If you hate Morts...

[Maroubra Eel]

But stats can lie.

 

[SDM]

No they can't.

 

[Eels Dude]

I'm actually enjoying this joust. This is what good forums are all about. It's a good articulate argument, not too personal, but still colourful. I reckon I'm even learning something.

Cheers Eels Dude and Poupou, keep it up.

It's a good fight, but at this point I reckon Poupou is ahead on points. Ha ha

G

Cheers guruminga. Forums are all about discussion in the end and if we can all raise our points with resorting to pot shots and abuse that's only a good thing.

In regards to stats, they don't show the full story. Im a big fan of Nathan Cayless, a legend of the game and the Eels. Stats show he could still hold his own last year in metres gained, but I concede defeat as to how well he played, because stats don't show that he hit the ball up like a pillow, didn't bend the line, and struggled to get quick play the balls. All they show is he made *insert number* amount of hitups for *insert number* amount of metres. That's why I think observations are just as reliable if not more important than stats.

 

[SDM]

Cheers guruminga. Forums are all about discussion in the end and if we can all raise our points with resorting to pot shots and abuse that's only a good thing.

In regards to stats, they don't show the full story. Im a big fan of Nathan Cayless, a legend of the game and the Eels. Stats show he could still hold his own last year in metres gained, but I concede defeat as to how well he played, because stats don't show that he hit the ball up like a pillow, didn't bend the line, and struggled to get quick play the balls. All they show is he made *insert number* amount of hitups for *insert number* amount of metres. That's why I think observations are just as reliable if not more important than stats.

Spot on, stats can misrepresent, they can skew reality etc. But they can't lie.

 

[Wise Old Eel]

I have made no secret of the fact that I am not a fan of Daniel Mortimer. With most good players, even early on in their first grade career, you can see touches of brilliance. Their skill set is very good and all they need is more experience. More time to smooth out the rough edges. But with Daniel, I have never seen in him what his supporters have. I have nothing against the bloke personally – and I certainly don’t hate him. In fact, I admire his courage, tenacity and his work ethic. There are many players with more ability who could learn from him in that respect.

However, I am really growing tired of the amount of attention this very ordinary player (albeit with a famous surname) gets in the media. To date, he has achieved very little on the field but is continually praised and talked up by the usual suspects.

In previous posts, ridicule was the order of the day for those of us who alluded to Mortimer possibly having clauses in his contract guaranteeing him favourable positions in the marketing of the club, positive “feel good” articles in a certain newspaper (in particular) and even a secured spot in the top 17. You might well think “how ridiculous”. Fair enough, we all have our own views on what may or may not be happening here. But why has it not occurred to anyone that this bloke gets more attention and media coverage than any other player in the Parramatta team? With nothing more to go on than his surname, how can anyone justify this as fair? I wonder what the other team members are thinking when they see yet another article hailing him as the next big thing when he has shown nothing (IMO) to earn this.

And Poupou Escobar, Mortimer’s stats do NOT justify him getting all this attention. In fact, the do just the opposite. I believe your quote was “The fact remains that the best players have the best stats and the poorest stats belong to the worst players. Do you think that's a coincidence?” Mm...no. No, I don’t think it is a coincidence at all.

Look, I really do hope the kid goes on to be our version of “Shane Watson”. Mr Watson had people backing him from an early age. Failure after failure, injury after injury, kept people asking “why does this bloke keep getting selected?” Just like Mr Watson, Daniel Mortimer has [important] people backing him to succeed. Personally, I don’t see it happening. Time will tell...

WOE

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Cheers guruminga. Forums are all about discussion in the end and if we can all raise our points with resorting to pot shots and abuse that's only a good thing.

Some would say pot shots and abuse add to the atmosphere you merkin.

In regards to stats, they don't show the full story.

They do if they're collected properly in the first place.

Most (all?) clubs keep stats for every part of the game you could possibly think of. For example, number of 'back-ups', 'forced erros', 'unforced erros', etc.

But many of these are subjective - a judgement call by the stat collector at the time - so they are unofficial outside of the particular club.

But in a roundabout way you're right - all stats are collected by observation. Which means they're not only not mutually exclusive, but the one is dependent on the other. That's why I make my point about correlation (the best players have the best stats) and in this case correlation does equal causation.

Anything we observe is a potential statistic.

Im a big fan of Nathan Cayless, a legend of the game and the Eels. Stats show he could still hold his own last year in metres gained, but I concede defeat as to how well he played, because stats don't show that he hit the ball up like a pillow, didn't bend the line, and struggled to get quick play the balls. All they show is he made *insert number* amount of hitups for *insert number* amount of metres. That's why I think observations are just as reliable if not more important than stats.

As I said, stats are derived from observation. There is a relation. Do you think stats are generated by robots or wizards in pointy hats? They are recorded as raw data by human beings watching (ie. observing) the events on a football field.

This is why stats don't lie.

And for the record, clubs keep their own stats on quick and slow play-the-balls but they are extremely subjective (which is why there is a lot of booing and cheering when a ref gives a penalty for holding down, for example - it's largely a matter of opinion).

As for Cayless, most players will end up with a slower play-the-ball if they go into the tackle looking for the offload. This is one of the downsides of structuring your game on offloads - quite often the best option is to take the tackle (forces the defence to retreat 10m where an offload doesn't) and hit-ups against a set defensive line are best when the ball-carrier can land on his guts quickly and play-the-ball asap. Even if there was the possibility of an ofload.

But I'm not telling you anything you don't know. I'm just illustrating why Cayless (or Hindmarsh or Mateo or Inu or Grothe) doesn't always get quick play-the-balls.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

On the idea that stats lie, I understand why the ignorant make this claim, and I'll illustrate it using the magic of stats (because interpretive dance is unsuitable through a text-based medium).

Eels Dude you might want to grab a drink, because you're about to be treated to a f**king statistical extravaganza..

Nathan Cayless' decline in effectiveness in recent years can be charted via stats.

Here's his numbers for metres per carry from 2005 to present:

Nathan Cayless

Year m/c
2010 7.7
2009 7.9
2008 8.0
2007 8.2
2006 8.1
2005 8.1

As we can see, for go-forward he definitely hung around a season too long, and possibly two seasons too long (you want at least 8 metres/carry from your props), especialy when we add average minutes:

Nathan Cayless

Year m/c min
2010 7.7...46
2009 7.9...47
2008 8.0...54
2007 8.2...53
2006 8.1...45 (struggled with injury this year hence low average minutes)
2005 8.1...56

But wait!

Nathan Cayless brings more to the table than just yardage (which sounds better than metrage). While his 50+ minutes per game used to be a strength that allowed his fellow front-rowers to have a longer rest, Anderson wound it back for '09 and '10 to basically allow Mannah (and Poore in '10) to play more minutes. Most teams don't have the luxury of 4 quality props and so their best ones (usually starters) play 50+ minutes anyway, which can have its own detrimental effect, as we shall see later (yes, more stats).

So what does Cayless offer besides go-forward? How about off-loading:

Offloads by Front-Rowers

2010
57 Nuuausala
54 Cayless
42 Tronc

2009
49 Nuuausala
47 Tronc
42 Cayless

2008
52 Ryles
37 Webb
35 Cashmere
.
.
.
20 Cayless

Obviously the total offloads (season) stat doesn't stand on its own. For starters there's no indication of games played, nor total carries. Probably offloads per carry would give the best indication of how much a guy offlloads but what is clear is that Cayless' offloads rose in conjunction with his reduced metres per carry (and his reduced minutes per game).

A poor analysis of the stats might tell us that less minutes made Cayless offload more. And there might be some truth there (maybe he felt more pressure to 'make something happen' in his limited minutes so tried the miracle ball more often?)

But a better analysis is that Cayless knew he was less effective at bending the line and slower at playing the ball, so decided to increase his offloads. It's a common trend that a lot of senior players increase their offloads as they get older, and it's often an attempt to compensate for a decline in the strength of their running game.

In the case of Nathan Cayless, there's also the fact that offloads worked so well at the back end of 2009 (he made 16 offloads in the first half of the season and 26 in the second half). He made even more offloads in 2010 which proved to be much less effective (like his running) which proves the adage that there's no use passing the ball if nobody's going forward.

The quality of Cayless' offloads can also be illustrated by these stats, where linebreak assists and errors are also considered:

Nathan Cayless Offloading

Year Off LBA Err
2010 54...1...9
2009 42...1...6
2008 20...1...9
2007 38...4..12
2006 21...4..13
2005 35...3..17

As you can see his offloads stopped being so effective at putting supports through the line from 2008. This indicates the decline of Cayless' running game (offloads being more effective when bending the line back). The reduced offloads in 2006 might have been an attempt to cut down on errors, and the 4 LBA is impressive in light of so few offloads. It took nearly twice as many offloads in 2007 to create the same amount of linebreaks, however with no extra erros. Bear in mind not all LBAs come from offloads - Cayless was very capable of passing before the line to put a man through, which is also why Fui gets so many LBAs for so few offloads.

Cayless' decline clearly began in 2008, which correspended with our decline as a club (correlation not causality).

But there's more to a front-rower than go-forward, minutes and offloads. There's also defence.

This is an area where Cayless has always been one of the best in the game. While he's never been as big a hitter as some of the monsters, his (relatively) small size has allowed him to not only play more minutes than most front-rowers, but also to make more tackles, and miss less of them.

Here's his average tackles per game, by year (and average minutes again, for reference) as well as missed tackles and ineffective tackles:

Nathan Cayless

Year min tac miss inef
2010 46...26..2.1..0.8
2009 47...26..1.5..0.9
2008 54...28..1.7..1.4
2007 53...30..1.6..0.8
2006 45...28..1.7..0.8
2005 56...27..1.7..1.6

As we can see, even though his minutes dropped considerably in 2009, his tackles per game didn't diminish quite so much (and we could analyse it further by counting tackles per minute if we could be bothered). Cayless clearly worked harder in defence while he was on the field in 2009 and 2010 than he did in 2008, where he played for an average of an extra 7-8 minutes per game, but made only an extra 2 tackles.

In fact, Cayless made less tackles per game in '08 than he did in '07, despite playing an extra minute (on average). He actually made the same number of tackles as in '06 yet played for 9 extra minutes. His ineffective tackles also nearly doubled. 2008 was clearly the start of Cayless' decline which would have contributed to his reduced minutes in '09.

We also see a jump in his ineffective tackles for 2005. Further examination shows that this can be explained by the fact that he played a lot of second row that year, where there is less defensive traffic and increased likelihood of an attacker getting an offload away.

In 2010, Cayless also averaged over 2 missed tackles per game for the first time since 2004 (where he played exclusively in the back-row and was mostly injured anyway). But 2.1 missed tackles per game is nothing to be ashamed of: most front-rowers miss more than that.

Which leads me to my next point.

These stats show Cayless' decline (his quality each year relative to other years) but they don't show his defensive quality relative to other front-rowers, so here's how he compared to some other front-rowers in 2010, including the other Parramatta props:

Front-rowers 2010

App mins m/c off LBA LB tac miss Name
24...59....8.2..20..2...1..31...2.5..Bailey
23...53....8.8..22..2...1..22...2.2..Scott
19...53....8.9..15..0...1..23...1.5..Civoniceva
18...44....7.1..42..2...0..29...2.3..Tronc
19...55....8.2...8...2...1..31...2.6..Hannant
19...40....8.6..14..0...4..22...1.3..Weyman
24...53....8.1..11..0...2..32...2.9..Douglas

24...46....7.7..54..1...0..26...2.1..Cayless
24...44....8.8...4...4...5..15...1.5..Moimoi
23...33....8.6..14..0...1..20...0.6..Mannah
23...40....8.3...3...0...1..22...1.7..Poore

For sh*ts and giggles I'll include this year's prop Carl Webb both last year and at his best (2005, aged 24) as well as Nathan Cayless at his peak (2007, aged 29):

22...53....8.2..38..4...0..30...1.6..Cayless 2007
18...34....8.2..24..2...2..13...2.3..Webb 2010
9.....46....9.7..15..1...4..15...2.0..Webb 2005 (He also started 7 games in the back-row.)

Webb's metres per carry were phenomenal in 2005.

Anyway the point here is that there are many different types of front-rowers, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. Tronc's carries are terribly soft, but he gets a lot of offloads and tackles while he's on the field, and I doubt he's chewing up too much of the Broncos' salary cap. Fui's metres per carry are up there with much bigger props like Civoniceva and Scott, but those metres are padded out somewhat by his superior linebreaking ability. Likewise Carl Webb.

Looking at Webb's and Fui's stats I'd say we won't see too much of them on the field at the same time this year - so one will always start with the other coming off the bench. This means then that Mannah and Poore can't both start - so one will have to come off the bench. Poore played more minutes this year so he'll probably start next year with Fui. Mannah and Webb will almost certainly be the interchange props, barring injury. Shackleton will likely be 5th choice front-rower and second choice central back-row (Hindy's position).

Anyway, all these stats tell a whole bunch of stories and I'm not going to analyse all of them for you. I'm not your f**king mother.

 

[IFR33K]

Poupou, do you have a life????????

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Poupou, do you have a life????????

I'm on leave. I start work on Monday.

Until then I'm bumming around at home unpacking boxes and going out of my mind with anticipation for NRL season 2011.

Did you really need to be such a c**k about it?

 

[perverse]

it's a pretty brilliant post and stat analysis. well in, Poupou, some amongst the LU community appreciate a big f**koff essay. i'm guilty of the odd one myself.

the one relevant stat i can see that you've omitted is Cayless' total workload (total metres per game, total hitups per game, etc). a large workload increase over that period would somewhat explain his decline in other areas... although i don't believe there is a significant increase in his workload it is certainly relevant if you want to show the full picture.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

it's a pretty brilliant post and stat analysis. well in, Poupou, some amongst the LU community appreciate a big f**koff essay. i'm guilty of the odd one myself.

Thanks mate.

the one relevant stat i can see that you've omitted is Cayless' total workload (total metres per game, total hitups per game, etc). a large workload increase over that period would somewhat explain his decline in other areas... although i don't believe there is a significant increase in his workload it is certainly relevant if you want to show the full picture.

Exactly right. One reason Fui has been able to be so devastating in attack is because he's had the two Nathans carrying a lot of his defensive workload.

Cayless hasn't had such an increase in his workload as you say, but it was already high to start with. His numbers for tackles and carries per minute are surely up there with any other front-rower in the game. Quite impressive for a 32 year old.

 

[IFR33K]

I'm on leave. I start work on Monday


Until then I'm bumming around at home unpacking boxes and going out of my mind with anticipation for NRL season 2011.

Did you really need to be such a c**k about it?

Have you ever considered anger management classes

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Have you ever considered anger management classes

I'm not angry mate.

Maybe I need anomie management classes?

 

[Maroubra Eel]

Poupou what a poster. Love your statistical analysis. You could get a job as David Middleton, that's if you're not already him.

 

[The EELiminator]

maybe mort's best position isnt in the halves but i hope and believe that all the hard work he is doing will be rewarded somehow in the future

 

[Poupou Escobar]

You could get a job as David Middleton, that's if you're not already him.

All the stats say I'm not.

maybe mort's best position isnt in the halves but i hope and believe that all the hard work he is doing will be rewarded somehow in the future

I just hope we find a halfback, and it's looking like it might have to be one of the kids already at the club.

 

[mrpwnd]

I think it's fair to say most halfbacks, particularly young ones go through this phase.

Sandow was absolute ass in 09, Pearce also took a massive hit in his confidence after the origin series. For what it's worth, at least Morts isn't anywhere near the peak of his career yet, he has the mentality to improve so that's a good enough of a start you could ask of anyone.

Morts is a pretty sh*tty halfback, but granted he's more of a 5/8 + still physically weak for first grade we could be worse off. Personally I hope he starts in the 5/8 and competes regularly with Humble and we throw in one of the old has beens in the no. 7.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Morts is a pretty sh*tty halfback, but granted he's more of a 5/8 + still physically weak for first grade we could be worse off. Personally I hope he starts in the 5/8 and competes regularly with Humble and we throw in one of the old has beens in the no. 7.

I'd be happy with this. Casey McGuire maybe? Robson was dire last year, definitely worse than Morts (in attack anyway).

In '09 he was decent though so he might be able to be decent again.

And don't forget Brad Murray. If he gets weekend release he could still be a handy player for us. Might even be another '05 Tim Smith.

 

[Eels Dude]

I think it's fair to say most halfbacks, particularly young ones go through this phase.

Sandow was absolute ass in 09, Pearce also took a massive hit in his confidence after the origin series. For what it's worth, at least Morts isn't anywhere near the peak of his career yet, he has the mentality to improve so that's a good enough of a start you could ask of anyone.

Morts is a pretty sh*tty halfback, but granted he's more of a 5/8 + still physically weak for first grade we could be worse off. Personally I hope he starts in the 5/8 and competes regularly with Humble and we throw in one of the old has beens in the no. 7.

The question is, how long do you persevere with someone? Two... Three years? It's hard to tell how many opportunities you give for that player to perform. And the longer you do it the longer you're hampering the development of the next kid waiting in line for a shot. Tough job being a coach these days. Halfback is the most important position in the side. It's the link between the forwards and the backs. And you can't afford to persevere with a player in that position who just may not have what it takes.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The question is, how long do you persevere with someone? Two... Three years? It's hard to tell how many opportunities you give for that player to perform. And the longer you do it the longer you're hampering the development of the next kid waiting in line for a shot. Tough job being a coach these days. Halfback is the most important position in the side. It's the link between the forwards and the backs. And you can't afford to persevere with a player in that position who just may not have what it takes.

You persevere as long as you have no viable alternatives.

The coaching staff know who does and who doesn't have what it takes. It's just a matter of, as you say, how long it takes them to realise their potential.

With enough time Morts will be a first grader one day. But if he takes too long to develop we'll rightly replace him and he'll either end up at another club, or get a job and fade into park footy.

But honestly, he's got 'what it takes'. It's not a matter of if but when with Morts. Unfortunately the second tier comp isn't strong enough to develop young halves which is why there's so few good ones running around.

And that's why we're stuck with Morts. But if there was someone better you can guarantee Anderson would've tried him out last year. If there's someone better this year I'm certain Kearney will give him a shot.

But really, you're asking the kinds of questions the coaching staff will be able to answer and we can only speculate about. And the halfback isn't the "link between the forwards and the backs". It's not f**king 1972.

There's three 'backs' in the centre of the field and there's two 'forwards' out wide. 'Backs' and 'forwards' is outdated terminology.

Even 'halfback' and 'five-eighth' don't really mean anything anymore. They're just halves. One wears 6 and one wears 7 and they play on different sides of the field.

Anyway, Morts could get the arse this year and never play again. Keep your fingers crossed.