Favourite 'gamble' in the NRL

[newman]

Because with interchange players there is 17-a-side, therefore 34 players?

Yep. But it becomes a bit more complex because you could argue that most first tries are scored before any interchanged are made.

 

[Parra]

Yep. But it becomes a bit more complex because you could argue that most first tries are scored before any interchanged are made.

So for Superrugby with 22 players per side the odds could be 44/1 for each player?

 

[BDR]

Thanks for the life lesson chief. Even if I don't win I enjoy a casual punt, I don't think anyone is in denial about their probability of winning against huge odds. Like so much in life the punt is enjoyable in moderation. The sports book is my game of choice because there is actually an element of strategy (even if you think there isn't).

 

[Richard Gay Was God]

I like the Morris boys, Barba and Everingham as 1st try scorers as rule. Merritt as a last try scorer. I don't bet on it often, only if I'm near a TAB on a weekend. Got David Mead up on Friday night at $11 and Sio up on Saturday night. Generally right sided wingers are a good chance.

I missed Everingham despite my rule on Saturday as only wanted to bet on 1 game ($10) Saturday night.

 

[newman]

So for Superrugby with 22 players per side the odds could be 44/1 for each player?

If it was fair, yes. But it isnt. The odds change to benefit the bookmakers.

 

[newman]

Thanks for the life lesson chief. Even if I don't win I enjoy a casual punt, I don't think anyone is in denial about their probability of winning against huge odds. Like so much in life the punt is enjoyable in moderation. The sports book is my game of choice because there is actually an element of strategy (even if you think there isn't).

You were the one who said I have NFI.

 

[Tipster]

Backing Raiders as underdogs

But opposing them when they are favourites

 

[Parra]

If it was fair, yes. But it isnt. The odds change to benefit the bookmakers.

How about premiership odds? All teams should be 16/1 ?

 

[Vic Mackey]

Yep. But it becomes a bit more complex because you could argue that most first tries are scored before any interchanged are made.

Ok I'll do you a deal. I'll give you $10 a week for barba, Merritt and Brett Morris FTS and you give me 34/1 odds

We on?

 

[Vic Mackey]

Actually to make it worth it to you let's make it 30/1

 

[Cumberland Throw]

FTS makes book makers shit load of money

The average should be 26.00, so for every $10.00 player there should be a $66 player, if betting volumes were equal and tab was taking no profit

You never know how much is held on each player, but trust me they make shit loads

 

[Juju]

If it was fair, yes. But it isnt. The odds change to benefit the bookmakers.

Is anything in life fair?

This is a thread to get punting leads. :roll:

 

[Juju]

St George penalty goal as first points was almost sure fire under Bennett.

 

[Flapper]

No. It is you who has NFI if you think that getting 11-1 odds on an option where the true probability is 26-1 is good value.
By simply admitting to gambling on football you are admitting that you have no clue about life. The odds and system is stacked to take your money from you and the whole thing is leveraged to the advantage of the bookie or the TAB. Gambling is a mugs game. You will always come out well behing in the long run.

Your use of "true probability" to try and prove your wowserism is bullshit. Scoring a try is not like roulette or the lottery, the variables involved (speed, agility, ability to bust defence etc etc) skews the odds.more favourably for some and the other way for others.

Before you start talking, know the subject.

 

[MSIH]

No. It is you who has NFI if you think that getting 11-1 odds on an option where the true probability is 26-1 is good value.
By simply admitting to gambling on football you are admitting that you have no clue about life. The odds and system is stacked to take your money from you and the whole thing is leveraged to the advantage of the bookie or the TAB. Gambling is a mugs game. You will always come out well behing in the long run.

Someone failed their Year 7 probability exam. Thanks for the laugh though. Maybe each player should have odds of 2-1, player A either is or isn't going to score the first try.

 

[in.tro]

FTS makes book makers shit load of money

The average should be 26.00, so for every $10.00 player there should be a $66 player, if betting volumes were equal and tab was taking no profit

You never know how much is held on each player, but trust me they make shit loads

this sounds about right..

if your betting on FTS its goto be for fun, because long term your gonna lose alot of money..

i dont mind 40/20 kicks.. always pay $4-$5.

 

[Parra]

No need to skull drag them in.

 

[Zigwaa]

Try in the last 8 minutes usually comes up the goods with a lot of soft tries at the end of games.

A good one is 40/20s if a player is on a good run of getting them, pays $4+ and it can be from either team. A complete no no in the wet though.

 

[Skreepe]

Always back the team with the line(or without) the week after their coach was sacked.

First week of football is also good as pre-season form counts for little and Bookies have to set their prices following the teams on paper. Good time to get on the underdogs.

 

[Usain Bolt]

I like to bet on what minute Matai will grab his neck or Anasta whinge to the refs