We were close to it in 2008 too. 14 points coming into Round 15.
The point is..........sh*t happens in this game. Teams go on big winning streaks and some go on big losing streaks. No way can you predict the 8 at this stage.
Yes you were close, and yes you were one of the teams to have a good run. Eels did too in 2009, and again a few years before that.
Of course crazy sh*t happens, and nothing is certain in terms of results. Even Melbourne could miss the 8- they could possibly mathematically get the spoon still if every team turned their fortunes completely around.
Threads like this are to stimulate exactly the discussion that has happened, and for people to remind us of when teams did make runs, and to see if anyone can give a reason why they might still make a run to the 8. Predictions from week 2 or 3 are so rarely correct that they are not worth worrying about. Predictions from 11 weeks to go are often wrong, but we can see how hard it is from past seasons for teams to catch up.
But if you were asked to bet whether the top 8 would stay or change, what way would you bet, and why?
I would bet at this stage that it doesn't change, but still concede there is a good chance it will. The more changes you predict I'd say the more unlikely it is to happen.
If there is change, obviously with 18 points and pretty tough runs you'd think Tigers and Cowboys are two teams that might slip, but again, any team could fall.
Teams on 14 points, especially if in pretty good form (like the Titans) or with good seasons last year so theoretically still good teams (Warriors/Dragons) are the most likely to make the 8, but again, the Eels might win their next 11 and get into the 8 on 30 points.
The other point about this year is that it is a more split competition between a top and bottom half than in recent years, where the split has been a bit higher up, and this may make the top 8 cut off this year relatively high.
Another consideration is that teams going on big winning streaks to finish 5th to 8th in past years has given them great momentum to launch into the finals. This year, 5th to 8th look to be pretty equal positions, so scraping into 8th is not so bad (not playing the minor premiers) but scraping into 5th or 6th is probably a little worse (depending on the form of teams 7 and 8) as there is no 2nd chance and no way of skipping a week (not that 5 or 6 were ever the top 2 winners as far as I can recall in the McIntyre series).
