http://www.smh.com.au/news/league/beware-the-purple-avengers/2007/03/03/1172868805898.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I'M FINDING it increasingly difficult at this stage of each season to predict the premiership winners, or even the likely finals contenders. There's no doubt the teams have evened out. Crikey, they all look the same and play the same. We see plenty of breathtaking brilliance from some talented individuals, but I don't see any truly great football teams.
Premierships used to be so hard to win but these days it appears a team can be mediocre for 80 per cent of the season, have a good run in August and September and then win the title. It should be harder than that. Depth has become a problem at most NRL clubs. The loss of two or three key players to injury almost certainly ends that team's premiership hopes. Is this how a professional sport should be run?
Still, there's no reason this season won't be enjoyable, and most teams have a chance of carrying off the major prize - well, almost. I've divided the 16 teams into three groups. Lock these into your top eight:
Storm They deserved to be premiers in 2006. They had absolutely no luck on grand final day (read "robbed") and will be highly motivated. They've lost some experienced players but this should be offset by the natural improvement in some of their younger crew.
Brisbane They handled the last three weeks of 2006 brilliantly but this was the only time all year they looked the goods. Still, they have the big-name players and some good kids coming through the ranks. They should fire again.
Warriors My dark horses. I might be way off the mark here but there's something about them that keeps getting me in. If they start well, the Warriors could be the team that gains confidence and momentum.
Bulldogs You have to include them. The loss of Roy Asotasi and Nate Myles could be crucial but this club has been producing good forwards for 25 years. You can bet the Dogs will unearth someone new. I'm concerned at their capitulation to Brisbane in the finals last year but I can't find too many teams with better credentials.
Manly I've enjoyed their gradual build-up over the past two years and it should continue. Jamie Lyon could be the star they've been seeking.
Cowboys I don't know what happened last year but the Cowboys have too many talented players not to be making the top eight in 2007.
That leaves six teams battling for the other two spots:
Penrith New coach Matt Elliott could be the right man, in the right place, at the right time. There is so much potential at Penrith.
Parramatta If management hadn't created so much uncertainty over coaching appointments, the Eels' 2006 season could have been so very different. Opportunity lost, if you ask me. Brett Finch will be a success at Parramatta. He's erratic, but it's probably better to let him be erratic than try to harness him.
Newcastle Nothing has changed. Their season depends on the fitness of Andrew Johns. They always try hard but their primary objective will be to build for the future.
Sharks On paper there's no reason they can't play finals footy. New coach Ricky Stuart will bring intensity to training and preparations. Their best form last season was with Adam Dykes at halfback. When he moved, they went backwards. They need to find consistency.
Tigers I saw them trial two weeks ago and thought they were ordinary. Still, Benji Marshall and Brett Hodgson didn't play so maybe that assessment should be put on hold. Marshall is the key. Let's hope the long break has done him good.
Dragons I'm sick of tipping them and being disappointed. So this year I'll try reverse psychology. They can't win. Their biggest hurdle will be to overcome the likely loss for the season of their great player Mark Gasnier after his Charity Shield injury blow last night.
I can't see these four teams making the top eight:
Roosters I see great improvement but there's two years of hard work in front of them before they climb back to the top. They have some great young kids coming through, but it's too early to expect them to pull the Roosters out of the cellar and put them into the finals.
Souths The Rabbits bought better than any other club, but they had to. They have a lot of ground to make up on the rest of the field before they can be considered contenders for a top-eight berth. I hope they go well, but I want to see some technique and urgency in defence before I tip them.
Gold Coast It's going to be tough for them first year back into the big league. They've bought well, but they need to keep buying well and developing young players for a couple of seasons before they even think about the finals. Give them time.
Canberra Just about every senior player coming off contract (plus the coach) walked off to greener pastures. What does it mean? I don't know yet but surely it can't be good.
STAY PUT, SONNY
I HOPE Sonny Bill Williams remains loyal to the Bulldogs. He owes them another contract. I hate using the "L" word to players these days because I know clubs will cut you as soon as look at you. There's very little loyalty coming in the other direction, especially if you're not a top-liner.
But Williams, for all his ability and potential, has missed a lot of football over the past three seasons. He's played only 41 games of a possible 78, and many of those off the bench, out of position or feeling his way after returning from injury. Bulldogs coach Steve Folkes has been very patient and has protected him along the way.
I don't know for certain, but it's highly unlikely the Bulldogs would have docked his pay during his extended absences. I've never met the kid and I know little about him other than that he's one of the most gifted footballers I've seen. He also appears to have a bit of quality and I reckon he knows he owes the club a great deal.
Managers are paid to get their clients the best possible contract. A lot of the uncertainty is created by them as an illusion to extract the most money they can from the player's club of choice. But I'd be surprised if Williams has seriously considered leaving the Dogs.
Three years ago I said he was worth a million dollars a season and I haven't changed my opinion. I hope he gets it. But I also hope he stays with the Bulldogs for at least one more contract.
I'M FINDING it increasingly difficult at this stage of each season to predict the premiership winners, or even the likely finals contenders. There's no doubt the teams have evened out. Crikey, they all look the same and play the same. We see plenty of breathtaking brilliance from some talented individuals, but I don't see any truly great football teams.
Premierships used to be so hard to win but these days it appears a team can be mediocre for 80 per cent of the season, have a good run in August and September and then win the title. It should be harder than that. Depth has become a problem at most NRL clubs. The loss of two or three key players to injury almost certainly ends that team's premiership hopes. Is this how a professional sport should be run?
Still, there's no reason this season won't be enjoyable, and most teams have a chance of carrying off the major prize - well, almost. I've divided the 16 teams into three groups. Lock these into your top eight:
Storm They deserved to be premiers in 2006. They had absolutely no luck on grand final day (read "robbed") and will be highly motivated. They've lost some experienced players but this should be offset by the natural improvement in some of their younger crew.
Brisbane They handled the last three weeks of 2006 brilliantly but this was the only time all year they looked the goods. Still, they have the big-name players and some good kids coming through the ranks. They should fire again.
Warriors My dark horses. I might be way off the mark here but there's something about them that keeps getting me in. If they start well, the Warriors could be the team that gains confidence and momentum.
Bulldogs You have to include them. The loss of Roy Asotasi and Nate Myles could be crucial but this club has been producing good forwards for 25 years. You can bet the Dogs will unearth someone new. I'm concerned at their capitulation to Brisbane in the finals last year but I can't find too many teams with better credentials.
Manly I've enjoyed their gradual build-up over the past two years and it should continue. Jamie Lyon could be the star they've been seeking.
Cowboys I don't know what happened last year but the Cowboys have too many talented players not to be making the top eight in 2007.
That leaves six teams battling for the other two spots:
Penrith New coach Matt Elliott could be the right man, in the right place, at the right time. There is so much potential at Penrith.
Parramatta If management hadn't created so much uncertainty over coaching appointments, the Eels' 2006 season could have been so very different. Opportunity lost, if you ask me. Brett Finch will be a success at Parramatta. He's erratic, but it's probably better to let him be erratic than try to harness him.
Newcastle Nothing has changed. Their season depends on the fitness of Andrew Johns. They always try hard but their primary objective will be to build for the future.
Sharks On paper there's no reason they can't play finals footy. New coach Ricky Stuart will bring intensity to training and preparations. Their best form last season was with Adam Dykes at halfback. When he moved, they went backwards. They need to find consistency.
Tigers I saw them trial two weeks ago and thought they were ordinary. Still, Benji Marshall and Brett Hodgson didn't play so maybe that assessment should be put on hold. Marshall is the key. Let's hope the long break has done him good.
Dragons I'm sick of tipping them and being disappointed. So this year I'll try reverse psychology. They can't win. Their biggest hurdle will be to overcome the likely loss for the season of their great player Mark Gasnier after his Charity Shield injury blow last night.
I can't see these four teams making the top eight:
Roosters I see great improvement but there's two years of hard work in front of them before they climb back to the top. They have some great young kids coming through, but it's too early to expect them to pull the Roosters out of the cellar and put them into the finals.
Souths The Rabbits bought better than any other club, but they had to. They have a lot of ground to make up on the rest of the field before they can be considered contenders for a top-eight berth. I hope they go well, but I want to see some technique and urgency in defence before I tip them.
Gold Coast It's going to be tough for them first year back into the big league. They've bought well, but they need to keep buying well and developing young players for a couple of seasons before they even think about the finals. Give them time.
Canberra Just about every senior player coming off contract (plus the coach) walked off to greener pastures. What does it mean? I don't know yet but surely it can't be good.
STAY PUT, SONNY
I HOPE Sonny Bill Williams remains loyal to the Bulldogs. He owes them another contract. I hate using the "L" word to players these days because I know clubs will cut you as soon as look at you. There's very little loyalty coming in the other direction, especially if you're not a top-liner.
But Williams, for all his ability and potential, has missed a lot of football over the past three seasons. He's played only 41 games of a possible 78, and many of those off the bench, out of position or feeling his way after returning from injury. Bulldogs coach Steve Folkes has been very patient and has protected him along the way.
I don't know for certain, but it's highly unlikely the Bulldogs would have docked his pay during his extended absences. I've never met the kid and I know little about him other than that he's one of the most gifted footballers I've seen. He also appears to have a bit of quality and I reckon he knows he owes the club a great deal.
Managers are paid to get their clients the best possible contract. A lot of the uncertainty is created by them as an illusion to extract the most money they can from the player's club of choice. But I'd be surprised if Williams has seriously considered leaving the Dogs.
Three years ago I said he was worth a million dollars a season and I haven't changed my opinion. I hope he gets it. But I also hope he stays with the Bulldogs for at least one more contract.
