this would have to be the first season in which both GFists have had a change of coach going into the following year
i think 2012 might be the first season in recently memory in which both gfists miss the 8
Manly and the Warriors to go out. Canberra and Sharks/Bulldogs/Panthers to fill the spots
Manly and the Broncos have a far better roster than either of the Sharks, Bulldogs and Panthers. If Manly or the Broncos are to miss out o the 8 then better teams need to lift. I can see Canberra making the eight if you add Campese and some consistency to their line up.
For me, Manly would need a complete player attitude breakdown to miss the top half of the competition, They have a terrific spine that is sprinkled with Lyon, Gifty, Matai and Choc and they're a rare team that attacks well on both sides of the park. The naming of Toovey as the coach and not an outsider I could faithfully assume should provide the club with its best chance of carrying on from Hasler's remarkable efforts now that the great man has ejected from the pilot seat. This imploding crap should have settled down by the time the season rolls around with board re elections in December and off season training renewing player focus. All things being equal and injuries and attitude aside, this is a top four squad that should at worst finish ahead of at least 10 other clubs. Any lower than that and is difficult to envisage.
Brisbane have a terrific roster and some good rising stars looking for a chance to fill some legendary boots at arguably the greatest club in the modern competition. How the loss of Lockyer will affect them? Well the logic says it can't do them any good, but they've prepared for this moment for two seasons and they have the best forward pack in the comp next year (my opinion). If they do drop down the ladder, I can't see them falling any lower than 10th, obviously without Locky they're still a possibility to miss out on the 8 and that is difficult to argue due to their record without the great man.
On form I can only see the Warriors improving, I'm not into second year syndrome guesswork or possibilities of form reversals and injury, I call it as I see it. They get Nathan Friend at hooker and a couple of kids who looked awesome in the 20's. I'll be backing them to be in among the top four teams all year.
Melbourne. They dominated all year but for me, I felt teams started to work out their one dimensional percentage play toward the end of the year that accounted for 3 losses in their last four matches and their only win coming in that uninspiring semi final against Newcastle. Are they on the end of their run? I rate Bellamy as a coach, they have the best spine in the competition, and these bloke rarely get injured, and they have had a consistent off season (something Manly have not had) on that alone they should get past at least 9 other clubs in the run to the finish line.
My tip, if I had to pick one, it would be Brisbane but I'm probably leaning (at the moment) to all four finalist to make back into the semi finals this time around. Obviously Manly's issues make them a smokey on the basis that if they keep imploding it has the ability to affect their off season and quality off season's are more important now than ever before.
