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Ken Irvine set to be dethroned?

Saxon

Bench
Messages
3,195
will depend on how the bunnies fare over the next 3-4 seasons. If you’re still pushing top 4 he is likely bag 15 tries a season but if you fall away that could drop dramatically. Once his contract is up it will likely be down to how close he is.

I still believe had Brett Morris not done his knee last season he would have gone close to the record. He would have finished 2021 on around 185-190, it’s likely a team like the Dragons would have given him a year or two to break the record.

Brett Stewart was another who would have been close had he not missed 2 years in his prime through injury. Would have got himself close enough that Manly may have just given him another 12 months to break the record.
Fair points.
And you could also argue that if slater hadn't missed the best part of two seasons with a buggered shoulder and two recos he would have got much closer than he did.
 

yobbo84

Coach
Messages
11,376
will depend on how the bunnies fare over the next 3-4 seasons. If you’re still pushing top 4 he is likely bag 15 tries a season but if you fall away that could drop dramatically. Once his contract is up it will likely be down to how close he is.

I still believe had Brett Morris not done his knee last season he would have gone close to the record. He would have finished 2021 on around 185-190, it’s likely a team like the Dragons would have given him a year or two to break the record.

Brett Stewart was another who would have been close had he not missed 2 years in his prime through injury. Would have got himself close enough that Manly may have just given him another 12 months to break the record.

Let's say we stay a 6th-10th positioned team this year, he's likely to score another 10 tries in 2022.

I think even in an average team he could score 12 tries a year for 4-5 years to break the record.

But at his strike rate, with his skills, and V'landys ball - even in an average side he's likely to score more than that. Fitness will be the key issue.

I do wonder how many tries some of these guys would've scored if the corner post wasn't out when they played!
 
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15,264
Let's say we stay a 6th-10th positioned team this year, he's likely to score another 10 tries in 2022.

I think even in an average team he could score 12 tries a year for 4-5 years to break the record.

But at his strike rate, with his skills, and V'landys ball - even in an average side he's likely to score more than that. Fitness will be the key issue.

I do wonder how many tries some of these guys would've scored if the corner post wasn't out when they played!

I agree with that, I think his tally when his current contract is up will decide it. If he can get himself close then someone will likely pick him up. If he’s got 30 or so tries to go then he will likely struggle. He will be 32 and it’s likely his best attribute (pace) will have faded, he could be off to England at that stage.
 

yobbo84

Coach
Messages
11,376
AJ is second-to-none in how he positions himself to receive the ball in space.

He is slight framed so can't just power over the line like other wingers. He has dropped in pace a bit since his previous hammy issues - he's not an Addo-Carr or Saab. His number 1 skill is that he just always manages to get himself in the right place to receive the final pass. His timing is amazing - he always hits the ball at speed, often changing his position as the ball is in flight.

He barely ever comes in when he should stay out, or overruns a pass, or holds the ball in the wrong hand when grounding, etc. He runs perfect lines and is a terrific finisher. He does just 'fall over the line' sometimes - as do all wingers - but he is there to catch the ball to score, when other wingers are often out of position.

AJ is not just the end result of our left side attack over the past few years; he is a huge part of it.

If he stays fit I think he'll get there.
 

yobbo84

Coach
Messages
11,376
AJ has now moved to 157 career tries, 11th all time, and 1 behind Josh Morris in 10th position.

He has scored 134 tries from 122 starts as a winger.

Unbelievably, he started the 2020 season on 'just' 83 tries - he has scored 74 tries from his past 59 matches.

He is 55 tries from Irvine's record, and 33 tries behind Slater in 2nd.
 

BunniesMan

Immortal
Messages
33,738
AJ is the most underrated winger of the modern era. Most simpletons don't have the footy iq to appreciate skills unless someone is 120kg or can do 100m in 10 seconds. High IQ players can produce simply from being better and faster mentally than everyone else. AJ knows the lines, the angles, the timing. That is why his try scoring rate has gotten even better with experience and as he has slowed a touch.

Barring major injury he will get there.
 

AlwaysGreen

Post Whore
Messages
51,053
AJ is the most underrated winger of the modern era. Most simpletons don't have the footy iq to appreciate skills unless someone is 120kg or can do 100m in 10 seconds. High IQ players can produce simply from being better and faster mentally than everyone else. AJ knows the lines, the angles, the timing. That is why his try scoring rate has gotten even better with experience and as he has slowed a touch.

Barring major injury he will get there.
Is he in Mensa like you?
 

Nealo 12

First Grade
Messages
5,376
AJ is the most underrated winger of the modern era. Most simpletons don't have the footy iq to appreciate skills unless someone is 120kg or can do 100m in 10 seconds. High IQ players can produce simply from being better and faster mentally than everyone else. AJ knows the lines, the angles, the timing. That is why his try scoring rate has gotten even better with experience and as he has slowed a touch.

Barring major injury he will get there.
Or he just falls over the line like most winger’s 😂
 

Fufu Andronez

First Grade
Messages
8,464
If he played on the left wing back in 2018 and 2019, he'd be a lot closer. Robert Jennings scored 20 odd tries in that Seibold year FFS. AJ probably could have got 40
 
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