Five Year Future

[Doctor]

A serious discussion, albeit headed by a tough question:

This is indeed a tough question, and no-one will be refreshing five year old topics to see how you fared, but the question is interesting all the same.

In five years the Knights will probably be without the likes of Johns, Kenendy, O'Davis, MacDougall, Hughes, Parsons, etc. Where then does this leave the Knights, and what do you think the future holds.

This question is as ambiguous as you want to make it. I'm certainly not going to start predicting that Newcastle will sign a talent like Benji Marshall and he'll become our star player for the next 10 years.

So essentially I personally answer this question by beginning to breeze over the talents coming through. Reliable players like Abraham, Buderus, the two Gidleys, Simpson, Quinn, etc would still be playing regularly I'd be thinking.

You then begin to look at some of the players in the lower grades who may have cemented a spot over the next five years - Ennis, Young, Lowrie, Estatheo, Price, etc etc.

I've actually be quite encouraged about our future over the past few weeks. Seeing Kurt Gidley perform, seeing the quality players around him still putting in great games in Johns' absence, and hearing and seeing the form of the likes of Ennis in the lower grades. It reassures me that there is life after Johns and that the Knights, in my opinion, will still be a top 8 side for years to come.

The Newcastle region is, afterall, a very productive area for breeding talent. The current Knights side aren't the only quality players making a name, and this is testament to the fact that Newcastle is a place where league players are being given support and encouragement early.

While I won't be drawn on whether the Knights can win a premiership in 5 years (there is a lot of bridges to pass under the water before we start speculating on that), I believe the Knights are building a strong side for the future, and that is reassuring.

Your thoughts?

 

[antonius]

I think the Knights will remain in and around the top 6 teams or so for many years to come, providing the set up is kept more or less as it is now, by that I mean a functioning salary cap that like it or not has started to have the desired effect, ie:- has stopped the big money teams buying up all the available talent. The Knights have missed only one finals series since 1996 I think ( don't quote me on that though) During that period we have seen a lot of talented players come and go from the club, some who were long term players, some who were only around for a couple of years, players like Muir, Harrigan, Butts, Fairleigh, Glanville, McCormac, Ross, M.Johns,Peden,Albert, to name a few. We have always managed to replace these guys and still remain up near the top,add to that the many Juniors that have gone elsewhere and performed at the top level. The current crop of juniors at the club are carrying on that tradition, we have numerous very talented players on their way up, some we'll loose, others will become the future Harrigans,O'Davis's, and Kennedy's. I am very confident that we will remain as I said at the begining, one of the comps heavyweights for many years to come.

 

[roopy]

I don't think we have ever been in a better position when it comes to forwards, hookers and halfbacks in the team and in development, but I honestly think we have a problem with backs at the moment, or will have in the near future.

The forwards are young and good. Under the age of 25 we have Simpson, Abraham, Perry, Woolnough, Newton, Price, Esatheo, Matt Kennedy, Todd Lowrie, Reegan Tanner and Blake Mueller who have all played firstgrade, and we have an outstanding crop of 18 and 19 year olds (Tilse, Tolar, Worth, White, Brown, Bartlett) who are just behind all those 20 and 21 year olds in development. Under that level we have Snowden and Andriessen from our Ball team who are both schoolboy rep players, and Snowden must be the best 16 yo player in the world if being the standout player in an u17 game between NSW and Qld means anything. Also from our ball team we have Ison and Wooden who are both only a shade below Snowden IMO.

Hooker is the strongest position at the club at present I reckon. Buderus is still under 25 and easily the best in the world. Quigley looks like staying for another season and, at 21, he is an outstanding talent, a firstgrade player at any other club. 18 yo Ennis seems to be our top junior at the moment with talent to burn. Shaun Wallace is being kept on the bench in Premier League by Ennis, but he is an outstanding talent. Wallace has a great football brain. In Flegg and Ball we have Parker and Sainty, who have both won coaches awards for their play this year and both look to be really clever hookers out of the same mould the guys above them.

In halfback we have Tyrie in Premier League who has had a bad season adjusting to playing in the seniors, but he had many rep honours during his junior career. He is slowly getting back his confidence as the young forwards in front of him start to compete against the older guys they meet every week. On the reserves bench in Premier League we have Brad Wallace, who toured with the Australian schoolboys last off season. From Flegg we have Duffy, the current NSW u19 halfback, and Scott Dureau and his understudy from Ball are both outstanding as well.

Our 5/8 stocks are a little thin, but we have Kurt Gidley who could easily be Aust. 5/8 well within 5 years and under him we have Brad Tighe from Flegg who is just about the most capped junior rep player ever from the Knights (he was in everything going in 2001), Chad Solman who just looks good to me, and the tryscoring machine Leigh Abel from the Ball side.

The problem comes when we get to centres, wingers and fullbacks. In firstgrade the only ones we have who will be with us in 5 years are Tahu and Quinn. In reserve grade the only bloke who looks good is Young. From Flegg we have Doggett, Woo and Tremain-Cannon, but all of them need to improve a lot before they look firstgrade potential. The only guy from Ball who looked good in the backs was Tredrea, but he was playing lock by the end of the Ball season, and probably will make his name in the forwards.

I think we have bought Witt and a young guy named Henderson who could both be outside backs for next year, but I think we need to find maybe five more promicing guys in the near future to make sure of a class backline in years to come. Its a pity we can't get guys like Albert (Eng), Franze (Cro), Polglase(Cant), Lantry(Parra) and Ale(Easts) to come back. There is a great back five right there, and they are all guys we have lost to other clubs over the last few years

 

[Leasha]

I don't think we have ever been in a better position when it comes to forwards, hookers and halfbacks in the team and in development, but I honestly think we have a problem with backs at the moment, or will have in the near future.

This sentence pretty much sums up my opinion of the prospective Knights team in 5 years. Like Chook commented, many of our current backs are getting older and will be looking toward retirement soon. More importantly, looking at the ages of these players at present, there is a problem that in 5 years, there could possibly be a mass exodus as they all retire. I think that the Knight will need to pray for a few fantastic young backs to come through, or else will need to start looking to purchase from elsewhere!
But of course, all our problems could be solved if Mark Hughes' prediction that Andrew Johns would still be playing in 2023... if we still had Joey, we could do anything!!!

 

[Encurly]

Five years is a long time in footballing terms. Most of the outside backs are in their mid-20's, so there's a few years to develop or acquire some more there.

I was thinking about this the other day, but in three years not five, and the top 17 looks pretty good, something like:

1. M Young
2. T Tahu
3. M Gidley
4. M Hughes/C Hall
5. A Quinn
6. S Witt
7. K Gidley
8. J Perry
9. D Buderus
10. A Woolnough
11. S Simpson (c)
12. D Abraham
13. T Lowrie

14. A Price
15. C Newton
16. D Tilse
17. M Ennis

Then there's more depth in the forwards - Tanner, Estatheo, Quigley, Mueller, Snowden etc.

The recruitment strategy then once Johns and Kennedy retire has to be to get some depth in the outside backs.

Hmmm - never noticed that before M Ennis --> Mennis --> Menace

 

[Terminator]

I think Snowden will definitely be established in 1st grade in 3-5 years, I don't think Hughes will be there.

 

[Doctor]

the Knight will need to pray for a few fantastic young backs to come through, or else will need to start looking to purchase from elsewhere!

As Beaker (Encurly) said, 5 years is a long time.

Think of it this way: How many new players have come through in the last 5 years?
- Quinn
- Tahu
- C.Hall
- K.Gidley
- Perry
- Buderus
- Simpson
- Abraham

+ Kennedy and Parsons being recruited.

Your turnover rate generally might be half your team every 5 years - and that is a low-turnover.

Think of it this way too - kid playing Under 15-16's at the moment might be playing first grade for us in five years. Most Under 15's-16s kids haven't been discovered yet, or else haven't grown properly to assess their size and speed.

As I said - a lot of players come through in the space of 5 years, and it is highly possible that the existing lower-graders will become regulars at first grade, or else the juniors will eventually turn into the Quinns, Halls and Jobsons - reliable youngsters that get 12-15 matches a season.

Roopy's comments about the lower grades are very worthwhile reading - I think he is right on the money as far as player development goes, and I too see the backline as a big problem. This is somewhat different to 1997-98 when our backline was touted as the highlight of our team.

But as I've said; players come through and a fellow playing junior leagues now might turn out to be a very good 18-19 year old player in 5 years.

 

[roopy]

I totally agree that five years is a long time, especially for juniors. Kurt Gidley has been at the club for less than three years now for instance.

The great thing about watching the juniors is you can see someone like Kade Snowden go from being just another face in the crowd to being a potential star in just one season.

We could easily have the next great back lurking in our lower grades just waiting for a growth spurt to happen before he starts to shine, or maybe the next big thing is playing for Valentine this year and hasn't even made the Knights juniors (like Kurt Gidley, Mark Hughes, Billy Peden etc).

A guy who might be something if he grows is Ball 5/8 Leigh Abel. He has great hands and reflexes, and just needs a bit of size now to make him a standout.

 

[Doctor]

We could easily have the next great back lurking in our lower grades just waiting for a growth spurt to happen before he starts to shine, or maybe the next big thing is playing for Valentine this year and hasn't even made the Knights juniors (like Kurt Gidley, Mark Hughes, Billy Peden etc).

Precisely my point, and that is why the five-year timeframe is unreasonable in which to predict in. It still is worthwhile looking at players and examining the longevity aspect of their careers. I see a fellow like Daniel Abraham as the next Bill Peden because he is rarely injured and has a good game every week.

Your points about where future stars are currently at is well made - there is no way knowing where the next player will come from. On top of this, some players currently in the Knights' grades may suffer career-ending injuries, or may not manage to play enough games each season to keep in shape and keep the selector's attention and patience.

You look at a player like Josh Smith or Justin Ryder - once touted as the next backs in line, but now, even fully fit, they still wouldn't command a spot ahead of Quinn, Hall, etc.

 

[Doctor]

I'm not sure how enthusiastic we all are, but I scrolled back through a few threads to see what was said a year or two ago about our future. There are some interesting themes:

You look at a player like Josh Smith or Justin Ryder - once touted as the next backs in line, but now, even fully fit, they still wouldn't command a spot ahead of Quinn, Hall, etc.

In the space of 1.5 years/19 months or so, both Hall and Quinn have become the Smiths, Ryders, Becketts etc of our current team. I'm still prepared to give Quinn the benefit of the doubt that he will improve, but Hall and Carmont (who wasn't around in 2003), have clearly proven to be fads.

1. M Young
2. T Tahu
3. M Gidley
4. M Hughes/C Hall
5. A Quinn
6. S Witt
7. K Gidley
8. J Perry
9. D Buderus
10. A Woolnough
11. S Simpson (c)
12. D Abraham
13. T Lowrie

14. A Price
15. C Newton
16. D Tilse
17. M Ennis

(I've bolded/highlighted the players that I'd keep)

Wow. This is a 2006 team prediction. There weren't too many objections to the likelihood of this team. I think most would have seen the rise of Snowden though. You look at the team now and can pick three players who have left the club, and another couple who have really fallen off the pace. It's a pretty ordinary looking side, come to think of it.

I think the problem is that the competition/opposition has become harder, and we haven't adapted to the change. No longer can we accept players like Hall, Hughes, Price, Perry, Witt and even players like Kurt Gidley and others playing out of position.

The problem comes when we get to centres, wingers and fullbacks. In firstgrade the only ones we have who will be with us in 5 years are Tahu and Quinn. In reserve grade the only bloke who looks good is Young. From Flegg we have Doggett, Woo and Tremain-Cannon, but all of them need to improve a lot before they look firstgrade potential. The only guy from Ball who looked good in the backs was Tredrea, but he was playing lock by the end of the Ball season, and probably will make his name in the forwards.

How are these players doing now Roopy?

Tredrea? I take it he has left. How old would he be now?
Doggett?
Woo?

 

[macavity]

i think im just gunna have a cry now...

 

[Misanthrope]

Doggett is long gone. He had a girlfriend who basically made him quit league to be with her. Absolutely insane, as he was a real talent.

 

[jamesgould]

A lot of these players looked good in the lower grades, but have shown an astonishing inability to come up with the goods in first grade. Price, Lowrie, Kennedy, Quinn, etc. These guys have made little/no progress over the last few seasons, and in some cases have gone backwards. Your guess is as good as mine as to why this is, but it's left us in a pretty precarious position.

James.

 

[Johns Magic]

What the club needs is a mass overhaul, seriously. We need to get rid of the average players and recruit quality.

Take the core and future of the club(Mullen, Tighe, Snowden, Woolnough, Simpson, Abraham, Newton, Brown, Buderus), plus some other handy players(Seage, Thaiday, Tolar, Lowrie, Cooper, Campbell, possibly Kidley if played in the centres, and possibly Quinn if he is taught where to stand-he has speed and size and can tackle, but struggles positionally, possibly due to Carmont), and start again.

Get rid of the likes of Gidley, Carmont, Hall, Meuller, Hughes, Kennedy, Perry, Price, Quigley, Reynoldson, Tanner, Josh Smith, Witt, Craig Smith and Johns over the next 3 years.
Bar the last two, who will have retired, these are the types of players who will not win us a premiership, and will not be a part of the future of this club. They all contribute very little to the club.

That's a sh*tload of money right there with which we can rebuild the team. Well over $2 million by my count. With this money, we should look to go out on the market and make some astute signings which will make the club a force once again.

If we keep the 17 players I mentioned at the top of this post, we will have $2 million to recruit 8 players. That's alot of money, even give or take a couple of $100,000.

The management needs to be ruthless if they want to reinstall pride and success in the club.

 

[Misanthrope]

If we had the financial power of the Roosters, I'd be all for it. We could pay out a few contracts here and there, and get to work on rebuilding. Unfortunately, we're dirt poor, so the only way we'll lose players is if they walk out on their contract, or if it expires. Losing Perry and Hughes at season's end is a good start.

 

[Johns Magic]

But that's the beauty of it CWB. All of the players I mentioned, bar Reynoldson, are off contract by the end of next season.

 

[Misanthrope]

But that's the beauty of it CWB. All of the players I mentioned, bar Reynoldson, are off contract by the end of next season.

Wow, that's pretty good, then. I should've done my research, lol. That said, I don't know if the club can survive next year if it's going to be a repeat of this one. If we're doing a player cleanout post 2006, we should definitely be doing a management cleanout this year in preparation for it.

 

[northey]

i put top 4

 

[Jobdog]

Take the core and future of the club(Mullen, Tighe, Snowden, Woolnough, Simpson, Abraham, Newton, Brown, Buderus), plus some other handy players(Seage, Thaiday, Tolar, Lowrie, Cooper, Campbell, possibly Kidley if played in the centres, and possibly Quinn if he is taught where to stand-he has speed and size and can tackle, but struggles positionally, possibly due to Carmont), and start again.

Get rid of the likes of Gidley, Carmont, Hall, Meuller, Hughes, Kennedy, Perry, Price, Quigley, Reynoldson, Tanner, Josh Smith, Witt, Craig Smith and Johns over the next 3 years.

Bar the last two, who will have retired, these are the types of players who will not win us a premiership, and will not be a part of the future of this club. They all contribute very little to the club.

JM, I hav to agree 200% on what ur saying there. All those that u said need to stay, SHOULD be talking contracts right now, I don't care when the respective contracts run out. Mullen, Tighe, Snowden, Woolnough, Simpson, Abraham, Newton, Brown, Buderus should all be talking contracts. Buderus has signed for 3 years I think so that looks after him, Brown re-signed for 2 years last week. So there are 2 contracts out of 9 which hav been sorted out. Now they need to put the likes of Simpson,Snowden, Woolnough and Mullen at the head of the queue and re-sign them ASAP. If they do this, and sign some quality first graders, the Knights should be up the top of the table where they belong in about a year or two.