Eels trial.

[Luke Bowden]

Rnd.1 can’t come quick enough.

 

[BossleyPanther]

Rnd.1 can’t come quick enough.

If it rains like it is, i would put May and Turuva to get us doing the hard yards. soagy pitch going to be hard to run around.

 

[The_Frog]

modelling based on what? You say we are a 15% chance of winning this season…. Where did you pull that figure from?

Sportsbet have us at $5.50, have had since the Grand Final. This did not change even after the trial result. This is the equivalent of 9/2 in the old fashioned odds, 2 chances in 11 or 18%. Parra are $13.00 which equates to 7%, despite a fair amount of talking up they are getting in the media.

These prices include a margin in favour of the "house" so the true chances as assessed by the gambling industry experts would be slightly lower (ie all the percentages added together would come to more than 100).

 

[Kilkenny]

Sportsbet have us at $5.50, have had since the Grand Final. This did not change even after the trial result. This is the equivalent of 9/2 in the old fashioned odds, 2 chances in 11 or 18%. Parra are $13.00 which equates to 7%, despite a fair amount of talking up they are getting in the media.

These prices include a margin in favour of the "house" so the true chances as assessed by the gambling industry experts would be slightly lower (ie all the percentages added together would come to more than 100).

$5-50 is way under. I think $7-00 to $7-50 is more realistic odds for our chances. I don’t think there would be too many serious or professional punters taking us at $5-50.

 

[The_Frog]

$5-50 is way under. I think $7-00 to $7-50 is more realistic odds for our chances. I don’t think there would be too many serious or professional punters taking us at $5-50.

Well these are the guys whose livelihood is at stake and that's what they've come up with. I've no idea how they calculate it, but I do know for us to be longer someone else would have to be shorter. Maybe Parra, but they've started well before folding for the last 2 years.

 

[Luke Bowden]

Well these are the guys whose livelihood is at stake and that's what they've come up with. I've no idea how they calculate it, but I do know for us to be longer someone else would have to be shorter. Maybe Parra, but they've started well before folding for the last 2 years.

It’s based on how much money is being placed on each team. It’s simply a financial decision made by the betting companies, it doesn’t really have much to do with our actual chances of winning.

 

[The_Frog]

It’s based on how much money is being placed on each team. It’s simply a financial decision made by the betting companies, it doesn’t really have much to do with our actual chances of winning.

The market opened the day after the GF, before a cent had been bet, and our price has not budged since. I do think its more complicated than just weight of money, which can affect odds.

 

[Original Name]

I would advise every Panther fan to a use a very valuable tool on this site. It will come in very handy this year. The ignore button.
It is quite clear every loss we will have, or dropped ball, or perceived favouritism will bring and avalanche of jealous losers. Desperate to vent their bile across.
Pop them on ignore and save yourself the time and hassle.

Hey I like interacting with some other fans. Too many of your fans is just an echo chamber. And if all you hear is an echo chamber it's not good.

 

[Luke Bowden]

The market opened the day after the GF, before a cent had been bet, and our price has not budged since. I do think its more complicated than just weight of money, which can affect odds.

Yeah they forecast based on previous betting markets, it’s a fine balance of juggling how much they lose vs enticing someone to bet.

They then adjust as the money comes in.

For example, now that Fogerty is out for the Raiders, no one will bet on them, which will drive their market up.

Realistically, Fogerty being out doesn’t effect their chances of winning the comp that greatly.

 

[Smug Panther]

Yeah they forecast based on previous betting markets, it’s a fine balance of juggling how much they lose vs enticing someone to bet.

They then adjust as the money comes in.

For example, now that Fogerty is out for the Raiders, no one will bet on them, which will drive their market up.

Realistically, Fogerty being out doesn’t effect their chances of winning the comp that greatly.

Pretty poor example in Canberra as anyone betting on them would be a sucker anyways but the rest is correct

 

[Luke Bowden]

Pretty poor example in Canberra as anyone betting on them would be a sucker anyways but the rest is correct

Yeah, Fogerty was just the injury that was at the front of my mind.

 

[hindy111]

$5-50 is way under. I think $7-00 to $7-50 is more realistic odds for our chances. I don’t think there would be too many serious or professional punters taking us at $5-50.

How many sides can win it do you feel?

I'd say 6.

Storm,Manly,Penrith,Souths,Rooster,Eels.

If itncome from outside that which is possible it would be a suprise season for them.

Sharks,Knights perhaps have some claims along with Canberra.

Of course there could be a huge suprise but I'd want 50-1 not the 20-1 that's offered.

Of the 6 I mentioned I don't feel there is much between any of them.


So if you put $100 on all those 6. You've outplayed $600. If storm won you only get $500 back. If Penrith won $550.
Any of the other 4 and you make a profit. Eels at 13s is quite good value. There some genuine chance you'd think.


Would you prefer the Dogs or Brisbane at 26-1? Even at 50-1 I wouldn't touch them.

 

[ColdWetPanther]

100% I do…and I don’t like him as a man.
The fact is though, we have f**k all experienced players in our squad who can mentor the up and comers. He is needed.

Fair enough; reasonable perspective.

 

[Kilkenny]

How many sides can win it do you feel?

I'd say 6.

Storm,Manly,Penrith,Souths,Rooster,Eels.

If itncome from outside that which is possible it would be a suprise season for them.

Sharks,Knights perhaps have some claims along with Canberra.

Of course there could be a huge suprise but I'd want 50-1 not the 20-1 that's offered.

Of the 6 I mentioned I don't feel there is much between any of them.


So if you put $100 on all those 6. You've outplayed $600. If storm won you only get $500 back. If Penrith won $550.
Any of the other 4 and you make a profit. Eels at 13s is quite good value. There some genuine chance you'd think.


Would you prefer the Dogs or Brisbane at 26-1? Even at 50-1 I wouldn't touch them.

I think this year could be one of the most open in a long time.

I can see lot’s of upsets and I think it will be six to eight rounds in before we see who the contenders for the top four, top 8 may be. Definitely less blow outs this season.

 

[Kilkenny]

From my perspective I’ll just focus on round 1 and see how we perform. It’s an old cliche but best to take things week at a time.

 

[BossleyPanther]

How many sides can win it do you feel?

I'd say 6.

Storm,Manly,Penrith,Souths,Rooster,Eels.

If itncome from outside that which is possible it would be a suprise season for them.

Sharks,Knights perhaps have some claims along with Canberra.

Of course there could be a huge suprise but I'd want 50-1 not the 20-1 that's offered.

Of the 6 I mentioned I don't feel there is much between any of them.


So if you put $100 on all those 6. You've outplayed $600. If storm won you only get $500 back. If Penrith won $550.
Any of the other 4 and you make a profit. Eels at 13s is quite good value. There some genuine chance you'd think.


Would you prefer the Dogs or Brisbane at 26-1? Even at 50-1 I wouldn't touch them.

Storm is a no. I have Parra, Manly, Roosters and sharks. Maybe us but going to be tough being the hunted.