierships stripped, they would be in 1st place on 369%.
- St George's ratio will not change from 201% ever again (assuming they don't re-enter the competition). They have been ranked 1st in 2 seasons (1966 and 1967).
- The Roosters have only ever been in front of Souths in 1913. They have been equal in 7 seasons up to 1924.
- Canberra have been ranked 1st in 2 seasons (1990 and 1991).
- Balmain have been ranked 1st in 9 seasons up to 1926.
morally reprehensible. Seriously? I think you need to get out a bit more Baron Vo Wanker. :lol:
