Next TV rights deal part 2

[TheRam]

The NRL is a very different beast now to what it was even 10 years ago. Smith has done a heck of a job into turning it into a real corporate powerhouse.

I have a friend who works there who is originally from Melbourne, and she told me that the change in the place has been pretty dramatic over the past few years and that it's really surprised her just how much every structure they have in terms of corporate governance has improved things.

The tweet put out by the NRL's new media account points to this in my view. Their very cool and collected message that they were in no rush and only care about the best interests of the game is frankly not a message we'd have had out of the NRL in the early 00s.

I grant you that, but still way short of where it needs to be.

 

[El Diablo]

Chuckles stinking up another thread

 

[Perth Red]

If Optus are serious you'd hope we'd be in the market for around $1-1.2billion for the pay tv/digital rights. This could and likely would include simu cast of all games. The ninth game I don't believe will happen, not one person has mentioned it from any side. We would then need to factor in the loss of income from the FTA deal for simulcast agreement.

AFL 5 year equivalent got just under $1.1 billion from Fox though that includes an on sell of one game to a FTA channel for 9 live games with 3.5 simulcast (+1 if they decide to sell one on)

Telstra $250mill without naming rights (worth $50million)

I guess if Optus get the rights they are effectively getting the pay tv and digital components added together as NRL wouldn't be able to sell digital rights to Telstra.

best case scenario
FTA Ch9 for 4 live games $925mill (- the simulcast reduction)
Fox $1billion for 9 live games, 5 exclusive
Telstra $300mill inc naming rights

We really should be aiming for over the $2bill mark

If Optus seriously want it they are going to have to stump up well over $1billion plus the production costs and I have doubts they would, though depends how serious they are about relaunching themselves as a multi media provider not just predominantly mobile phones?

 

[El Diablo]

whatever happens i can guarantee you won't be happy

even if they lobbed a team in your backyard

 

[Perth Red]

whatever happens i can guarantee you won't be happy

even if they lobbed a team in your backyard

hey ho the troll is back

 

[El Diablo]

you never left

 

[DC_fan]

We may have to watch the footy on Fletch TV

 

[Perth Red]

No probs, got fibre to the house! Wonder what the subscription fee would be? Probably a damn sight cheaper than I'm paying Fox now. I'm the type of customer Optus will be eyeing up. Got everything bundled with Telstra just for ease; high speed internet, fox, 2 mobiles and home phone. Getting NRL would def have me shifting everything over to them if they did a good deal.

 

[BuffaloRules]

Foxtel is a dying medium.

The NRL will either be cutting them loose this time or the next.

The benefit of doing it this time is that it might have repurcussions for the AFL who will still be stapled to Murdoch's corpse in a rapidly expanding NSW/QLD vacuum.

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

RaiderDave is completely on the money here regarding Smith. And all of this talk about having to get back a rugby league person is a nonsense. The best thing that ever happened to the NRL was having a complete outsider with balls and brains do the best thing he could for "his team". In a way, isn't that a true rugby league person anyway?

Back to rights, Optus is unfolding very nicely. I expect by the New Year $2billion will be starting to appear in News articles. Judging from the taciturn tweet from NRL media they are going to be very happy to keep staring at their cards for a while and let News slowly bleed.

The best outcome could be to actually go with another player. Imagine if News had a loss as opposed to the threat of one. My Foxtel subscription would be just another of the many around here that would be handed back quicker than you can say "I won't be needed this Mr Murdoch, but don't worry sir AFL has always been your preferred game..."

As much as id love to see the Murdoch empire begin to collapse, im more interested in RL getting the best possible price.

If this means sticking with Fox then fine, but Fox need to pay market price and then so for the rights

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

Obviously they are holding out, but there in lies the problem, they are being significantly low balled and unless something major happens to change that, I think the rights will go up slightly by about $100-200m which would push it at best to $1.9B for everything and the loss of Saturday FTA coverage.

The only way around this is for Optus to really go hard, unlikely, and offer around $1B for just the remaining 4 games. I can't see them or anyone else doing this, can you?

You need to remember that Fox is bidding blind...

Without F&L rights, the ARLC can just say "Optus and others have made bids and we are considering them. What is your offer?". With the EPL thing fresh in their memorise and knowing how valuable NRL is/how damaging it would be to lose, Fox need to be certain of retaining the rights.

On top of this, Fox will be very aware of how cold their relationship is with the ARLC. So if they offer something comparable to Optus, it is concevable that other factors (dislike of Fox) will come into play.

On top of THIS, Fox only broadcast to people that are already fans. It is not a platform that will grow support, it is the place that the ARLC go to for a payday. Again, if the Fox offer is comparable to others, the ARLC might choose to invest in broader coverage that could leader to a bigger deal later over a flat dollar amount now.

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

If Optus are serious you'd hope we'd be in the market for around $1-1.2billion for the pay tv/digital rights. This could and likely would include simu cast of all games. The ninth game I don't believe will happen, not one person has mentioned it from any side. We would then need to factor in the loss of income from the FTA deal for simulcast agreement.

Woooow!!!! i had no idea that you were part of the team negotiating the deal.

Ive always wanted to know, what at the tables made of?? is it mahogany? i bet its mahogany.

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

You are correct, it has nothing to do with News.

The Simulcasting reduction will be thrashed out between the NRL and 9.

Once the NRL and 9 have come to a agreement on how much the reduction will be then its time to make FOX pay for simulcasting which will not be cheap.

News are trying to make it look like they are in negotiations with the NRL and 9 and still have power in the negotiating process.

They dont and we know it.

Im sure it was stated that the simulacst reduction was ALREADY written into the deal.

$925m > $800m ($25m a year)

 

[colly]

DC COWBOY

Optus will launch a eMBMB or LTE broadcast. This means HD quality tv broadcast over the 3g LTE network

This will be the future very soon.
You will be able to stream content (ie NRL) to your HD TV using the 3g ( LTE) mobile network.
This year on the Saturday night game with all the kids online the game got unwactable due to slow internet speeds I HAVE ASDL 2plus . Also it counted towards my data allowance.
We need another way to broadcast video that can be reliable enough to bank on watching.


By 2 years now this will be up and running. So the streaming rights can be broken up to
1 mobile video tablets streaming devices
2 internet streaming
3 LTE 3g stream to mobile/ AND HD TV via a dongle
Note these should be sold separately/or number 3 3g is not wrapped up with 1.




http://connectedworld.com/high-def-video-to-tv-screens/


Sequans Communications, www.sequans.com, is providing its LTE chipset technology to D-Link Corp., www.dlink.com, a global provider of home and office connectivity solutions, for the D-Link eMBMS TV Dongle, a consumer LTE Broadcast dongle that enables users to receive high-definition video content over LTE eMBMS, for display on their TV screens.
LTE Broadcast or eMBMS (evolved multimedia broadcast multicast service) is an advanced capability of LTE whereby multimedia content can be streamed to multiple users simultaneously. The eMBMS TV Dongle has been developed by D-Link in anticipation of future LTE Broadcast service launches by LTE operators.



Who are LTE operarotors they will Optus Telstra and Vodaphone who have a 3G network.
http://www.lightreading.com/video/mobile-video/verizon-plans-mobile-tv-service-in-2015/d/d-id/710783
Mobile TV is just one of several video-focused services Verizon has planned for next year. It is also planning to launch LTE Broadcast, based on eMBMS (evolved Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Services) standards capabilities, to broadcast live video over LTE. McAdam said the efficiency of a multicast network will also help it support its mobile TV offer. (See Verizon's Multicast LTE Video to Arrive in 2015.)
So it is happening NOW in the USA and content will be required when launched in Australia.
This makes it tricky for the negotiations , besides the argument that foxtel needs nrl but lack of a real competitor to Broadcast pay tv allows them (foxtel )to be is soon to hard edged in negotiations.


http://www.lightreading.com/video/mobile-video/verizon-plans-mobile-tv-service-in-2015/d/d-id/710783


Espoo, Finland ? Nokia Networks is pioneering the technology needed to efficiently use LTE for nationwide TV broadcasting. The company is working with a range of partners* in the world?s first field trial of wide-area TV broadcasting using a single LTE frequency within UHF spectrum - See more at: http://networks.nokia.com/ru/news-e...national-tv-broadcasting#sthash.skQPgXXe.dpuf.

 

[babyg]

If Optus are serious you'd hope we'd be in the market for around $1-1.2billion for the pay tv/digital rights. This could and likely would include simu cast of all games. The ninth game I don't believe will happen, not one person has mentioned it from any side. We would then need to factor in the loss of income from the FTA deal for simulcast agreement.

AFL 5 year equivalent got just under $1.1 billion from Fox though that includes an on sell of one game to a FTA channel for 9 live games with 3.5 simulcast (+1 if they decide to sell one on)

Telstra $250mill without naming rights (worth $50million)

I guess if Optus get the rights they are effectively getting the pay tv and digital components added together as NRL wouldn't be able to sell digital rights to Telstra.

best case scenario
FTA Ch9 for 4 live games $925mill (- the simulcast reduction)
Fox $1billion for 9 live games, 5 exclusive
Telstra $300mill inc naming rights

We really should be aiming for over the $2bill mark

If Optus seriously want it they are going to have to stump up well over $1billion plus the production costs and I have doubts they would, though depends how serious they are about relaunching themselves as a multi media provider not just predominantly mobile phones?

well it's pretty much now or never if they're gong to do it.

 

[Last Week]

If Optus are serious you'd hope we'd be in the market for around $1-1.2billion for the pay tv/digital rights. This could and likely would include simu cast of all games. The ninth game I don't believe will happen, not one person has mentioned it from any side. We would then need to factor in the loss of income from the FTA deal for simulcast agreement.

AFL 5 year equivalent got just under $1.1 billion from Fox though that includes an on sell of one game to a FTA channel for 9 live games with 3.5 simulcast (+1 if they decide to sell one on)

Telstra $250mill without naming rights (worth $50million)

I guess if Optus get the rights they are effectively getting the pay tv and digital components added together as NRL wouldn't be able to sell digital rights to Telstra.

best case scenario
FTA Ch9 for 4 live games $925mill (- the simulcast reduction)
Fox $1billion for 9 live games, 5 exclusive
Telstra $300mill inc naming rights

We really should be aiming for over the $2bill mark

If Optus seriously want it they are going to have to stump up well over $1billion plus the production costs and I have doubts they would, though depends how serious they are about relaunching themselves as a multi media provider not just predominantly mobile phones?

Just like Rothfield. Setting a bench mark and condemning them to failure before anything is confirmed or even released.

From a fans and clubs perspective, greater dollars is definitely the measuring stick of how good the deal is. But it's not the be all, end all. Optus getting the deal will lead to them strengthening their own business, but also weaken their biggest and stronger competitor significantly.

With Optus, the value of the product they can offer would not be worth close to Foxtels with their current content. But the value of their products would increase in every way with the NRL. They know that and they will pay for NRL rights at a loss if they believe the investment is good for them long term.

They would not only gain more subscribers, but they would weaken it's biggest competitor in digital, payTV and mobile platforms. Their own halo affect for their products would increase in value.

Optus might not be able to offer a dollar amount like Fox can, but they can offer other things which may sway the NRL towards them. As a hypothetical, imagine an "NRL game pass" style app available in Australia, with the same options like NFL game pass has, but available to be used in the home markets (Optus mobile customers don't consume data with said app). Optus might be willing to do this as a compromise to less cash. This extra exposure is of great value to the game. Imagine, every game could be watched at any time, in any market via an app.

Weakening Foxtel and strengthening Optus could in future, create further competition between the two for sporting content, which undoubtedly increases the value of sports rights in future negotiations.

Imagine how much stronger Optus will be next time bidding starts, should they get the NRL this time. They'll have a good chunk of Foxs' current subscription base that Fox will want back and Optus will want to keep. Both Fox and Optus (and anyone else) would be looking at NRL as a content leader for their product.

Point being, Optus don't need to bid as much as Fox. They can offer other things of value such as exposure. And long term, stronger competition is only better for all sports in the future. As proof of this, look at how much money and resources News put into obtaining sporting content in 1995-1997, and ensuring they were the only big player in the game.

As docbrown and insert.pause keep saying, if the NRL play their cards right, News' fear will drive them to pay more. And the fear is strong in them.

 

[Last Week]

Long post. Sorry guys.

 

[insert.pause]

Newscorpse back on the offensive tomorrow, Wilson still rambling on about Grant and Smith, despite the latter being gone for a month now, no doubt more fabricated nonsense & half truths. I can't recall the last article she wrote that didn't include Dave Smith. Very bizarre obsession.

Kent whinging about Grant and the Australian coaching job, because the telegraph suddenly care about international football...

Newscorp obviously feeling scorned over the ARLC's indifference toward their proposal, arrogantly expecting them to have just fallen into line and come running because they said so.

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

I just dont believe that Optus couldnt leverage $200m a year when they have a yearly turnover of almost $9billion...

Of course they dont have the financial power of NewsLtd, but they would still be able to compete for this relatively low level (in the grand scheme) product.

Whether they would be willing to front that for the NRL is another question, but in reality that kind of purchase is necessary if they intend to compete with Telstra and NewsLtd in these media markets.

 

[Hello, I'm The Doctor]

Newscorpse back on the offensive tomorrow, Wilson still rambling on about Grant and Smith, despite the latter being gone for a month now, no doubt more fabricated nonsense & half truths. I can't recall the last article she wrote that didn't include Dave Smith. Very bizarre obsession.

Kent whinging about Grant and the Australian coaching job, because the telegraph suddenly care about international football...

Newscorp obviously feeling scorned over the ARLC's indifference toward their proposal, arrogantly expecting them to have just fallen into line and come running because they said so.

Can you post it?? i dont like clicking Telegraph articles.