Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[Perth Red]

Except they announced the total deal not the annual figure

$4.5b. Take out Telstra and it is around $3.8b that is total up until 2031.

It usually doesn't matter as much because deals are announced in the last 12 months, They can normally just keep escalating on the current rate not the case here

This was announced 3 years out and goes for 7 years instead of 5. As such the % of growth to allow for inflation is higher.

They always announce the total deal and the yearly avg amount.

How does going from an avg of $416mill (2017) a year to $423mill (2023) a year to $550mill a year (2025) within 8 years have anything to do with inflation?

We went $380mill (2018) a year to $402mill (2023) a year, again no correlation to inflation

Inflation is around 5-6% in that period, the deals are announced as an avg and the actuals are paid at a 2-3% increase each year from a lower rate than announced to give that avg.

So back in the real world, once again!, our current tv deal taking out $5mill radio in the ch9 deal and assuming the announced $402mill is cash and contra with around $30mill contra value a year is:

Cash TV avg $367mill

Actual cash revenue realised:
2023 $353mill
2024 $360mill
2025 $367mill
2026 $374mill
2027 $381.5mill

 

[Iamback]

That’s a fair point

but extra content Improves the nrl bargaining position

realistically it might take five to ten years for the nrl to get what it’s really worth

any rugby league fan would look at those figures and say the afl isn’t doing so well

What is it worth is a hard one. We don't know what NRL fans spend on Subs, Also need to look at the $/min formula.

Remembering the no ads in play limits the money that can come in.

 

[Perth Red]

What is it worth is a hard one. We don't know what NRL fans spend on Subs, Also need to look at the $/min formula.

Remembering the no ads in play limits the money that can come in.

Its worth what someone will pay. AFL has traditionally had better deals by 10-20% due to having a more national metro reach, more ad breaks, more Australian teams and recently more games. The counterbalance for NRL is in the higher audiences, NZ reach and SOO.

This current deal sees that difference equate to more than 40% difference 2025-2027. The main reason for this jump is competitive bidding. Get three people fighting at the auction desperate for the product and you're laughing.

The challenge for NRL now is to get team 18 in and ensure there are bidders willing to fight over the rights. Then come 2028 we might pull that 40% value gap back down to 10-20% again.

A interesting question re the advertising. Would an advertiser rather more ads to fewer people or less ads to more people?

PTV is much simpler, its revenue is predominantly driven by subscriptions. Bigger audiences = more subscribers = more value. Or at least should!

 

[Wb1234]

Its worth what someone will pay. AFL has traditionally had better deals by 10-20% due to having a more national metro reach, more ad breaks, more Australian teams and recently more games. The counterbalance for NRL is in the higher audiences, NZ reach and SOO.

This current deal sees that difference equate to more than 40% difference 2025-2027. The main reason for this jump is competitive bidding. Get three people fighting at the auction desperate for the product and you're laughing.

The challenge for NRL now is to get team 18 in and ensure there are bidders willing to fight over the rights. Then come 2028 we might pull that 40% value gap back down to 10-20% again.

A interesting question re the advertising. Would an advertiser rather more ads to fewer people or less ads to more people?

PTV is much simpler, its revenue is predominantly driven by subscriptions. Bigger audiences = more subscribers = more value. Or at least should!

Not before Rupert Murdoch came along no

and for 15 years they half owned the game

foxtel has never paid close to what nrl is worth but might next time due to Stan

if they do I wonder what you will complain about when the nrl deal beats the afl deal

 

[Perth Red]

Not before Rupert Murdoch came along no

and for 15 years they half owned the game

foxtel has never paid close to what nrl is worth but might next time due to Stan

if they do I wonder what you will complain about when the nrl deal beats the afl deal

Prior to independence
NRL 2007-12 $83.3mil a year
NRL 2002-2006 $34million a year

Cant find anything before that on tv deal value


TV will only ever pay what they can get away with, the fact we keep letting them screw us shows a decidedly lack of faith in ourselves. But we shouldnt get too giddy, AFL ONLY realised $550mill due to competitive bidding. I suspect if only Ch7/Fox had been interested they would have likely got under $500mill.

The trick is to get other parties interested and believing they have a realistic shot at taking the rights. Having missed out on AFL at the very least you'd think Stan and Paramount will go hard for them. That at the very least will drive Fox to have to pay big to keep NRL. Presuming of course they think its worth doing so.

Without competition I predict a deal around $450mill, with I predict we could match or even surpass AFL's $550mill. Having a plan for 20 teams in the tv deal period that includes Perth and Adelaide would certainly help.

 

[Iamback]

Its worth what someone will pay. AFL has traditionally had better deals by 10-20% due to having a more national metro reach, more ad breaks, more Australian teams and recently more games. The counterbalance for NRL is in the higher audiences, NZ reach and SOO.

This current deal sees that difference equate to more than 40% difference 2025-2027. The main reason for this jump is competitive bidding. Get three people fighting at the auction desperate for the product and you're laughing.

The challenge for NRL now is to get team 18 in and ensure there are bidders willing to fight over the rights. Then come 2028 we might pull that 40% value gap back down to 10-20% again.

A interesting question re the advertising. Would an advertiser rather more ads to fewer people or less ads to more people?

PTV is much simpler, its revenue is predominantly driven by subscriptions. Bigger audiences = more subscribers = more value. Or at least should!

Again though the difference isn't that great.

What is AFL $550m?

2023 is $400m for NRL. Whether it is cash or the whole thing is an unknown.

To take this deal 2023-2027 and the next 2028-2032. You are adding $108m minimum to allow for inflation. If that is cash only as per AFR then it is infront, if not then when you add the 9th game then it certainly clears $550m.

 

[Perth Red]

Again though the difference isn't that great.

What is AFL $550m?

2023 is $400m for NRL. Whether it is cash or the whole thing is an unknown.

To take this deal 2023-2027 and the next 2028-2032. You are adding $108m minimum to allow for inflation. If that is cash only as per AFR then it is infront, if not then when you add the 9th game then it certainly clears $550m.

Nope!
Actual NRL cash revenue realised for tv alone:
2023 $353mill
2024 $360mill
2025 $367mill
2026 $374mill
2027 $381.5mill

So in 2025 the NRL will get $367 mill cash. AFl will get $499mill cash

AFL cash from tv alone is probably an avg of around $530mill. So in the corresponding deal period they will get in the region of:

2025 $499mill
2026 $509mill
2027 $519.5 mill

NRL
2025 $367mill
2026 $374mill
2027 $381.5mill

Total cash difference for the 3 years
132+135+138 = $405mill

Maybe you consider $400mill over 3 years not much cash, but I beg to differ!

 

[taipan]

Prior to independence
NRL 2007-12 $83.3mil a year
NRL 2002-2006 $34million a year

Cant find anything before that on tv deal value


TV will only ever pay what they can get away with, the fact we keep letting them screw us shows a decidedly lack of faith in ourselves. But we shouldnt get too giddy, AFL ONLY realised $550mill due to competitive bidding. I suspect if only Ch7/Fox had been interested they would have likely got under $500mill.

The trick is to get other parties interested and believing they have a realistic shot at taking the rights. Having missed out on AFL at the very least you'd think Stan and Paramount will go hard for them. That at the very least will drive Fox to have to pay big to keep NRL. Presuming of course they think its worth doing so.

Without competition I predict a deal around $450mill, with I predict we could match or even surpass AFL's $550mill. Having a plan for 20 teams in the tv deal period that includes Perth and Adelaide would certainly help.

The difference last time for the AFL 7 was in boots and all , and 9 also extremely interested and of course lurking in the wings 10.
For the NRL deal 9 was in but they are never over the top like 7 is with the AFL ,7 was only interested in cherry picking ,10 who knows?
Taking that into account, the timing, the revenue from ads due to 4 qtrs, national involvement, number of staff needed to run code teams, the fact 7 owned by a WA tycoon (AFL fan),how we continue to try to draw comparisons is beyond me, when it comes to TV deals, no of teams/games.
The codes play with the cards they are dealt with.
And we are sh*ttting it in with TV ratings which will help no end for the next contract.

 

[Wb1234]

Nope!
Actual NRL cash revenue realised for tv alone:
2023 $353mill
2024 $360mill
2025 $367mill
2026 $374mill
2027 $381.5mill

So in 2025 the NRL will get $367 mill cash. AFl will get $499mill cash

AFL cash from tv alone is probably an avg of around $530mill. So in the corresponding deal period they will get in the region of:

2025 $499mill
2026 $509mill
2027 $519.5 mill

NRL
2025 $367mill
2026 $374mill
2027 $381.5mill

Total cash difference for the 3 years
132+135+138 = $405mill

Maybe you consider $400mill over 3 years not much cash, but I beg to differ!

I really hope when the nrl gets that amazing tv deal next time you show how the passion in discussing it you do the afl one

 

[Phil McGrawhan]

I really hope when the nrl gets that amazing tv deal next time you show how the passion in discussing it you do the afl one

Not a chance
every thread that even slightly involves a comparison with Aflol you can bet Gil’s love child will be praising AFL over & over while shitting on RL from a great height.

 

[Perth Red]

I really hope when the nrl gets that amazing tv deal next time you show how the passion in discussing it you do the afl one

The day we finally get a better deal I’ll be celebrating with the rest of you. But no point hiding todays realities.

 

[BlueandGold]

Such good news for the next broadcast deal.


The NRLW will enter a brand new era this season after the announcement of a ground-breaking broadcast deal for the competition.

With 10 clubs now in the expanded NRLW, Nine has secured a deal to show every match live and free on the TV network and 9Now.

Nine's coverage will include a new NRLW production unit with over 100 hours of live coverage, the dedicated weekly magazine show NRLWrap to be shown on Nine and 9Now along with a weekly NRLW podcast.

Nine's commentary team for the NRLW season and Women's State of Origin will feature former Jillaroos Ruan Sims and Allana Ferguson, hosts Emma Lawrence and Danika Mason, defending NRLW premiership captain Millie Boyle along with support from the entire Wide World of Sports rugby league team.

Nine's game-changing broadcast deal for NRLW

Every game of the season live and free

wwos.nine.com.au

 

[Iamback]

Such good news for the next broadcast deal.


The NRLW will enter a brand new era this season after the announcement of a ground-breaking broadcast deal for the competition.

With 10 clubs now in the expanded NRLW, Nine has secured a deal to show every match live and free on the TV network and 9Now.

Nine's coverage will include a new NRLW production unit with over 100 hours of live coverage, the dedicated weekly magazine show NRLWrap to be shown on Nine and 9Now along with a weekly NRLW podcast.

Nine's commentary team for the NRLW season and Women's State of Origin will feature former Jillaroos Ruan Sims and Allana Ferguson, hosts Emma Lawrence and Danika Mason, defending NRLW premiership captain Millie Boyle along with support from the entire Wide World of Sports rugby league team.

Nine's game-changing broadcast deal for NRLW

Every game of the season live and free

wwos.nine.com.au

Getting there, Just need to have the season outside of the Mens and they nailed it.

 

[Perth Red]

What time will the NRLW Saturday game be on?

 

[Steel Saints]

Getting there, Just need to have the season outside of the Mens and they nailed it.

I'd love to see a stand alone NRLW finals series either in October or November. Now there is ten teams, it is building nicely.

 

[BlueandGold]

What time will the NRLW Saturday game be on?

Out of the 5 games a week we have 2 clashes on Saturday.

Which is okay.

No NRL game on FTA on saturday, gives people without Pay tv something to watch.

Draw

The 2025 Telstra Premiership draw, NRL draw, live NRL scores; results, fixture, schedule, State of Origin draw, Pre-season Challenge draw, Pacific Championships, Hostplus Cup draw and NSW Cup draw.

www.nrl.com

 

[Iamback]

I'd love to see a stand alone NRLW finals series either in October or November. Now there is ten teams, it is building nicely.

Take Round 1. Cowboys, Parra and Storm all play on Sat in the Mens. So potential viewers are lost.

I do love the stand alone programming. It will build the profile up

 

[Iamback]

Nope!
Actual NRL cash revenue realised for tv alone:
2023 $353mill
2024 $360mill
2025 $367mill
2026 $374mill
2027 $381.5mill

So in 2025 the NRL will get $367 mill cash. AFl will get $499mill cash

AFL cash from tv alone is probably an avg of around $530mill. So in the corresponding deal period they will get in the region of:

2025 $499mill
2026 $509mill
2027 $519.5 mill

NRL
2025 $367mill
2026 $374mill
2027 $381.5mill

Total cash difference for the 3 years
132+135+138 = $405mill

Maybe you consider $400mill over 3 years not much cash, but I beg to differ!

this is where you let yourself down. You always compare cash v Cash and contra

Where did I put cash in mine?

At the original presser Gil said it was $4b cash. Take out the Telstra money lets say $500m.

That leaves $3.5b over 7 years as TV money.

So that is starting at $475m or so.

If Roy Masters and AFR are correct and the NRL has reported cash then that will end at $460m... That is without the add ons.

Although likely what happens is they will go early with the 9th game.

Starting at 2026 instead of 2028. That even if $400m is total, Then the cash will be similar because of the 9th game, NRLW etc.

So either way you and others have whinged incorrectly

 

[Wb1234]

How many women’s games do you guys watch ngl mines zero. It’s like nsw cup or qld cup I have no interest in watching it

 

[Iamback]

How many women’s games do you guys watch ngl mines zero. It’s like nsw cup or qld cup I have no interest in watching it

I have no team in it so I watch sometimes but often games are on when Panthers are playing