Finals Equation

[Bicey_18]

After Manly winning tonight.. seems our top 4 chances are dead and buried. The winner of Sunday's game between Eels and Broncos will jump into 4th and you would think they would beat their opposition next week... therefore grabbing 4th.. I think we are in danger of finishing 7th.. although if we win tomorrow night, Raiders lose... we can grab at worst 6th. Cos the loser of Broncos and Eels will remain on 28 and a win would see us on 30.. with an automatic 2 points puts us on 32.. so even if they win next week they move to 30, still 2 points behind us as will you would think Canberra. The Dragons are behind us by 30 points in F/A but have 2 games in hand against Sharks and Roosters.. you would think they would grab 2 easy wins there to put them past our F/A. So our most likely position is 6th and that puts us up against the Broncos at Suncorp in the 1st week

 

[Jono078]

If we win + Bye that = 32 points

Parra and Broncos only aloud to win 1 game, so that way we can be 4th, and hope Dragons dont smash their opposition.

So 4th is really possible if we win tomorrow.

 

[bluesbreaker]

Useless Dogs, can't do anything right.

 

[6togo]

If we win tomorrow night by say 10 or so isnt the difference in F&A between Newcastle and Manly something like 17 points?

That would mean that if Melbourne beat them next week down there by 10 or so we scrape into the top 4??

The Dragons F&A isnt too flash so we should get in there. Fingers crossed for a big performance by the boys tomorrow night.

Cheers

 

[Missa]

As long as we don't finish 7th or 8th I don't really care...our away record is better than our home record this year isn't it?
I just don't want to be playing the storm or doggies.....errrr

 

[Bicey_18]

Manly - 32 (+51) - Melbourne (A)
Eels - 28 (+60) - Broncos (H), Cowboys (A)
Broncos - 28 (+58) - Eels (A), Warriors (H)
Knights - 28 (+34) - Panthers (H), Bye
Dragons - 28 (+4) - Sharks (H), Roosters (A)
Raiders - 28 (-46) - Storm (H), Sharks (A)


I reckon Manly will go down to Melbourne by 8-14, leaving them on 32

Eels will lose to Brisbane, then bounce back against the Cowboys to finish on 30

Broncos to beat Parra and lose to the Warriors to finish on 30

Knights to defeat Penrith by 8, have bye up sleeve to finish on 32

Dragons to beat Sharks and Roosters comfortably to finish on 32

Raiders to go down to Melbourne and Sharks to finish on 28

Ladder after round 26

Melbourne 44
Bulldogs 34
Knights 32
Eagles 32
Dragons 32
Broncos 30
Eels 30
Raiders 28

I think the good thing for us is manly play melbourne in melbourne... and that should help us with the F/A.

Major thing is we HAVE 2 win tonight to have a shot ... if we lose well we are destined 4 7th imo and be bundled out straight away

 

[Big Tim]

I can see the Broncos not winning another game.

The Warriors are a danger for them.

Us winning tonight and the Eels and Storm winning their final matches should see us scrape into 4th.

 

[CycloneSteve]

Well with a 36 point win we are almost top 4 material....now we play the waiting game....

 

[ShadesOfTheSun]

Top 4 for the Knights can be achieved by any one of the following four occuring:

1. Manly loses to the Storm. Manly's F/A is inferior to Newcastle's, and a loss would mean that the two teams would be even on 32 points, and consequently Newcastle would finish ahead.

2. Parra vs Brisbane ends in a draw. Since both teams have 28 points at the moment, a draw would mean they would both be incapable of making the 32 necessary to bump Newcastle.

3. Winner of Parra vs Brisbane loses or draws their next match. So if Parra beat Brisbane, they need to lose to the Cowboys (ha), and if Brisbane beat Parra, they need to lose to the Warriors (actually quite possible).

4. Winner of Parra vs Brisbane wins round 26, but by few points. Newcastle's F/A is superior to both Parra and Brisbane, so both of those teams would need to win by reasonable scores to bump Newcastle.

Any of the above would result in a home semi final for NC.

EDIT: Technically, St. George could also bump the Knights, but they'd need to beat the Roosters by a good 58 points.

 

[IanG]

I'm sure our 36 point win will also throw a spanner into the works of some other scenareos too

 

[ShadesOfTheSun]

Well, the scope of the win made things a LOT more difficult for the Dragons. If the Knights had won by a little less, they'd still be in top four contention next week, but as it stands, a 60 point win over the Roosters just doesn't seem possible no matter how poor they've been in recent times. Parra still have excellent chances of a top 4 if they beat Brisbane, since their final game is against the Cowboys, but if the Broncos win, they'll need to win by a decent margin because the Warriors always give them trouble.

The 36 point win also meant that Manly have to manage a draw or win against Melbourne to guarantee a spot in the four. If the Knights had won by 16 or less, the Eagles would have a superior F/A, and could lose to Melbourne and still place ahead of the Knights if they didn't lose by too much. But since the Knights are now ahead on F/A, the Eagles can only move ahead of them by claiming more competition points - a loss is no longer an option.

I'd have been happier with a few more goals to put the Dragons completely out of the picture (60-0 doesn't seem completely impossible, with the quality of the Roosters' game of late), but this is good as it is.

 

[Bring it home Knights]

cheers to a lot of you guys for going to the effort you have on all the senerios. I wasn;t looking forward to having to work it all out. Well done

 

[Bicey_18]

Looks like we are finishing 4th after Brisbanes big win today.. which isnt really a bad thing. If we were to finish 3rd we would most likely have 2 play St George at home and we all know how we go against them at home... finishing 4th means we will most likely play Manly at home in which is very winnable.. how ironic is it though.

Newcastle Vs Manly - Friday Night... Joey's comeback game against the team he last played in similar circumstances... this time we will be full strength and be refreshed...

 

[Stranger]

Storm havent been setting the world on fire lately Bicey.

Manly could very well upset the Storm.

 

[cram]

Okay so it looks like, unless the Dragons have a huge win that is +52, the worst we can finish is 5th and the best is 4th.

So looks like we will be all glued to the TV or radio on Saturday night when Manly play the Storm.

 

[macavity]

now we play the waiting game....

I hate the waiting game, lets play hungry hungry hippos......

 

[Stranger]

Okay so it looks like, unless the Dragons have a huge win that is +52, the worst we can finish is 5th and the best is 4th.

3rd.

 

[Bicey_18]

Storm havent been setting the world on fire lately Bicey.

Manly could very well upset the Storm.

Thats what makes them more dangerous stranger, Bellamy was livid after the teams effort last night and will be no doubt revving up his players for this game.. Manly have injury worries to Watmough and Orford.. Kennedy is still uncertain to return.. I just think Melbourne in Melbourne will hit back against tough opposition to win..

 

[ShadesOfTheSun]

Brisbane beating Parra was a good result, IMHO, since the Warriors have more of a chance of upsetting the Broncs next week than the Cowboys do of beating Parra. A Warriors or Storm win will see Newcastle in the top four (well, unless St. George beat the Roosters by 52 +). Both, and we'll be in at third.

 

[cram]

3rd will be if the Broncos get beaten by the Warriors, yes forgot that equation