Expansion could upset close competition

[El Diablo]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...lose-competition/story-e6frg7mf-1226110468615

Expansion could upset close competition

Brent Read
From: The Australian
August 08, 2011 12:00AM

AS the AFL works itself into a lather over the lopsided nature of its competition, statistics have emerged that suggest the NRL has never been closer to achieving the lofty goal of parity across its clubs.

Heading into last weekend, the average winning margin in the NRL was 13 points. That is the lowest figure since the NRL's inception in 1998 and adds gravitas to claims that the salary cap has levelled the playing field.

Given recent events in the AFL, it also serves as a warning to the NRL as it considers expanding the competition. A slew of one-sided AFL games this season prompted premiership-winning Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse to suggest at the weekend that a stream of blow-outs was the AFL's most serious issue.

The situation has been exacerbated by the thinning of talent created by the introduction of the Gold Coast this season. And AFL officials concede it is likely to continue next year when Greater Western Sydney kicks off.

The NRL could do worse than to look and learn, given the code is weighing up the prospects of adding teams in coming years.

While the seven bidding consortiums want entry in 2013, chief executive David Gallop has suggested a more realistic goal is 2014 or 2015. The final decision will be made by the independent commission, which will take over the running of the game from November 1. The most serious concern is that any new teams will dilute the talent pool, inevitably meaning the weaker clubs will be picked off.

"So many of our games are not decided until the last minute which is quite extraordinary for a competition like ours in world sport," Gallop said.

"It's a credit to the fitness of our players and the evenness of the competition. Certainly any consideration for adding teams would need to bear in mind the competitive balance of the competition."

In reference to the AFL giving concessions to expansion teams, which has allowed them to pick the eyes out of other sides, Gallop said: "When we added the Titans to the competition we were careful not to introduce concessions which would upset the competitive balance.

"Our philosophy thus far has been that if you come into the competition, you come in on the same terms as everyone else. But we certainly provide a level of support in other areas.

"I think you're buying a lot of problems if you start favouring some clubs over others in terms of the salary cap or the draft."

There are other considerations for the NRL beyond the even standard of the competition. The game is also fighting a war with the AFL in western Sydney and money needs to be channelled in that direction. Furthermore, many of the NRL's existing clubs are fighting to keep their heads above water.

"We have said for some time any new team would have to have a robust financial model and be bringing something to the table that everyone can benefit from," Gallop said. "Part of that is not upsetting the competitive balance of the competition."

The average winning margin in the NRL has been on a steady decline over the past four years. Since peaking at 17.3 points in 2002, it has consistently been below 15 points -- 2008 was the lone exception. Over the past two years, it has been below 14 points for the first time in NRL history. This year's dip comes despite the top eight being widely considered a foregone

 

[El Diablo]

Ten wouldn't make a big offer for rights either if expansion causes blowouts after reading this

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...lopsided-matches/story-e6frf9jf-1226110509757

TV boss warns viewers will not watch lopsided matches

Jon Ralph
From: Herald Sun
August 08, 2011 12:00AM

CHANNEL 10 head of sport David Barham says an 18-team competition with several lopsided encounters could have viewers switching off in their droves.

And Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse yesterday predicted dropping attendances and TV ratings if the trend of blowouts continued.

Ten broadcast two lopsided contests on Saturday, with Carlton smashing Melbourne, then Collingwood inflicting Port Adelaide's heaviest loss in its history.

Barham said the increasing number of blowouts was a serious issue for the AFL given that number is expected to rise with the introduction of Greater Western Sydney.

"I haven't seen the ratings for last night but it will be terrible (in the second half)," he said.

"I won't see them until (Monday) morning but there are a lot of blowouts and the next few years will be interesting. Throw in Greater Western Sydney with the Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Brisbane ... once the game is over, everyone turns off. No doubt."

Foxtel and Channel 7 have paid a record $1.25 billion for the TV rights, but as many as half of the games next year will feature potential blowouts or low-rating non-Victorian teams.

It means the huge money paid may be hard to recoup.

"You can go back through the ratings over the years and look at matches which are blowouts and they show you that audiences drop off immediately when the game is over (as a contest)," Barham said.

"You want close games and, to be honest with you, you can have games which are absolutely terrible like the St Kilda-Sydney game (several years ago) but they still rate because they are close. Great games which are close are the priority but if it's close it will rate because people want to know who wins."

Malthouse yesterday said one solution to the problem was addressing the fixture. He said allowing sides like Geelong to play GWS twice would lead to massacres.

"One of the things they are going to have to address if they are going to 18 sides is the draw," he said.

"It can't be nice and warm and fuzzy with Geelong playing Ablett (and the Gold Coast) twice. We have to restructure the draw to give young emerging sides a leg-up. (Soon) we will have a two-tier system and people will switch off their TVs and won't go to games.

"What it will do is lower the standard and we can't have that."

Malthouse told SEN there were simply not enough star players for 18 clubs.

"You can imagine a side with the maturity of Geelong playing GWS next year," he said.

"If they play them at Skilled Stadium, it will be a massacre."

 

[BuffaloRules]

I dont think the AFL gives a f**k now that the rights have been agreed...

With all the draft and salary cap help that the Suns and Giants will get over their first few years, they should be challenging for the "flag" just in time for the next rights deal...

Vlad sure is not stupid...

Expansion teams dont have the same hassle in NRL as the new teams simple start targeting NRL super stars at other clubs as soon as they are given the nod to join the comp...

 

[Noa]

We have much larger base to choose from

 

[nqcowboy87]

the afl doesnt have a bunch of ready made players in england, nor can it poach union players as easily as we can

 

[El Diablo]

I dont think the AFL gives a f**k now that the rights have been agreed...

With all the draft and salary cap help that the Suns and Giants will get over their first few years, they should be challenging for the "flag" just in time for the next rights deal...

Vlad sure is not stupid...

Expansion teams dont have the same hassle in NRL as the new teams simple start targeting NRL super stars at other clubs as soon as they are given the nod to join the comp...

they don''t but TV networks will see what could happen if RL did the same and therefore wouldn't be keen on throwing big money at dud games

 

[flamin]

Difference is the AFL needs to come up with another 100 or so players for two new teams. The NRL needs half as much and can call on stocks from Europe and union.


The AFL also like to give ridiculous concessions to expansion teams ensuring that comp will never be on a level playing field.


Expansion may cause some unevenness in the short term but shouldn't take us to long to gain the balance we currently have.

 

[BuffaloRules]

they don''t but TV networks will see what could happen if RL did the same and therefore wouldn't be keen on throwing big money at dud games

THE Storm won a comp after two years, and the Titans were more competitive when they came in than they are now.

As mentioned, it doesnt seem to be the same issue for NRL, although maybe they should not bring in two expansion teams at the same time.

 

[Phil McGrawhan]

Difference is the AFL needs to come up with another 100 or so players for two new teams. The NRL needs half as much and can call on stocks from Europe and union.

AFL only need 99 if they recall K from the Reggies.

 

[age.s]

How much would Geelong have beaten Melbourne by with Gary Abblett still playing for them?

Blaming the lobsided scorlines in the AFL on expansion is a deflection. Momentum in AFL is a huge thing, and clawing it back is near impossible against good teams. Blowouts are built into the nature of their sport. The talent is also thinner in their competition because they have larger squads, and only the south half of a sparsely populated country to draw players from. With NZ and UK providing players for the NRL that would likely be less of a problem for us.

 

[Billythekid]

We have far more areas to draw talent from and we need far less players per squad. We won't have the same problems as the AFL.

 

[otori]

The difference is that league teams should be able to poach players from union in France, Japan and England plus ESL players and possibly PNG players if possible. AFL's talent pool is the exact same until they build it deeper themselves. Poaching leaguies won't win games.

 

[Rockin Ronny]

You cannot question the ability of the NRL and league journalists to create absolute bullshit arguments when it comes to pushing an agenda.

the argument against expansion have been pathetic.

• Not enough players
• Bullshit demographics about people, places, things
• we need to protect dying clubs going bankrupt

Now - we should be wary of exapnsion because it might upset some perceived balance of results.

Fair dinkum - morons should not be allowed to manage or influence a business generating hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

[docbrown]

Indeed.

AFL can't steal players from other international fumbleball leagues - because they don't have any!

There's dozens, if not hundreds of players that don't have Super League or Union contracts that can make the transition, not to mention all the players of Australasian heritage in the UK.

If the TV money's there, if the salary cap is raised, then you can get them.

 

[joshreading]

I have suggested this before. I think the new NRL sides should be given a two sided salary cap for the first 4 years. Half would be unlimited with the proviso that half the total squad come from players signed come from outside of the NRL competition and Under 20's. This would allow them to open the wallet and attract high profile players and stable players from Union and Super League with little impact on the NRL competition.

Then they would have the other half of the squad that would have to come from the other half of the salary cap and could be signed from the NRL and Under 20's.

This would allow the best of both worlds in attracting some stars from Union and Super League whilst minimizing the impact on the NRL player pool

For instance

The WA Reds could sign (out of a squad of 25) 13 players from outside the NRL for whatever they wanted to pay them for 4 years. Being in Perth
such could enable them to target high profile Springboks, Union Players and Super League players.

After these 13 players they would have whatever half the salary cap is to sign the other 12 players. These players
could be signed from anywhere.

 

[Red Bear]

The difference is, with a compromised draft in the AFL, that the teams that are currently shit (Brisbane, Port, lesser extent Richmond and Adelaide) dont get the chance to rebuild at this point due to compromised draft, so they stay shit for longer, whilst the new clubs might have an abundance of talent but not much maturity in the bodies, and it's questionable as to how much damage getting belted week in week out plays on their development, hence the AFL is left with a big divide between the sides that have peaked at present and the ones in a rebuilding phase who qill struggle to rebuild without any good players.

We dont have a draft, players are able to move and be developed by their own clubs, hence this is less of a problem.

It's really a punishing success vs rewarding mediocrity system, but our comp is more likely to stay even than the draft system.

 

[Perth Red]

RL has some massive untapped talent pools that with a little money and strategy we could be developing to ensure the future of expansion for decades to come on both sides of the world:
PNG
Fiji
NZ
Wales
France
WA
NT

all could be producing alot more top talent if the investment was there.

When I see players like Josh Morris, Paul Aiton, etc running around in the NSW and Q'land cup, not to mention the number of talented players in Ru and SL, it seems to me that we have plenty of talent looking for 1st team opportunities. If Brisbane and WA do come in then we will see those areas developing more and more talent. I would love to see WA get some serious funding to develop jnr RL over the next 3-4 years whilst we are waiting for a team.

 

[westcorridor]

South East Queensland has over 12,000 registered youth and senior players. 12 out of the 15 players selected in Queensland's team of the century came from this region.

As said by others, there is a lot of opportunity to tap into more of rugby league's heartlands

 

[Jason Maher]

I wish Mick Malthouse had done his spray prior to the TV rights being finalised (and he's the sort of bloke who would do it). Would have been amusing to observe the coughing and spluttering from AFL HQ.

 

[Perth Red]

There are 1500 jnr RL players in WA. Pre the Force there were less RU jnr's. There are now over 3000 RU jnr's as the Force have had money from the ARU to develop the jnr game and the profile of having a S15 team has lifted RU dramatically in the past few years.

With our own team under the WARL and jnr investment we will see WA producing our own players in the not too distant future. That was the model of the original Reds and will be the model this time around. I look forward to the SOO bunfight as NSW and Q'land try to lay claim to WA players!