Melbourne Cup

[Tim Brasher]

I thought it was about time to start a thread on the race that stops the nation.
My favourite runners at the present time are;

Makybe Diva- I dont really nnd an explanation here. The horse has won the race the previous two years and really looks to have come back in career best form this preparation. The weight will be the horses' major rival but Glen Boss will give the horse every chance

Leica Falcon- The best Cup trial out of the horses contesting the Caulfield Cup. Got hammered around the turn but recomposed and finished off the reac in style. Wood love to see its sectionals for the last 400m. Has no weight againin the cup and looks to be a natural stayer

Eye Popper- Gutsy perfomance in the CAulfield Cup when almost stole victory after racing three wide the whole way. Damian Oliver gave the jockey advice before the race yesterday and hopefully he can get in the jockeys ear and tell him to get near the fence... Beat Makybe Diva in the Tenno Sho in Japan this year carrying 2KG more than Diva and will have a big weight advantage this time around

Portland SInga- Good run in the CC and won the Brisbane Cup earlier in the year. Much improved race horse and Neville McBurney is an outstanding trainer for distance horses

 

[Moffo]

I personally think that Eye popper would've busted a blood vessel in that run. Can't see it doing it again

Plastered for mine

 

[Tim Brasher]

I was really impresses with its run..I did not whether to take its form beating Makybe Diva in Japan with a grain of salt or not... But after yesterday's result the horse is a real contender. If the jockey could have had the horse in a better position, I have no doubt it would have won the CC... Im quite keen on the $11 @Fixed Odds

 

[Macca_]

Not sure what was wrong with the other Melb Cup thread...

Re Makybe (I wrote in the other one) -

I have been on her all her career. I'd love to see her win a 3rd in a row, would be great but I can't see it. Sometimes you have to know when to get off...

Last 2 years she has been set for the Cup. Aimed at peaking in the first Tuesday in November over 3200m 5th up from a spell.

This time in she is set to peak over 2000m 4th up in the Cox Plate. The Cup preps have been timed to perfection and I see it no different this time round.

She'll still be hitting the Cup 5th up this time in. My worry is that it's only 9 days after she has been set for the 2000m run. There is no doubting her class, but the condition and lung capacity could well come into it. Ad to that she needs to re set the weight carrying record she made last year in carrying the 58kg. It is a big ask, as good as she is.

The owners and trainer have always looked after her best interest and they may even feel it's not the right thing if they feel condition wise she isn't ready to do it.

As I said, I'd love to see her do it. And if my horse isn't the winner, I'm hoping it is her. But I do have my concerns about backing her. In saying that I had some on that promotion they had early when they gave punters 21/1 about her and Vinnie Roe. I figured she'd won me that much that it was worth putting some back in just incase...

And re Leica Falcon. It is 40th on OOE and they are not running it again before the Cup. It won't be there. Next year for it.

 

[Tim Brasher]

I think the horse qualified from its CC finish. I made note the racecallers made a comment along those lines on channel 7

 

[lockyno1]

Makebe Diva for mine.

By the way Moffo you have just given Eye Popper a chance!

 

[Foz]

Not sure what was wrong with the other Melb Cup thread...

Re Makybe (I wrote in the other one) -

I have been on her all her career. I'd love to see her win a 3rd in a row, would be great but I can't see it. Sometimes you have to know when to get off...

Last 2 years she has been set for the Cup. Aimed at peaking in the first Tuesday in November over 3200m 5th up from a spell.

This time in she is set to peak over 2000m 4th up in the Cox Plate. The Cup preps have been timed to perfection and I see it no different this time round.

She'll still be hitting the Cup 5th up this time in. My worry is that it's only 9 days after she has been set for the 2000m run. There is no doubting her class, but the condition and lung capacity could well come into it. Ad to that she needs to re set the weight carrying record she made last year in carrying the 58kg. It is a big ask, as good as she is.

The owners and trainer have always looked after her best interest and they may even feel it's not the right thing if they feel condition wise she isn't ready to do it.

As I said, I'd love to see her do it. And if my horse isn't the winner, I'm hoping it is her. But I do have my concerns about backing her. In saying that I had some on that promotion they had early when they gave punters 21/1 about her and Vinnie Roe. I figured she'd won me that much that it was worth putting some back in just incase...

And re Leica Falcon. It is 40th on OOE and they are not running it again before the Cup. It won't be there. Next year for it.

I think you'll find running in the first 5 of the Caulfield Cup makes the horse qualify for the Melbourne Cup.
Leica Falcon ran 5th.
39th in order may be a problem.(Mummify was in front of him)
There are another half a dozen horses in there that wont run already.
A lot will drop out between now and November 1.
If he gets in the field and gets even luck I reckon he'll win.
Use those discretionary powers VRC.

 

[Macca_]

Leica Falcon is 39th in Order of Entry. Running 5th does not improve that.

Snippet from The Australian (on foxsports) -

Trainer Richard Freyer will have to decide whether to gamble on discretionary powers, or attrition, getting Leica Falcon from 39th on the elimination order into the field - or try to win an exemption from the ballot in Saturday week's $250,000 Saab Quality (2500m) at Flemington.
http://foxsports.news.com.au/story/0,8659,16938240-32343,00.html

Discretionary powers are saved for overseas runners, or so they seem to be. There is 20 starters, so they'd need 19 to pull out over the next 13 days to get in if they don't try and get in via the SAAB. I personally don't like backing horses that take an extra run in a prep to make a field, puts them over the top for mine.

I agree, it would be a huge chance and I'd be having some on. But it is very unlikely it will be a starter. Get on for next year

 

[Nuffs]

wont win. probably wont even make the field

heard this morning that all goldolphin runners have been withdrawn. anyone heard anything? maybe the tracks are too hard again

 

[Foz]

All Goldolphin runners are going home and K.McEvoy will ride Leica Falcon.

 

[Nuffs]

thanks foz!

i hate the internationals as i can never line the form up. although i did back persian punch for a bit a few years back. was my biggest bet ever back then as i was only 17 and just the day before had finished my HSC

eye popper's run was sensational. can he back up? loves the firm tracks and the 3200m suits down to the ground. looking good

 

[Macca_]

I'm hoping Vourvay pulls up well after that gut busters. Ridden cold and off the pace like normal she'd still be a chance. Not as confident now though. Still dumbfounded at the ride and the tactics in the CC.

Might have something on Vinnie Roe too. 4th and 2nd in past 2 years. Meets MD a lot better at the weights.

Agree re Eye Popper. He is better over the 2 mile. Was a poor ride on the weekend too!

Was a great cup trial from Leica Falcon. Was similar to MD's big run last year in the CC. No doubt he can win if he gets in the field. Going to need luck to get there though.

 

[Macca_]

Another thing to re LF...

There will be a couple of horses that jump in order of entry by winnin a race over the next 10 days. If they happen to be below him he is pushed even further down and needs another 1 or 2 to pull out.

Vic Derby winner would be 1...

 

[Foz]

Just said 13 out of those 39 are gone and another 6 doubtful.
Leica Falcon would be 27th with another 6 doubtful.
McEvoy booked to ride and things are looking good.

Eye Popper will meet Makybe Diva 4kgs better for beating it home in Japan.
How many kgs is a jockey worth?

 

[Macca_]

MD didn't travel well to Japan. Never handled the tracks either. I can't read into that form with regards to Eye Popper beating her there...

I have my doubts about MD winning it this year for the reasons stated above.

 

[Nuffs]

MD got beat by the travel and by the track. a track much like the firm caulfield track on saturday

i wen through the order of entry and have falcon at 30th. let's say 32nd to account for SAAB and Derby winners. 8 drop out. am i right in saying around 5 dropped out after Derby day last year? he's pretty close

 

[Macca_]

Yep will be touch and go for a run... Will get better odds than the 6/1 on race day too. Especially if MD lines up on the day.

 

[Macca_]

Been thinking a bit about it and really hoping Leica Falcon gets the run. Might have some doubles into it this weekend and hope he gets a run.

 

[stuke]

with Godolphin pulling there horses out does this also mean F Dettori won't be gracing us with his presence?

 

[Moffo]

hopefully not

i hope that frightening gets a run. I know it gets knocked a bit but over the 3200...id just like to see it

i think it'd go ok