NFT- 4th Cricket Test

[Bring it home Knights]

The games all of a sudden come back to life. There is a chance australia will win it now. It looked like it was going to be a high scoring draw. But now a result is a good chance for either team.

 

[The Colonel]

If Australia are to win the game they will have to acheive the highest fourth innings run chase in history. With Langer, Hayden, Katich and Ponting all in quite good form and Steve Waugh wanting to go out a winner in his last test I am not one to count them out no matter what the odds at this point in time. It is possible to score 431 off 90 overs - however they have to counter Kumble early and put him off his game to have any hope what so ever.

This has the makings off one of the most dramatic finishes in Test cricket history

 

[Bring it home Knights]

If Australia are to win the game they will have to acheive the highest fourth innings run chase in history. With Langer, Hayden, Katich and Ponting all in quite good form and Steve Waugh wanting to go out a winner in his last test I am not one to count them out no matter what the odds at this point in time. It is possible to score 431 off 90 overs - however they have to counter Kumble early and put him off his game to have any hope what so ever.

This has the makings off one of the most dramatic finishes in Test cricket history

We also have gilchrist and martin. Both have a joined avg over over 100 and gilchrist is due for runs and lee and gillespie are no mugs with the bat. It will be a very tough ask, but the pitch is still very much a batting wicket. So come on boys, you can do it.

 

[Danish Moo Cow]

Martin who?

Everything hinges on the first session tomorrow. Kumble's Sunday/Monday was amazing, but I have some hope in MacGuill's inability to get more than the one wicket in the afternoon. Still, with the risks that will have to be taken, I'm not really going to go out and bet on it.

At least the game is out of Lee's hands now.

 

[antonius]

I wonder if Waugh will tell the team to go for broke and chase the total? It would be a big gamble to do that, because chasing 5 an over on the last day of a test in Sydney is a huge ask, in all honesty I can't see it happening, but I would be happy to be proved wrong. Imagine if they did it, now that would be the ultimate way for Waugh to end his career. No doubt the team would want to have a go, but they will go about it the way Waugh tells them, so it's down to him.

 

[Doctor]

I wonder if Waugh will tell the team to go for broke and chase the total?

It isn't done as blatantly as that. I would suggest to you that it would go like this:

Waugh: "So who here thinks we can't win this match?"
Team: [silence]
Waugh: "I agree"

The deal is done, they go for a win.

My prediction: The first session plays a crucial role. Australia will score at 120 runs a session if they are chasing down the target - if Australia are say 1/140 at lunch then it will be all systems go.

If however, they are 3/100 or 4/120 at lunch then after the break I would suggest they will battle out a draw. It will be very interesting in either case but pay attention to these factors:

- Australia will score fast anyway. They can score fast enough to win, provided they don't lose wickets.

- Kumble will be dynamite on this wicket. Eight wickets on a 3rd and 4th day pitch points towards a tough challenge for Australia. He is in control of his bowling (unlike MacGill) and therefore presents the biggest obstacle to an unlikely Australian victory.

- As I said: The first session is crucial and sets the match up. Wickets will hurt Australia but if only 1 wicket is down at lunch then Australia may consider themselves an outside chance - 1st session is absolutely vital.

- Add into the mix the form of Hayden, Ponting, and the Waugh, Gilchrist and Katich factors. Some will score their runs quickly with singles, others with big shots - the emphasis will be on not losing wickets but maintaining a brisk run rate.

At the end of the day I won't be at all surprised by either a draw or an Indian victory. But Australia has made a historical reputation from chasing big scores and never conceeding a match - I just don't think they will give up until it becomes near-impossible.

It's time for Waugh

 

[The Colonel]

Amen to that.....

 

[The_Ben]

I'm afraid to say it.

Australia all out by 3pm. Top scorer, Ricky Ponting with 53.

The rest will probably crumble away quicker than those cracks in the SCG pitch.

 

[antonius]

Indias run rate yesterday was 4.9 per over, we do that we win, trouble is as Oswin points out they have Kumble we didn't. Whatever happens,today this series has been great for cricket, ups' and downs in every test, just a shame the first one was wrecked by bad weather. The Indians proved most experts wrong, they were not the easy beats most of them predicted they'd be.

I notice Sam you are warming to those little emoticons ;-)

 

[astrogirl]

I've been told that the highest ever 4th innings total, successfully chased, at the SCG is around 270.

Disclaimer: my source may be unreliable.

 

[Doctor]

I notice Sam you are warming to those little emoticons ;-)

Oh, I have always enjoyed their presence, but not as a substitute for verbalising what people wish to say - supplementary illustrations to emphasise a point or provide context to words - but not as the primary means of communicating opinion (as many seem to think). :lol:

I've been told that the highest ever 4th innings total, successfully chased, at the SCG is around 270.

Sounds about right - 1890s I think it was done in. But you just never know about these things. I struggle to understand how the Indians can make 2/200 or more on such a pitch (quickly too) and yet Australia may be bowled out quicker or for a similar figure.

 

[antonius]

1897-98 season against England they scored 4 for 270. the most recent victory there to win with a score around that mark was again against England in 1979-80 scoring 4 for 219, so going on those sort of figures it is a big ask. Watching the highlights again last night it's almost sureal how Lee had two almost indentical overs in each innings taking wickets off no balls, and then having near identical catches dropped in the same over. Those misses have cost Australia dearly in this match. I also see people again have Martyns head on the chopping block, he is pretty consistant IMO, but one failure and out come his knockers.

 

[Doctor]

1897-98 season against England they scored 4 for 270. the most recent victory there to win with a score around that mark was again against England in 1979-80 scoring 4 for 219, so going on those sort of figures it is a big ask. Watching the highlights again last night it's almost sureal how Lee had two almost indentical overs in each innings taking wickets off no balls, and then having near identical catches dropped in the same over. Those misses have cost Australia dearly in this match. I also see people again have Martyns head on the chopping block, he is pretty consistant IMO, but one failure and out come his knockers.

Martyn's problem, prior to this test, was that he was very average - but average not in the sense that he was hopeless but that his lowest score in 12 months was 21 and his highest was the 70 odd (not out) he made in Brisbane - no centuries and only two 50s. His 7 from 45 balls finally highlighted his form for everyone. I think his spot is under pressure, but he will still have his position for the next test tour - he will know that if he doesn't start producing then the likes of Lehmann and Clarke will nab the spot off him.

I think when you're facing the prospect of losing a home series for the first time in goodness knows how long, you have to begin to question what went wrong.

- The loss of McGrath and Warne
- The loss mid-match of key bowlers
- The way the Indians have played MacGill and the loose bowling MacGill has given them
- The missed opportunities in the field, plus wickets on no-ball

but importantly:
- India's batsmen have batted superbly and deserve a great deal of congratulations for their performances. Their batting line up is statiscally better than Australias.

Until people put all this together, Australians will be looking for a scapegoat. MacGill is one (but I think he will be goooonnnee anyway) and Martyn is potentially another. Lee will be wanting to start controlling the ball also.

 

[antonius]

Yeh fair enough Sam, don't know about Lehmann coming back in the near future, I would like to see Clarke in the side sooner rather than later though, I think he is ready for test cricket, he's perfomed well in one dayers, and handled the A side well also. Clarke should get the place vacated by Waugh IMO.

 

[Danish Moo Cow]

Lehman is getting on and is terribly unfit, but, if he gets back, I'd like to see him given another year in test cricket just to blood Clarke. Clarke is a talent, but he doesn't have the cool head in the extended form of the game yet. What's his first class average? 37? One more year.

 

[antonius]

So far so good, Langer has been belting a few fours around the place, and so far 0 for 44, so they are on track.

 

[astrogirl]

Yesterday I laughed at a workmate, who is adamant that Australia can win this.

Am now looking at Aus RR 4.69 and required RR 4.72. I may end up looking foolish if we don't lose any quick wickets, and there are no further rain delays!

EDIT: Hayden out as soon as I posted this.

 

[antonius]

Hayden out caught off Kumble's bowling by Dravid.

 

[antonius]

Langer gone, 2 for 92. So while run wise we're on track the wickets are falling, I'd say another one or two and the shutters will come up.

 

[northey]

oh bugger